저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
Kevin이 2021년 자신의 옵션 손실 사례(테슬라 콜, 핀터레스트, Redfin, Invitae 등)를 공개하며 내재변동성 관리의 중요성을 강조. 현재 대부분 종목은 수익 상태이며 옵션 비중을 줄이고 일부 익절했다고 설명. 특정 자산의 향후 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Hi everyone, this is Kevin. A couple of weeks ago I promised in the comments that I would make a video showing my losers. Because we talk a lot about new investment ideas. We talk a lot about companies that we're really excited about, like Tesla, Enphase, Amazon, Apple, you name it. Etsy, Affirm , some of these companies that we simply love.
We don't pay much attention to the ones we think we'll love and then turn out not to be so loved. So, in this video I'm going to talk about the losers and the lessons I've learned so far in 2021 and the mistakes I promise not to repeat. As with all these losses, there are lessons to be learned, and the first one I'm going to start with is one that seemed like it was going to be the biggest loser of the year but actually took a turn, but there's a great lesson in this, okay?
On April 20, 2021, I purchased many Tesla purchase options. One month later, after spending nearly $2 million on Tesla purchase options , this is what it looked like. A month later, the $2 million in options had turned into minus $ 955,000. That is, we went from 2 million to about 867,000, approximately 2 million.
This was when I still owned Peloton, which I sold. I sold Peloton completely for about 113, which I'm very happy I did. But anyway, check out these Tesla options. They are absolutely horrible. And some are so incredibly out of the money, and were so incredibly out of the money that when Tesla dropped to 500, I thought, "Oh, this will never get to 1,200.
This will never get to 1,500." And the problem here was that I bought this, and here's the lesson. I bought these call options while volatility was decreasing, but it hadn't bottomed out yet. Because remember friends, Tesla or options in general are not only priced based on the actual stock price, but also on the expected or implied volatility at any given time.
And so , just like with price, the general rule when it comes to options is to buy low and sell high. You want to buy options when volatility is low. You want to sell options when volatility is high. Unfortunately, I bought these options when Tesla was trading at around $715 per share. And then Tesla went down, well, it fell to about 550, before going back up to about 750 per share.
And one would think, "Oh, the price went up." "Your options should have been in the green when Tesla was at 750 a few months later, right? " Well, no, because volatility continued to plummet. These options have been in the red all year since the beginning of October. Now, I wanted to make this video a few weeks ago.
If I had made this video a few weeks ago, these Tesla options would still have been pretty much in the red. And I'm going to show you some that are still in the red, some contracts and investments I made that are still in the red . But it's worth noting that I've closed the vast majority of my Tesla options just to show you that they've all turned green.
Just look at the highest one, the one that's most overpriced. This is the 1725 call option. In a matter of three weeks, this has changed because Tesla's volatility skyrocketed. This one now has a 92% profit. Remember that in the last image, it was like a 90% loss. This shows them the incredible volatility to which they can be exposed.
There, it had a loss of 67.45%. There you have it. But anyway, it shows them the crazy volatility they could be exposed to with options. And a big lesson here is to pay attention to implied volatility. If you invest in options and don't pay attention to volatility charts and historical volatility , you're lost.
You can sign up for —and this is not a sponsorship—but you can sign up for something like Alpha Query and you can track this kind of thing. But pay attention to this. But now I have some other options that are still at rock bottom and are doing very , very badly. And these are options like my Pinterest options.
Take a look at this. Here's a Pinterest option I have that cost me $38,000. It has dropped by 94%. However, I've wanted to get rid of Pinterest for about 4 months now. But what's really annoying is that I fell for this Pinterest fallacy that I would go back to 80 and then sell. Well, the problem is that I should have sold it as soon as I realized it, which I realized about three or four months ago.
I thought, "Uh oh, Pinterest search trends are down, website traffic is down, app usage is down." " All these metrics were trending downwards , which is a really, really bad sign." Those same metrics are the reason why I sold my entire Peloton at the same time I should have sold Pinterest, but didn't .
I kept it. Now I'm carrying losses of probably $200,000 in Pins options and stock that are worthless. Well, it's not that they're worthless . I mean, I have about $200,000 left, but I probably lost a couple hundred thousand in Pins. And in fact, I think my base was around 70, but even though it hasn't halved since 70, when options fall, they fall more .
So, yes. Pins has been a loss for me and, although it's a shame, I've already gotten over it. So, oh well . Now, another one that has been a loss, I'm going to look for her right now. Wow, Redfin. Alright. So, Redfin has been a big winner for me in terms of stocks. I bought it at around 10, 20 and 30, and now it's trading at around 50.
And I bought it all at the beginning of the pandemic. I thought Redfin's fall was ridiculous, especially since I saw the real estate sector rising. Uh, it wasn't going down. But, unfortunately, recently, in April, yes, it was in April. In April, I spent some money on Tesla, sorry, on Redfin purchase options as well.
Because I wanted to get off the margin, so I sold some shares and bought options instead. Well, unfortunately, this cost me $127,000 and right now it's down 43% on a Redfin call option. It 's not great. So I'm not very happy with the Redfin purchase option either . So, Redfin options, Pinterest options, basically a big failure.
I have this Neo purchase option, which I also bought at a less than ideal time because I paid a huge amount for this contract. So , even though it's a $30 Neo buy option, I've actually lost $650 on it. I'm basically breaking even, since I invested $111,000 in it. But even so, it shows that I probably bought this option without paying attention to what the implied volatility was and was probably at a high point, which is a big mistake.
Similarly, I have a $50 Lemonade call option, but I paid a lot of money for that option contract. In fact, let me see when it was executed. Here, let's see, do I have it? I have 45 of these. This was carried out, yes, on May 12 and April 20. Although May 12th was a terrible time for the market, volatility increased.
So, once again , volatility played a trick on me here. But this has decreased by about 14%. This just shows them another loss right here. Let's look for another one. One more. Sometimes we were, and of course we expected, a year-end upswing here. But I did sell a couple of covered call positions . And those, unfortunately, are not going so well at the moment.
Take a look here, for example. This is an example. I don't have all my Enphase and Etsy shares listed here, as I own approximately 1.8 million of each. But this only shows some of the most recent purchases. But I did make a covered call on Enphase. I got a $20,000 loan, I mean. It was a $20,000 loan.
For Enphase. I think it was something like that. Yes, it was...there it is. That's 10 contracts at 2120. So I got $21,000 as a credit for agreeing to sell Enphase at $ 210 in January. Now, I'll probably lose those 1,000 shares. They are going to exercise my option. So what I'll do is , because that contract has lost about 96% of its value, which isn't a big deal.
I'm not going to sell it with that 20K loss. But instead, what I'll probably do is sell put options on Enphase since volatility has increased a bit. And that's how something like this might work to try and offset the pain of having sold a call option on a stock that's going up. We know that volatility has increased.
I can log in here to Enphase and now I can sell weekly put options on this. So let's go to 240, say. At 240, I will sell a put option on this for $6.20. I was paid $21 per share for selling Enphase at 210. That leaves me at a break-even point of about 231. If I can step in here and sell a put option at 240 and make $6.20, it might be worth it.
Especially if I'm not assigned next Friday and then I have to do it again . And I just do it week after week after week and take advantage of this increased volatility by selling put options . And in the worst-case scenario, I'm assigned the shares, I own them, and then those are the ones that end up being withdrawn, right?
Obviously, I know that these figures are potentially a little less easy to relate to. For example, if I come in here with 240*10*100, that's $240,000 that I would potentially commit to putting into Enphase in exchange for $6. It's not a great return. $ 6.20 divided by 240 is about 2.6%, but I'm also a little protected.
It's about $2 more because the stock price is about $2 higher. So, it's really like a three ... well, let's call it a 3% return to get $6,200 here. And in the worst-case scenario, I have to buy these shares next Friday. So, it's something to consider. You could also go, let's see, today. Ah, that's tomorrow.
If it expires tomorrow, I get $2,300. If I extend it until the 19th, I would get $10,000. So this would be a way to expose myself to the possibility of acquiring more Enphase shares. If it goes up, I keep the credit. If it doesn't go up, I'll buy the shares and let them end up being called in January.
That would be something to consider. So this is what I 'm doing to try and resolve the fact that I have a sold call option that is now in the red. So, that's something you can do. Okay, let's go to Robinhood. I have some options that have lost money on Robinhood. Let's see here. Let's go full performance.
And let's look for something... oh, yes. There are some that have caused a lot of pain around here. Specifically this one. This is Invite. My God, they destroyed me. My mistake here was that I don't understand biotechnology. I'm not interested in biotechnology. I don't claim to know much about biotechnology or therapeutics.
But in Invite, I said to myself: "I'm going all in" on this one. This is simply a risky bet that went wrong, okay? I put...what did I put? I put $66,000 into this option on April 20th. So, volatility has decreased substantially, right? And right now, it says my total return is... -54%. Wait, how come if I put in $66,000, my capital is still only $55,000?
What 's going on here, Robinhood? I don't know, because this order appears as cancelled. Oh, 34 executed. Ah, okay. So I paid much more than 66,000. I probably put in about $100,000 or something like that and I've lost about 54%. I must have invested about $130,000 in this contract and I only have about $ 55,000 left.
So I definitely got ripped off when I bought a contract here. Again, it was due to not paying attention to volatility, but also because of entering a stock that probably went up because of the hype and momentum. So that was a bit of a blow. Very similar to CRISPR, oops, that's definitely the wrong button.
I'm sorry. Here we go. I didn't mean to put that. Here we go. CRISPR, return on capital of $35,000, down 56% on that. Yes, so I learned my lesson with those. That was a mistake. Hippo, uh, Hippo is a little down, maybe $20,000. There is another Redfin purchase option that is down about 22,000. Ubiquity down $13,000.
That 's not so bad. Uh, what's another good one ? Oh yeah, this was stupid. So , I really only invest in Tesla when it comes to electric vehicles and Nio. And I thought it would be a good idea to buy an out-of-the-money call option in GM to have a long-term option, a leap, in its self-driving division , Chevy Cruise.
Yes, well, that was a big failure. That one is down 61% or $34,000. So, uh, these are my losers right now . I'm very grateful that, uh, right now I do n't have that many options. In fact, here, let me show you my portfolio. One second. So this spreadsheet represents the capital I have left in options.
Uh, it's around $1.2 million, and the ones that are really in the red right now are Redfin, GM, Invitae, Ubiquity for about $13,000, Hippo a little bit, $ 20,000. Uh, AI, I just added it. And some of the selling options are slightly reversed, like in PayPal and Pins, but I have Pins contracts somewhat lower.
And the others are pretty good . But those are some of my losses. And what I've noticed is that most of my stocks are doing relatively well. With the exception of Pinterest, most stocks are doing very well. So, now, if I had shares in CRISPR or Invitae , I think they would be doing quite badly . But otherwise, my major holdings, my Enphase, Tesla, Amazon, Apple, Etsy, Affirm, some of my most conviction-driven companies, are doing very, very well.
Likewise, I say, Lemonade has recently gone up, I think, because of the car insurance news . That was good. Uh, Robinhood has n't been doing well. That's it, that's another one that's been like, oh man, I should have sold that thing at 70, which is really funny because I sold call options on Robinhood when it went up to $70.
I bought it for about 34, thinking, "My God, what a huge drop in quality ." Even though it's around 36 at the moment. It went up to $70, and I said, "Oh, this is perfect." I'm going to sell call options. I should have just sold the stock. Although I made about 99% profit from selling call options, I was limited.
And the stock fell further. So, I was still losing money because I owned the shares, but obviously selling the option helped to cover that position a little. So, that was somewhat disappointing. But, Robinhood has been a bit of a loser. Robinhood has not been good. Pinterest hasn't been good. And some short-term plays in some of these therapeutic options have been a problem.
And it's worth noting that if you make a mistake with the options and don't pay attention to the volatility chart, you'll probably end up ruined with the options. Options trading is a great way to lose money very quickly if you're not careful. Now, that has led me to take profits quite liberally and frequently on options, sometimes potentially too early.
As with Tesla, I staggered when I was taking profits. I took profits on a few call options at 950, 1025, 1075, 1100, 1150, and 1200. Just every time I saw one of these new highs, I'd say, okay, I'm going to sell one of my options. Okay, I'll sell one of my options. I still have some left. I have the one I showed you before, and then I have a $700 Tesla purchase option .
That one has gone up by about 35,000 . And the other one has gone up, what was it?, like 100,000 or something like that. Those are great. I still have them, but yeah, I mean, look, I could have made more money if I had held those options longer, but I've been so burned out by the idea of how red these options were for so long that I say, "Okay, now I've made money with them." They all turned green.
I'm going to take the profits. "And I think that 's a really important thing in investment culture, realizing that if we have options, it's a good idea to take profits, because options can move very, very quickly to the downside. And if we're trading on margin, it's okay to sell to liquidate your margin.
Right now, I'm at zero margin, and I'm very happy about that. Zero margin, and I've really reduced my margin options, which is good. I still swing trade options, but my options position right now—I'll give you a percentage here so you have an idea. My options, uh, as a percentage of my portfolio, 1.2, which is about 4%.
So, I'm at 4% in options right now . And in crypto, I'm right there, I'm almost at 4%. Almost 4% in crypto. So , this gives you a little bit of an idea of my breakdown. And most of that, uh, Ethereum, Bitcoin, Ada, right? But, this gives you a little bit of a breakdown of my portfolio. Some of the losses , some of the mistakes I've made.
Yeah, If I added up the losses on Pinterest and some of these other options, it would probably be losses of around $400,000, maybe even a little more. Uh, so those are some real losses, right? But, uh, fortunately, they're offset by gains in other things. Substantial gains in other things. Yes, my JP Morgan account.
I'm going to show it very quickly, just to teach. Because sometimes people say, "Oh, if you don't show it, it didn't happen." So, oh my God, there's so much skepticism online these days. Uh, whatever. But, uh, yeah, if you look at my JP Morgan, I'm going to show this right here. So, this is my JP Morgan.
Because people, I think people often say, "Oh, you only make money from YouTube." "Or whatever . People just get skeptical. They think, maybe they're having a bad day or something. But anyway, uh, you can see here in this $20.6 million account, $13.6 million of it is profit. Uh, so obviously we're doing something right.
Which is great. But, yeah. That doesn't mean there aren't some losing bets that come along with the profits. And, uh, if I can learn from the losers and learn from the winners, that's a good thing. Alright, folks. I hope you learned something from this video. And thank you for watching. See you in the next one. Thanks again. Bye. Oh."
Comments 0