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엔비디아 주가는 실적 성장으로 뒷받침되며 멀티플이 오히려 하락했다고 주장. 블랙웰 출시 후에도 H100 수요가 강해 향후 2~3년 이상 성장이 예상되고, 데이터센터 시장 확대와 AI 칩 점유율(65%)이 근거로 제시됨. 캐시 우드의 엔비디아 매도는 실수로 평가하며 엔비디아가 시장을 떠받치고 있다고 봄. 금리 인하보다 기업 실적이 중요하다는 입장. 엔비디아 PER 41배 vs AMD 46배로 매수 의견 제시.
다듬은 글
joining us now with more on the tech rally and her top picks Joanne feni she's the portfolio manager at advisor Capital Management Joanne let's start off with Nvidia as it approaches a $2.8 trillion market value has it gotten ahead of itself yeah I don't think so David I mean it's always the case that you know a Stock's price will build in its future right and its future growth prospects are really quite impressive but to put it in perspective you notice that nvidia's earnings over the last year have gone up 4 50 4 60% it stock has gone up 250% but earnings you know are leading the way and and so actually the multiples come down in the last year nevertheless right the stock continues to rise on expectations that its growth will uh you know will be more long lasting than for many other companies in the in the market that investors can own so that's why the stock is where it is and and we do see awful lot of growth ahead of it competition is coming but it's going to take some years for that competition inroads Nvidia stock is up more than 130% since the beginning of the year leading many big names on Wall Street to place big bets on even more growth ahead but Arc invests CEO Kathy Wood is marching to the beat of her own drum during the recent ETF streams ETF ecosystem unwrapped 2024 event wood talked about the time when she ditched all her Nvidia shares back in January right before the stock surged Joy dropping 160% even though she sold at the worst possible time this year wood stands by her decision saying that Nvidia historically has been a very cycal stock and added that it would take a significant price correction for her to reinvest in Nvidia in today's video we're going to cover Wood's controversial comments on Nvidia stock and tell you why we completely disagree with her on this but before we do that if you want to keep up with nvidia's latest updates in I know we're in growth mode for all these companies in terms of adoption and demand but how how do you think about the sustainability of Revenue growth for some of these companies that are in early and how long that lasts you know Sarah it's so interesting to look at those Nvidia numbers as a as just an exclamation point on how the world has changed you know you look at their growth last quarter 40% earnings growth boy that's going to drop an awful lot this quarter it's only going to be 260% earnings Clow but this is just this big step up change in the in the opportunity ahead of them a year from now Nvidia earnings are likely to be growing at 25 to 30% and that's in expectations other companies that are just getting involved right will not see the same kind of Step Up this really was a unique opportunity for NVIDIA at the event Kathy Woods said that back in 2018 Nvidia benefited from the crypto movement but ended up with a huge inventory correction and crypto was about 3% of its business she expects the same thing to happen again but she doesn't think that it will be as serious if you're not familiar with what she's talking about you should know that during the crypto crash in 2018 Nvidia had four straight quarters of negative year over-year re Vue growth and its stock price dropped by about 53% during that period it didn't recover until the pandemic fueled boom and this happened because when crypto crashed miners flooded the market with used gpus giving bargain prices to Gamers and this decreased sales for NVIDIA leaving the company with excess inventory additionally chipmakers like bitmain started to produce specialized chips known as application specific integrated circuits or Asic to run the computations to produce the most valuable cryptocurrencies those asic's had only one job in life and were ultimately far better at producing those cryptocurrencies than gpus were so gpus were largely replaced by asic's for cryptocurrency mining adding to nvidia's wo Kathy then said that the shortage of GP use which are nvidia's second largest revenue generator has not been as acute recently with the likes of Tesla having no problem in acquiring the chips wood added that she used the capital she got from selling her Nvidia shares to invest into coinbase and other software companies across her range of ETFs including the flagship Arc Innovation ETF she said that maybe some of these software companies didn't do as well as Nvidia in this period but if Nvidia is to continue working we must see this pool through into the tech stack and the central part of organizations so there are going to be bumps in the road but is that really the case and will Nvidia really struggle in the long term let's or while wood has been right about Tesla before she can't be more wrong about Nvidia right now as it's very unlikely that Nvidia will see any issue with excess inventory right after the quarter 1 earnings call nvidia's CEO Jensen Hanan did an interview with yahood Finance in which he said that demand for the company's Flagship h100 chips is still so strong even as Nvidia prepares to launch the more powerful Blackwell gpus later this year he said that the company's customers want to put nvidia's gpus to work right away and start making money and start saving money he also said that h100 demand grew throughout the quarter right after the company announced Blackwell so this should tell you that Nvidia won't be seeing a demand problem anytime soon Jensen added that demand for both platforms will outstrip supply well into next year with the complexity of these ships also challenging the company's efforts to keep Pace if anything that means huge revenue streams for the next 2 to 3 years or even more also Nvidia now makes more money from segments like Enterprise cloud and data centers than personal gpus and the applications of their gpus now span Beyond gaming and crypto so what happened in 2018 probably won't ever happen again we can only see growth for nvidia's future as the global data center Market is expected to hit $622 billion by 2030 from $31 billion in 2023 and in March of this year it was reported that Invidia had 65% of the data center AI chip market so it could definitely capitalize on that explosive growth and if it managed to maintain the share the company could bring in $44 billion in Revenue by 2030 if wood is waiting for a big drop to buy back into Nvidia then I doubt she'd get that anytime soon but maybe she'll load up after the split to get shares at a lower price most recently AR invest bought 7,861 shares of AMD nvidia's main rival and this transaction was valued at $1.35 million andd claimed a 33% share in the server CPU Market as it radies its nextg process cess es and unveils a GPU road map with CFO jeang hu highlighting strong growth in servers CPUs and gpus citing Partnerships and transitions to a and dbased infrastructure many analysts anticipate semiconductor industry optimism despite challenges so the outlook for both Nvidia and AMD is positive and we might see wood buying Nvidia again soon enough though she probably won't admit to her Nvidia blunder if the markets continue to hear higher for longer from a range of fed speakers or from the lead actor as you mentioned then that can kind of sideline the effect to which the FED has on the market and the markets perhaps hang their hat on something else I mean for a while it's been Nvidia and the rer kind of thematic trade of AI how long can that still be the case well the Nvidia trade can be can last a long time I I wrote a piece you know that that Nvidia is the is the Atlas holding up the market to some extent and and and you know what I can't I can't get in the way of this stock it it you know I can't think of a stock that has been so remarkably consistent at beating estimates raising estimates beating them again raising them again you know rinse repeat and and this is you know if I shudder to think what the markets would would do if if Nvidia stumbled that that's why that's why I say it's sort of you know you know of Atlas Shrug so to speak um but you know that that can overweigh it the other thing to think about is we managed to go from pricing in seven rate six to seven rate cuts to now one to two for this year the reason we got away with this is It's because the economy is doing okay people you know ultimately the Market's not really about the FED it's about earnings it's about companies making money it's about them being able to grow return money to shareholders all those nice things and you know what a rate cut a rate cut is helpful but really what's the difference if the companies aren't making money so be careful what you wish for we don't want necessarily a weak economy that'll bring us rate Cuts i' I'm fine and I've been saying this all year I'm quite okay with having a strong economy that doesn't bring us rate Cuts if it brings us earnings and and cash flows Nvidia is truly holding the entire Market together and this is one of the reasons why Bulls love it so much but is also the fact that it will likely continue to dominate the AI Market with its gpus especially after the Blackwell gpus come out the global AI Market could still expand at a compound annual growth rate of 37% from 2023 to 2030 according to markets and markets and Nvidia could be the simplest way to profit from that secular boom additionally nvidia's first movers advantage in the AI space gives it tremendous pricing power its top tier h100 gpus cost more than $440,000 and it can keep raising those prices to boost its gross margin also nvidia's gaming business 10% of its first quarter revenue is gradually recovering as the PC market stabilizes lastly this still looks reasonably valued relative to its growth potential in fact from fiscal 20124 to fiscal 2027 analysts expect its Revenue to grow at a compound annual ual growth rate of 43% as its EPS increases at a compound annual growth rate of 49% based on those estimates Nvidia stock trades at just 41 times forward earnings on the other hand a andd stock which is growing at a much slower rate and has less exposure to the AI Market trades at 46 times forward earnings so investors who want to profit off the growing AI industry should buy Nvidia stock and hold it for the longterm you don't want to make the same mistake as Kathy would after all but what do you think about Nvidia stock is it a buy at the current price and don't forget to tell us what your valuation for NVIDIA is if you would like to know what companies like Nvidia
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