Mohamed El-Erian Thinks the U.S. Federal Reserve Should Cut Rates ASAP

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01. the Federal Reserve is hinting that it's ready to lower interest rates but just not yet the FED held the Benchmark rates steady for the eighth month in a row and the chair says dran pal Central bank's paying close attention now to its dual mandate stable prices and low unemployment now he points out that the pace of job growth has moderated and is now starting to look at the rate of unemployment both will be up for discussion in September the question question will be whether the totality of the data the evolving Outlook and the balance of risks are consistent with Rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market if that test is met a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September we're balancing the risk of going too soon against the risk of going too late that's what we're doing there's no guarantee in this it's a very difficult judgment call but this is this is how we're making it Muhammad Al and president of Queen's College uh C so the question is is the time right in September a yes or a no will do sir yes absolutely he should have done it today ah well yes but could have should have would have but but I mean he it would be very difficult now wouldn't it very difficult for them not to cut in the absence of some truly Dreadful data that comes out they have set their stall out yes normally it would be very difficult to cut for three reasons one is the inflation picture has improved two is the economy is weakening and three is that he did not push back against September he leaned into it so you would need to get really horrific numbers for him not to cut in September so let's say they cut in September do we have a bit of a caution R tail from Europe where the ECB has cut inflation has ticked up and we've seen a similar sort of thing from from the the Bank of Canada where again cuts have been led by upticks in inflation and there's an argument that would say the same would be you know in in in an economy that is actually very active like the US the same could happen here it could and today we got a number out of Europe that showed inflation went up from 2.5 to 2.6 % it could but you know Richard it's a balance of risk right now and I think the bigger risk and more and more people are agreeing on this is that the economy will weaken unnecessarily if they do not cut so yes there is a risk that inflation could go up but the bigger risk is that if they're not careful the US economic exceptionalism that has benefited so many goes out the window because they're too tight for too long there is a risk I mean there's always a risk you know there's a risk of could out trip over my shoelaces going out of this studio and and doing myself a nasty injury but in terms of the risk there's a risk that they cut in September and probably once once or twice more before the end of the year but it's not enough to offset that slowdown to which you refer but it is enough to just sort of boost it or at least prevent inflation coming further down yes yes and and I would put that risk at about 35% so yes the risk is there look what you want to avoid is what you're hearing from the companies whether it's PepsiCo whether it's Starbucks whether it's McDonald's they're all giving you the same message that the consumer is weakening the lowincome households in particular are under significant pressure credit card balances are high pandemic savings have been run down and if you weaken the labor market that's the only thing keeping the economy going right now for that segment of the population so that's what you want to avoid which the market we are seeing I mean all right so Nvidia etc etc has done extremely well and there's a bit of ferocity in terms of the way it's coming down do you see this rotation continuing because but at the end of the day I mean the the future is AI the future is these productivity gains is this just a temporary blip no so I I think there are three drivers of this Market one is that AI is real and it is like you say a significant contributor to Future productivity I think that is a real phenomenon two is that the US exceptionals will continue that's why you've seen the rotation that's why you've seen the Russell do so well best month of the year at a time when the NASDAQ was having the worst month of the year so that's been quite a rotation and then the third element is confidence that the FED will loosen policy so as long as those three things are in play then can get both the AI story continuing and also the rotation story but the US economic exceptionalism avoiding a recession is really important to the story to to to to take that your that answer and sort of put it into strategy there is there is no need if all those three criteria are met there is no need for panic or concern about if you will the strength of this Market yeah we may have 10% correction whatever we may have a bit of a bit of turbulence but the core is solid correct and that's why avoiding a new policy mistake is so important because the core of the economy is relatively solid the core of the markets is solid and what would undermine both in a serious manner is the Fed remaining too tight for too long not in a party political sense but as you look at both C Harris's agenda and you look at Donald Trump's agenda um I I'll give you a nice anonymous anod question all right you can take it anywhere you like upside down or avoid it and plead the fifth what are your concerns so I think the biggest difference between the two Richard is what they are talking about on tariffs tariffs on trade um president Trump has a much more aggressive stance than vice president Harris on that so that I think is where the major difference is against that there's a view that Trump would be better for deregulation so the market isn't betting on either side it's really interesting because they're saying at the end of the day there's there's pros there's cons so the market is simply waiting to see how this election is going to go finally I read chair Powell's comments we see no politics we hear no politics we are just data dependent um come on they sit around the table they even if they don't overtly say it they've got in the back of their mind that there is an election within two months and it's a bitter bitter election how do they avoid not doing it so if you listen carefully what he said he said all all that you said he said of course we do scenario analysis you know the scenario analysis are the what ifs what if president Trump wins what if vice president Harris wins so they may not be putting it in that Baseline they may not be forming policy on that basis but they are running scenario analysis I'm trying to figure out which way um the economy would go depending on who would win but they're not betting on a particular outcome and just before I love you and leave you September done deal you think rates going going going down just to be clear yes yes and if and and if they don't then we'll be talking about a policy mistake and we don't need one right now good to see you sir very grateful as always you've given us the time thank you good to see you keep thank you