저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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Fed가 금리를 동결하고 연내 인하 가능성이 낮아졌지만 미국 경제는 대체로 양호하다고 봄. 수익 성장은 AI 중심으로 가고 있으며 AI 소프트웨어 시장은 2030년 13조 달러 규모로 성장할 것으로 전망. ARK는 팔란티어(최근 대량 매수)와 AMD를 매수하고 있고 엔비디아는 일부 매도. 전기차는 2030년 전체 시장의 약 70%까지 확대되며 BYD 매수는 Tesla 이탈이 아닌 중국 EV 시장 노출 확대 전략으로 해석. 기업 AI 생산성 향상 및 AI 훈련비용 하락으로 버블이 아니라고 주장.
다듬은 글
let's make this 3D you've got the underlying economy which as you say is motoring along okay there are signs at the periphery of problems for instance in the consumer confidence data yesterday but but by and large it's motoring along okay with employment remaining high so the FED is feels pretty relaxed about where they are at at the moment with a downward trajectory inflation but albeit stuttering at twoo high level what about the markets they're struggling to find a prop other than the prospect of lower money to keep themselves high or certainly were in the last month anyway yeah that's absolutely absolutely right but I'm not necessarily sure that that's going to persist you know when you look back at the '90s from sort of 1995 through to 2001 we saw rates only coming down from 6% to about 4 and a half percent through that period markets perform well they actually returned a compound annual growth rate of more than 133% through that six-year period so historically it's not been necessary to have aggressive rate cuts to support Equity markets as long as you have good growth and of course there was good economic growth in that particular era now when I look at the indicators at the moment I think the growth looks okay you know I appreciate we just had quite weak q1 uh GDP data out in the US but actually if you average over with Q4 as well it's running at about two and a half percent which is pretty much smack bang in the middle of the range of estimates that that we're looking at so I think you inventories played a huge part in that weak figure and I wouldn't necessarily uh take it at face value I think it's probably leing a little bit better than that was suggest the GDP now figure from uh the Atlanta fed as well backing that up suggesting that the economy is doing okay now in terms of what's going to drive the market though I think it's ultimately it comes back to earnings you know I'm a fundamental investor here that's what the stock market is going to really care about but it's not just earnings this year it's earnings over the next few years and so how sustainable is that level of earnings growth that we're seeing at the moment at the mo it's really driven Again by The Magnificent 7 in terms of that Prof profit share when we look at earning Seasons so far there's been a huge weight to those Mega caps once again uh and I think that's a little bit of a concern you know we want to see that broadening out a little bit in the US and if the economy is stuttering there's that question mark over whether that's feasible the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady despite initial expectations for a rate cut but that wasn't all as the FED also suggested that we may not get a cut until late in the year high interest rates are usually bad for the market because they mean higher borrowing costs for companies and discounted valuations for stocks but at a time when demand for AI exceeds everything else many analysts are saying the AI sector will continue to see strong growth no matter what the interest rates are this leads us to the topic of today's video which is Arc invests CEO Kathy Wood loading up on AI stocks like palena and AMD recently but these trades are nowhere near as interesting as her third trade where she acquired shares of a massive Tesla rival despite being one of Tesla's most prominent supporters so let's break down Kathy Wood's recent trades and try to make sense of them but before we do that if you want to keep up with the latest updates of companies like palena and Tesla and keep up with the stock market's latest news you can follow our Twitter account we post multiple times daily about the biggest changes in catalysts in the market so click the follow button if you don't want to miss the newest Market updates now back to today's video yeah at ARC we really focus on um identifying transformative Technologies and that requires us to understand how quickly they're declining in costs and then the unit economics of different in buyers at different price points and so the role of the cheap cheap futurist is really to um kind of manage the forecasting of those Technologies so how quickly is AI declining in costs year-over-year and then how big a market is it going to be as it turns out we think AI software is going to be a 13 trillion Doll Market by 2030 and there's a lot that goes into like coming up with that number and so the chief futurist role is really to kind of like guide those top- down forecasts and then control how they translate into our expectations for the individual companies a few days ago AR invests Chief futurist Brett Winton was a guest on the point forward podcast and he said that his firm thinks that the AI software Market will be worth $13 trillion by 2030 this forecast might be considered too ambitious by some but it doesn't take away from the fact that demand for for AI software is very strong and explains why Cathy wood is currently betting on palenta for the past few weeks Kathy Wood went on a palente teer buying spree spending more than $2.2 billion on shares in just one day most recently she bought 45,000 453 shares in a trade that was valued at approximately $1 million wood has been a paler investor for a long time now and she even said that she sees the data analytics company becoming a trillion doll company in the future and disrupting Tech Titan Microsoft when it comes to AI wood is bullish on palente continuously expanding list of government contracts as well as its growing Commercial Business in fact Revenue acceleration stemming from the commercial business is the major story for palena through 2024 and into 2025 with Revenue growth poised to accelerate from 177% last year to 20% this year and nearly 21% in 2025 the timing of woods palena purchases makes me think that she's really optimistic about the company's upcoming earnings on May 6th and she's right to be optimistic as analysts expect palena to report a revenue of $ 625.383500 andd and does that have anything to do with her Nvidia sell-offs let's find out hello everyone and welcome back to invest Ury all right that's the macro let's talk the earnings Jenny horn here with us as well look super micro has been the really fun one but I think we start with AMD on a morning like this because that's the one that's in the broad indexes that people are trading it's rolling the S&P 500 and it's down and it doesn't look like it's anywhere even close to Nvidia despite everybody saying they're number two you know I always have said said that it's going to be a really difficult thing for them to like regain this Competitive Edge that they've lost I feel like for the better part of the last two years now I mean I know that they've been more of a growth story over the long term but yeah it doesn't seem like they're in much better shape than what we were seeing based on a year ago I mean that's a little concerning their PC and data center revenues though did help rise more than 80% on a year-over-year basis the growth was led by these M of course 300 AI chips which their CEO did call the the fastest ramping product in their history however I would say that what seems to be the focus of a lot of the selling today is guidance I mean that was something that that was hugely disappointing and that's due to a lot of the weakness they saw actually in their video game segment which they said was considerably weaker than had been expect they' been expecting so they do anticipate now second quarter or Revenue to reach around 7 5.7 billion plus or minus around 300 million at the midpoint that would amount to approximately around 3 and 1 half% higher than on a sequential basis and about 5 and half% higher than last year but overall Revenue we well did see a nice sequential rise it was down on a year-over-year basis so where's the growth there if we're we're basically trading or we were trading on the expectation that this name is going to be a a second player to Nvidia you have to be able to post growth you're still waiting uh a quarter to get it I mean squeezing by with single digit growth and then telling us that the next two quarters you know we're going to eventually get to digits by next year it's like it's pretty crazy that this is even in the same category of Nvidia which is posting hundreds of% already in the last couple quarters Arin vest bought 1,658 shares of AMD on the same day the chipmaker reported its first quarter earnings this trade was valued at around $262,000 and while that's not much when you compare it to some of wood's other trades it's still a vote of confidence in AMD amd's earning came slightly above the expectations of analysts but the stock still dropped because investors didn't like the company's key2 guidance as its numbers were very close to q1's numbers AR invest holds around 190,000 A&D shares and maybe would saw a buying opportunity in A&D stock after it dipped especially because a and's guidance for the full year is actually good for instance the company raised its forecast for the sales of its Mi 300X AI chips saying that it expects $4 billion in 2024 sales up from a $3.5 billion forecast it had made in January amd's chips had used extensively in data centers gaming systems and other Tech products and the company has massive customers like Microsoft so it wouldn't surprise me if wood is seeing some potential upside here especially with how bullish she is on AI notably AR invest sold some of its Nvidia shares last month so maybe it's all about valuations and wood probably thinks that Nvidia is overvalued now while AMD isn't the post earning share purchase aligns with arc's strategy of capitalizing on dips to build stakes in quality names with strong growth runways next up Wood's last trade for this video recently AR invest snapped up over 1,748 shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker byd and the estimated value of this trade was approximately $1.02 million many thought this was a strange move from wood as she always made it clear that she preferred Tesla to the Chinese automakers so why did wood actually buy BYT shares let's try to work it out but first if you made it this far into the video thank you these videos take a lot of effort and time to make so if you enjoyed them please hit the like button and subscribe to the channel this goes a long way in helping us grow that said back to the video your latest research paper uh big ideas for 2024 you listed your strong at convictions um among them you mentioned robotics AI Bitcoin and also electric vehicles you anticipate that EV sales will grow from roughly 10 million units in 2023 globally to 74 million in 2030 uh which is a lot frankly and which today I think is a very contrarian view given the increasingly unpopularity of electric vehicles worldwi why are you so positive about that uh well we believe that one of the issues range and range anxiety is is going to change as range increases uh but more important uh we see electric vehicle prices dropping into the 20 to $25,000 range within the the next five to 10 years and if you look at uh price points historically you adjust for inflation and you look at price points at which uh Auto Sales really take off model by model uh it is uh around that 25 to $30,000 range uh and so we believe that electric vehicles will scale to roughly 70 70% of the market by that uh by that time and and price will be the biggest reason as the current top EV seller in China China byd provides exposure to the rapidly growing Chinese auto market which is the biggest EV Market in the world this adds to arcs existing investments in EV players like Tesla GM and rivan Kathy Wood is a firm believer in Tesla's long-term story having previously said that Tesla is the biggest AI project on Earth and that the company could grab 85% margins in robot taxes and AI additionally she has a $2,000 price Target on Tesla stock so buying byd now doesn't mean that she's turning against Tesla instead this move likely reflects a broader strategy by Arc to capitalize on the surging electric vehicle Market even as Tesla faces some mtown headwinds wood believes that increased EV adoption will depend solely on EV prices going down and while Tesla's CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla plans to release affordable models that still needs another year or two therefore wood might be buying byd because of the Chinese company's expansion plan and affordable models diversifying into other promising EV players like byd also allows Arc to hedge against Tesla's headwinds and this byd trade indicates that Arc recognizes the shifting Dynamics in the EV space while remaining confident in Tesla's technological leadership overall one area there's a real question out on the market right now is whether it's being judicious when it comes to the promise of AI where where do you think we are right now in the valuation cycle for companies that touch either right now or are promising to in the future what AI is able to deliver uh it's interesting we think every company has the opportunity to capitalize on artificial intelligence it is probably going to produce the most dramatic productivity gains in history and anyone who's used chat GPT to help write emails or papers or so forth has a a of what we mean now we've been talking about AI for the last 10 years we invest invested in Nidia uh when it was $5 uh so we've been expecting uh this that this promise to be realized now that we have something like chat GPT more and more people understand it which is fantastic because companies know that if they do not harness AI they're going to lose out competitively so we're seeing you might say an arms race with Nvidia that's the hardware side of it there will be a software side of it paler is a good example on the software side so is uip path but if you think about it any company with proprietary data that takes AI seriously and has um deep domain expertise on whatever the business is should be able to use uh Ai and drive productivity gains up dramatically and what's interesting about that is with productivity comes wealth creation uh and so we think productivity will increase uh for knowledge workers by fourfold maybe more than four-fold by the end of this decade can you imagine doing four times more than you are doing right now by the end of the decade in a day's work or may maybe even you saving time doing doing it uh so the changes are going to be pretty profound many people say oh are we in a bubble like in the late 90s I was there and we are not we are not why because the Technologies are ready and the costs are low enough AI training costs are dropping um 75% per year and so uh the the the AI opportunity is going to be delivered across sectors across Industries across sub Industries as costs come down rather than taking a defensive stance Arc remains convicted in its disruptive innovation thesis during periods of turbulence The Firm maintains its focus on finding companies poised to benefit from technology Transformations over a five plus yeartime Horizon and these recent purchases from Cathy wood proves that Arc shows discipline in sticking to its strategy rather than reac acting to shifts in sentiment and all the stocks that were recently picked by The Firm also including Tesla have Bright Futures ahead and that's according to many analysts and experts however it remains to be seen whether arc's faith in Ai and disruptive technologies will be rewarded as markets continue to experience turbulence thanks to the fed's decision and only time will tell if doubling down on these stocks will eventually pay off as always these Investments carry substantial risk for instance being a Chinese company be yd is considered a risky bet by some because of the tense us China relations and on the other hand many think a andd will struggle to gain market share against Nvidia as for palena many analysts think its valuation is still too rich therefore investors should weigh risks and do their own due diligence before deciding to invest in any of these stocks but what do you think of Cathy Wood's recent trades will you follow her lead and buy any of these stocks let us know your thoughts in the comment section if you would like to know what companies like Tesla and palena have been up to these past few days go ahead and click on the next video on your screen see you there
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