저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Faber는 관세가 소비자 물가와 인플레이션을 높이고 미국 재정지출 삭감 여력이 제한적이라며 비관적이다. 미국 주식 밸류에이션은 역사적으로 가장 비싸고 글로벌 경기는 호황이 아니라고 본다. 신흥국은 미국 관세에 반발할 것이라 보며, 금광주는 금 강세에 뒤처져 있다고 언급했다. 홍콩 부동산은 무차입 가족기업 중심이라 긍정적으로 전환했다고 한다. 백금은 금 대비 역사적 저평가 상태이며 커피·코코아 같은 소규모 시장의 급등 가능성을 언급했다.
다듬은 글
I wrote my thesis for my PhD in 1969 about the financial reform of Robert Peele and the issue in 1842 Britain they had Navigation Acts and they had Corn Laws and the system of protectionism which essentially increased the cost of living of the working class to benefit essentially the rich land owners and the merchants and the Smugglers as well because protectionism brings about a lot of smuggling activity and so Robert Bill he went and under the influence of a free Trader who was influenced by Adam Smith at the time he was Scottish Richard copton they reduced tariffs or eliminated most of them they abolished the Corn Laws they abolished the Navigation Acts and brought England into a system of free trade and the loss of income they had to endure because of these duties that were no longer leved was replaced by a permanent income tax at the rate of only 7% per anom and it was levied only on a very few people in England you know like 5,000 people but no more that then brought essentially prices down for agricultural Commodities and benefited the working class we had essentially after 1870 in the world a deflationary environment where prices went down but real wages went up because wages didn't go down as much as the cost of living and so the prosperity actually increased and tariffs in general are actually very bad for an economy and I just like to point out that there are many economies that will say what caused the Great Depression in America in the 1930s they agree that obviously the smooth Sly Acts were not favorable which impos heavy tariffs on imported goods so I'd say the idea of trump maybe it's just just a Str but I'd like to point out 88% of the world's population lives in emerging economies and a large portion of that is in bricks countries and the mood towards the Western arrogance and kind of neocolonialism where Western countries metal into the domestic affairs of developing countries such as India and China and others I think is more less over and these countries when they are threatened by someone like Mr Trump in my view they will actually react and oppose these tariffs and not bend over so the resolution among emerging economies and Bricks countries will be actually the opposite of what the Arrogant American State Department thinks they think they can threaten the world but the world has changed and they will not let itself be threatened by what they perceive In America which is far from perfect it will increase the cost of living of ordinary people it will increase actually inflation and don't think that foreign countries have no power they have because the US depends on some Goods being manufactured in China Vietnam and so forth most of the expenditures of the US are mandatory in other words they have to be met like Social Security is very difficult to cut it veterans benefits Medicare and so forth to cut that is next to Impossible and how are you going to get reelected if you go and tell your pensioners your pensions will be cut by 30% so the scope actually to reduce expenditures in my opinion if they can cut a few 200 billion that would be the maximum I would think is possible the second point is that he cannot do everything himself I mean there's Congress and as you know the Democrats are mostly against him and some Republicans are also against him so whether he can push all these measures through I'm not sure and the other observation I would like to make I knew Larry Tish relatively well who was the head of and the founder of Low's Corporation and his brother was Preston Tish in the 70s Preston made the huge mistake that he wanted to do something for the community and clean up the American post office after one year he resigned in the Greek Saga Hercules he has to clean up dirt in his table and these are the tasks that mosque will be faced with to clean up the government and the unions and so forth I am very pessimistic about all these reforms but let's say even Trump is successful at everything he does the stock market has never been more pricey more expensive in terms of valuations than it is now and the global economy is not in a boom phase at all ordinary people around the world in general they're faced with Rising prices that are going up much more than what the office called BLS is publishing this is a lie what they're publishing about the CPI now Ordinary People are struggling everywhere otherwise how would you explain that the number of people who can't live decently and other words they live paycheck to paycheck has increased to the highest level ever in the US how would you explain that housing affordability in the US is at the lowest in history of the US if everything is so great why is it the housing starts and housing sales are poor because people don't have the money to buy them some of the policies that the Europeans have introduced not only in Germany but also in Spain and so and France are completely against any economic principle we live in societies we have to decide what do we want how do we want to structure our society our society meaning the social conditions of of the people in my opinion the top priority is to increase the standards of living of Ordinary People of everybody the current setup if I look at the money Printing and so for and the consequences of money printing is that we have a society where more than three quarters of society is being hurt by Rising prices rising prices are commonly called inflation but I'm careful in using the word inflation because inflation is misunderstood frequently when prices go up for consumer goods like food and so for people talk about inflation when prices of homes go up and prices of stocks and bonds they talk about the bull market you understand but the origin is suppos the same money printing look at any statistic in any country the money printing has created a class of people that is super rich and masses that are relatively poor I mean I live in Thailand I consider myself to be reasonably affluent but I can tell you there are lots of people in this world they have nothing at all not a penny and then what happened also over the last 20 30 years in many countries the rich they don't need to borrow money the only time they borrow money is to speculate because they are greedy but poor people if they want the car if they want the motorcycle even if they have an accident or so they don't have the money to buy they have to borrow and then they are in the borrowing class the class that has debts and as interest rates went up they all squeezed I've just written a report about this very high valuation in the US and low valuation elsewhere was in July of this year I wrote about major turning point in asset markets because I think that we are in a period of great turmoil with some stocks reaching major lows from where a bull market will get underway Maybe not immediately but let's say they're basing out and other stocks making major tops and among these major tops would be the fun stocks in America The Magnificent Seven semiconductor stocks and so forth and the basing stocks are more resource oriented shares and emerging economies the US has outperformed the rest of the world and especially emerging economies more than ever before and the valuation differences are huge between the valuation of the US and valuations elsewhere say one of the themes I have and I have to give you some background I've been known in Hong Kong as Dr Doom because I was mostly negative about Hong Kong becoming part of China due to the high valuation of Hong Kong I thought there would be an Arbitrage that companies would resettle into China where land was cheap and leave Hong Kong and that Hong Kong would become just another city in China and so I have a clean sheet in being negative about property stocks in Hong Kong for a long time but now this year I turned very positive about Hong Kong properties because real estate companies in Hong Kong are mostly controlled by families the families are immensely rich and they don't need to take any risks or they didn't borrow much money most of these Hong Kong property companies have actually no debts and they could withstand the significant decline in property prices which I still expect to happen but on the other hand you know the American Media is always talking negatively about China talking negatively about Hong Kong and so for but of all the cities I know in the world Hong Kong would still be a place I would go because it's relatively free it's like Thailand I live in the north of Thailand in shangai and people talk about Thailand being a failed State now this is interesting because this failed state is one of the most popular countries in the world for people to travel to and to live in the retirees are flocking here because it's a failed State yes but you have a relatively High degree of Freedom so I find it sort of dictatorial to say Thailand is a failed State yes it is in terms of economic grow rates but on the other hand in terms of Lifestyle it's not a failed State historically Platinum has traded at the premium to go gold and at the discount to gold now the discount is essentially the largest has ever been the market is much smaller than the gold market and is controlled largely by South Africa and Russia South Africa and Russia are not the closest friends of America as you can imagine and if they are being hurt by Western colonialist neoc colonialist Nations I think they could easily squeeze the market and that's why I always maintain coffee and Coco are markets that can go ballistic because they're relatively narrow markets so when the bull market starts in Coco it usually goes and becomes way overvalued same for coffee last year was the year for Coco this year for coffee next year who knows given the fact that inflation adjusted Platinum is now extremely low as low as it was in 1970 whereas gold and silver are relatively High the gold Market actually given that it's been so strong attracts little speculation this is something that surprises me is also the gold market is up for the first time gold mining shares have not participated they're underperforming and many fund managers are telling me more for the last 50 years whenever the gold market went up gold miners went up more percentage wise but not this time and I keep on telling them this is the beauty of investment markets never the same you know this changes
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