저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2023년 증시 전망: S&P500 약 20% 상승을 예상. 근거: 연초 5거래일 상승 시 연간 양의 수익률이 85% 사례에서 나타나며, 1970·2002년만 예외였다고 주장. 인플레이션 둔화: 12월 CPI 2% 대 중반 연율 추정, 임금 상승률 3.7%로 팬데믹 이전 수준 회복. 근원 CPI가 컨센서스 하회 시 연준 PCE 전망(4.8%)은 약 60bp 과대추정. 변동성: VIX가 200일선 아래로 내려오면 약 17 수준. 1950년 이후 전년 음의 수익률 후 VIX가 낮아지면 평균 22% 상승. 연준: 2월이 마지막 인상일 수 있고 이후 인하 가능성. 연준 금리 동결만으로도 채권시장은 인하 사이클 시작으로 해석, 금리 하락 및 주식 랠리 전망. 기업이익: 올해 이익 감소 가능성은 있으나 1950년 이후 주가 방향의 핵심 변수가 아니며 VIX가 더 중요하다고 봄. 시장은 악재를 선반영할 수 있음. 섹터: 테슬라 인도량 미스 후 주가가 P/E 80대에서 20대로 하락. 기술·산업재·임의소비재가 강세이며 금융 상승이 20% 랠리를 견인할 것으로 봄. 에너지는 지정학 리스크, 헬스케어는 양호하나 50% 상승은 어려움. FANG(페이스북·아마존·넷플릭스·구글 등)은 50% 상승 가능성 언급. 대형 기술주는 밸류에이션 조정이 충분했다고 판단하며 주주 구성 변화로 반등 가능성 봄. 나스닥은 S&P500 20%보다 더 오를 것으로 봄. 리스크: 2023년이 2002년형 약세장일 경우 전망이 빗나갈 수 있음. 1970·2002년 사례 언급.
다듬은 글
next guest calls this quote strong Omen for the market see stocks rallying 20 percent this year joining me now right here post nine CNBC contributor Tom Lee a fun Strat Global advisors happy New Years good to see you welcome back to you Scott so you were admittedly too bullish last year yes you are in a sense doubling down on that 20 how uh yes uh you know last year was a year where inflation shocked the markets in the first half it's come off the boil since October very soft I mean if December comes in the way we think it's probably two and two six annualized inflation now and uh and wages are coming off the boil right if we look at the employment report Friday uh they're growing at three seven which is where they were before the pandemic so the third thing that we think needs to happen is volatility needs to come down in in the vix the bond market volatility is below its 200-day if that happened in the vix we'd be at 17 and since 1950 following a negative year if the vix is lower on average in the prior Year we're up an average of 22 percent so I I think we're set up for a 20 year even with the FED even with the FED speak you know if it's not Kashkari it's Esther George if it's not Esther George it's Bostic just to make you know sure Bostic got his message across he spoke late last week he spoke again before the show today I mean these guys are talking and and women are talking tough yes they're talking tough because they want Financial conditions to stay tight you know that's dollar stocks bonds everything's kind of easing so they're probably a little worried and and they want to be sure inflation is in fact dead but I think one of the changes especially since October is that inflation's been undershooting this Thursday will be very telling but if inflate if CPI comes in at 0.2 core but below consensus again that means the fed's original projection of 48 on the pce is 60 basis points too high you know Translating that over and that means inflation is undershooting by a huge margin the bond market is going to push the FED to say February might be the last hike and then after that is cuts I mean but the FED members themselves are not you know drinking what the bond Market's serving up right they keep talking as if they're as I use the word with with policeman a little while ago hell-bent on getting to that plus five percent however much over five percent you we can argue about but and then staying there for a while yeah I think that's uh because part of the FED model is uh they're using a Phillips curve and right at the moment they're focused on this Services number X housing which has been inflationary and their view is that it's driven by wages but what is sort of not being captured at the moment is the goods have dropped so much and and wage inflation slowing and housing especially this week looks like it's actually come off sharply that the the trajectory for court could be you know we could be surranializing close to one percent in the first half and that's far below what the FED I think at that point the FED would have to sort of think rethink its reaction so what happens if they I'll Grant you let's say they pause right but they don't cut how much do you need a cut to get your 20 I don't even think the FED uh would even have to cut because once they pause which is now the FED went from five ones the terminal rate to we're pausing at 475.
it raises the bar for them to start hiking again so I think that the bond market would interpret that as the start of a cutting cycle I think rates would come down of course this will worry the fed that's why we're hearing tough talk but if inflation data comes in soft I think everyone's gonna be on the same page so a pause alone is enough for a huge rally in stocks yes yeah in fact I know folks talk about earnings could be down this year which I think is a possibility but was it a probability or a possibility I think it's only a possibility because the dollar falling is a Tailwind for earnings and um but if the earnings are down since 1950 it has not been an important factor for what if stocks go up or down so it's what volatility the vix is a much more influential fact you think the Market's going to overlook the fact if you know if earnings come in even lower than where projections have re-rated them to already markets can overlooked that yeah I'm in fact I think that's uh you know we can look at it even just now Tesla missed on delivery numbers it's at 120 now I mean I think stocks are already showing you that you could have bad news but if it's priced in well I mean yeah we're going to use Tesla as the litmus test I mean that Stock's already gotten from a multiple of 80 something you know all the way down to 20.
that's kind of why it's interesting if you look at what's correlated to financial conditions using its Tech discretionary and Industrials these have been doing well they're kind of telling us Financial conditions will ease but also these stocks should go up if earnings are I mean these should be the ones getting hit by earnings and they're going up what about tech it Remains the biggest I don't even know if I should say biggest question mark because it seems like the questions have been answered the stocks were overvalued even the mega cap stocks that deserve to have a premium valuation don't necessarily deserve the premium that they even still have now which has been compressed as well that's right uh you know text minute darling it's been it was over owned they got expensive now people think that they're going to derate forever but we know that if the market is bottomed in October Tech has always let off a bottom Tech is also how you cure inflation because that's how you reduce wage pressures and if the multiples have come in and financial conditions these and rates fall then multiple should go up so Tech has Tailwinds this year that didn't exist last year do you think the worst is over for and I don't let's separate the baskets of tech massive multiple once two Banks the mega caps which you know most of them I think we would suggest their multiples weren't nearly as egregious as some some of the others do you think the mega caps the apples the microsofts ETC have they corrected enough yes I do because I think that their shareholder base includes a lot of people who have huge capital gains aren't going to sell because of a Miss but a lot of those who had to get out because of performance issues have sold so I think Tech can get new ownership um and that's what's going to help them on the mega cap I mean on the hyper growth stocks if rates fall it's going to help them so I think that they can bounce but they're not the ones that make this a good year for stocks I mean what's going to make this a good use for stocks is Industrials discretionary Tech and I think that it's going to feel better as we go through this year if inflation starts to continues to undershoot what's your most favorite sector right now well I I think Fang might be the easiest bike just because nobody really thinks it can do well and and of course if Bank rallies I mean that's going to almost Drive the 20 gains easier than say a financials or a health care or an energy where you know a lot of the smart money has been going uh you know energy uh you know we we've liked it since 2020 and alleged smart money yeah and you know I think it's going to re-rate but the the challenge is it's still got a geopolitical element to it uh Healthcare I think is a good garpy group but it's not something that can be up 50 you know fan could be up 50 this year so you're thinking that 50 possibly yeah five zero yeah so the nasdaq's going to have that great so if the s p is going to be up 20 percent what's the NASDAQ going to be up well over 20.
I mean Scott I just say that the first five days is a pretty indicative of how markets go for the year in fact of all the instances where you had a negative prior year and then you're up the first five days okay that's 85 percent of the outcomes had positive gains for the rest of your averaging 20 the only two exceptions was 1970 and O2 so maybe if you think this is O2 when we have a lot of trouble ahead but if it's not O2 then you have an 85 probability it's a 20 year well I mean it's you set the bar this high at the beginning of the year Tom there's little wiggle room now you gotta you gotta get there all right so then I'll just have to come back on December 31.
you'll be back many times between now and then I hope thank you for being here yeah thanks guys that's fun strats Tom Leewood
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