저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준이 테이퍼링 일정을 발표해 11월 150억 달러씩 축소, 2022년 6월경 완료 예상. 금리 인상은 테이퍼 완료 후로 예상되며 인플레이션은 2022년 2~3분기에 둔화될 것으로 전망. 수요는 강하고 고용은 회복 여지가 있으나 공급병목은 내년까지 지속 가능성. 발언자는 암호화폐가 2022년 중반까지 강세일 것으로 보며 비트코인 20, 이더리움 40, 카르다노 40 비중을 유지한다고 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here here's a summary of everything jerome powell just said and announced so first the taper schedule is out we're going from 120 billion dollars a month of stimulus money that's money being printed and injected into the economy at a rate of 80 billion dollars to treasuries a 40 billion to mortgage-backed securities which just think of those as slices of mortgages sold off as bonds so you're paying interest to bond holders not to banks but anyway this 120 billion pot is being reduced by 15 billion 10 billion off of treasuries 5 billion off of mortgage-backed securities expecting to reduce this 15 billion in november 15 billion in december those two have been decided and are likely expecting to see the taper continue at a rate of 15 billion dollars each month thereafter that would put us around june when we would be completely tapered john powell does not want to talk about liftoff or when interest rates will actually go up until we have completely tapered because otherwise he sees that as it could like it doesn't make sense that'd be cognitive dissidence to be printing money and stimulating the economy at the same time is making that money more expensive by raising rates he doesn't see that as logical so they're going to complete their taper first which there was a reference and this becomes very very important there was a reference to jerome powell why are you tapering at twice the rate that you tapered at when we first had a taper in 2013.
and he said his response was actually very bullish he said in this economy demand is very strong job openings are plenty and we are still years from 20 uh i mean we that we are today years from the 2013 levels uh that we were in uh in a very positive way that is in 2013 the economy still had to grow for years to get to levels of demand where it is now this was really bullish and we actually saw stocks like tesla and the s p 500 right when that comment was made by jerome powell that demand is very strong we saw markets move up markets like this so far markets have been pretty optimistic about all the things that were talked about here we did have a shift in the verbiage that's used in the fed statements we shifted from using the word transitory to expecting inflation to be transitory and spending more time talking about the rationale as to why the fed believes that inflation is going to go down and so this helps make the fed seem a lot less tone-deaf about inflation happening you know when they're like oh yeah inflation's transitory and inflation data is coming in really really high and we expect inflation data to come in high in quarter one and quarter two then it makes the feds seem like they're morons which some of you may still believe is true you know regardless but anyway now they're talking about how look we expect inflation to rotate down in the second and third quarter of 2022 it's taking longer than anybody forecast in in markets that they talk to that is their market participants or their forecasters thought they're seeing this inflation take longer to rotate down but they do think that in the second and third quarter inflation will rotate down and that will come at the perfect point when the taper has completed and then the fed will say okay good the taper has completed now we're in a position where we can talk about raising rates how much inflation do we actually have left now that we're in june of 2022 how much inflation is left do we actually have to aggressively raise rates or can we take our time with raising rates because maybe the fed was right and inflation did end up inflecting to the downside in the second and third quarter of 2022 uh which by the way gives us in my opinion a little bit of a time frame for crypto that crypto's still going to enjoy the benefit of high inflation readings for q few uh q4 uh q1 and q2 but that that inflection might not come around until that summer that midpoint of 2020 uh two so we'll keep an eye on that obviously all right then uh he talks about let's see here a lot of different things so let's let's just get into the summary of some of these things so household and business investments flattened in october however uh businesses and households have very strong financials or in strong financial conditions sees covid receding further and that growth should actually pick up from last month in in this quarter here which last month is still part of this quarter but growth should pick up and that's because we're escaping that delta surge that we had in august and a little bit of september that also led the markets to really soften uh and spending to soften he says that the pace of economic growth as a result of that has slowed but again we're expecting that to go up we're expecting to see job gains closer to averages averages are somewhere around 550 to 600 000 in jobs gains last two months we've been in the 100 thousands and in the summer we in june july we were at a million jobs so we've got some work to do and hopefully this friday we get some positive news on jobs data this friday that's in two days we will be getting the jobs report 4.8 percent unemployment he believes understates the amount of unemployment there actually is he thinks there's more employment or unemployment and that's because people have left the labor force you've got more retirements less participation participation amongst prime aged workers is down some of this could be due to be due to fears of covid uh having stronger financial positions in households because household wealth has gone up by a real estate in stocks or potentially because people are still caring for older family or children who cannot get covert vaccinated yet now others including barons make actually the opposite argument that the federal reserve is overstating how much unemployment there is because the fed is actually not properly able to track how much new business creation there is and how many people are just going off and working for themselves and that right now comparing right now to 2019 we're creating 50 percent more businesses every single month than we did in 2019 uh and that pace was pretty strong during the pandemic as well it was even higher anyway uh he does mention that and so anyway the point of that is is really that you could potentially have the fed missing the boat on employment that employment is actually much higher than it looks according to their numbers so they think employment is actually the employment reports are worse and behrens thinks no they could actually be better than you think so we're kind of in opposite directions there on jobs and that could have a big factor in inflation even though we expect consumer price inflation to go down next summer we actually don't expect wages and rents to go down so you're going to have this sort of negative growth of prices in my opinion on things like cars you know durables like washing machines or appliances or computers or hardware or whatever and chips you see prices of these things come down but i think you'll probably still see wages and rents trickle up which will still contribute to inflation right john powell does say that high inflation does propose some difficulties for those who can can't afford or don't have the means to afford essentials like food and transportation he says that our tools cannot solve supply issues however over time we believe we can support the economy to essentially lead that inflation to come down so that the supply chain issue has become more normal he indicates also that they have a completely different set and more stringent requirements outlined for when they're going to raise rates again we don't expect that to happen at all until some point next year probably the third or fourth quarter of 2022 for the first sort of rate increase and that's going to depend on how much inflation goes down by the summer that'll be the big indicator he does believe that supply bottlenecks will last well into next year but we expect that inflation to go down in the second or third quarter he says we could be patient no direct signal is being given on rates and he doesn't believe that we're going to see a wage price spiral where prices are going up therefore wages are going to spiral up and because wages are spiraling up now prices have to go up because he sees productivity still is increasing which is good he didn't want to give exact conditions for what they mean by max employment but i think a lot of this is just going to have to do with waiting out to see how supply chain issues change over the next six months before we get to a potential talk about raising rates now uh then jerome powell mentions that if anything changes in the economy he will use whatever tools he has available so if they have to adjust the pace of taper that is taper faster because inflation is lasting even longer or tapers slower because inflation is starting to subside then he will do so obviously if they needed to raise rates immediately because inflation just exploded they could just taper 100 tomorrow with emergency action jump rates immediately if they needed to if they just missed the boat that badly and i would expect something like that would probably lead to some panic in the market though it doesn't look like that is something the market's really anticipating or expecting right now otherwise we'd see bond yields higher bond yields right now not really reacting uh as much as you would think because when the fed starts talking about tapering it means they put less pressure on bond prices which means bond prices go down which means yields go up and the yields haven't really gone up i mean the 10-year 1.59 it's kind of where it's been sitting for the last like two or three months here it's maybe not two or three months but at least the last two months it's been sitting a little flat there but anyway uh okay then we have uh a little bit of talk about how labor dynamics have certainly changed but that jerome powell actually thinks we could end up seeing a winter bump uh or winter yeah winter bump in in jobs that if we don't have a covet surge this winter we might see hiring explode this winter and if hiring explodes this winter then we could we could end up having getting to max unemployment or sorry max employment sooner and that would be good for not only gdp growth but potentially dealing with our supply chain issues remember folks if amazon can hire more workers or logistics companies can hire more workers it means we can actually clear our supply chain issues faster so in a crazy way even though sometimes the market's like oh my gosh we're adding so many jobs are we overheating we want to see jobs added because the more jobs get added the more hands we have on the supply chain issues people stocking shelves people distributing people taking stuff off container ships whatever right or taking containers off of ships whatever and uh and then then we can work our way through these supply chain issues faster and that means the more we get people employed the sooner we can actually see the supply chain issues abate we're still going to see those wage pressures going up but we'll we should start seeing those consumer prices come down substantially and that would be really nice for markets of course until that happens we expect cryptocurrencies to do very very well uh through around the middle of 2022.
uh i i still support sort of the position that i have for crypto which is 20 bitcoin uh 40 aetherium and 40 cardano i have a little bit of rebalancing to do because i'm transitioning between wallets right now and i just paid off all my margin but i just wanted to give an update on that but i still feel that way so uh okay good that uh that gives us a breakdown of what jerome powell just said and what happened at the federal reserve
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