저자: TomLee · 외국인
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트럼프 당선 이후 주식시장 강세 전망. Tom Lee은 소형주가 향후 수년간 S&P500 대비 100% 이상 상회할 수 있으며 S&P500은 연말까지 5~10% 상승, 2025년 중 6700 가능하다고 봄. 비트코인은 연말 전 6자리(10만 달러 이상) 가능성 언급. 금리 인하 기조와 실적 호조, 재정 정책이 상승 요인. 채화 채권시장 우려는 있으나 성장 기대 변화에 따른 금리 상승으로 해석. 밸류에이션보다 단기 모멘텀 중심 투자 행태가 시장을 더 끌어올릴 수 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
is back on CNBC today and dropped another massive bombshell he says small caps could outperform by more than 100% in the next few years now on the markets Tom Lee head of research at fun Strat Global advisors Chief investment officer at fund Strat Capital the list goes on and on an he's a a CNBC contributor first post elction uh appearance that we've had um you knew Trump was going to win well the not many people did yes that's uh I'll give you credit are you saying you didn't maybe you didn't say it in so many words but you said it yes I'd say that I we were placing a lot more weight on what the betting markets were pointing to and so uh and we you know when we look at all the Deltas that's and you saw it in the Trump trade and you saw it in Bitcoin correct and you saw it in sectors of the market that would benefit from that's right presumably who but who knows uh from a from a Trump presidency so, 1500 points a me out of the gate more to come or are we already we're already there uh I think we need to respect this move I mean it was a tremendous Rally post election and it continued yesterday I think it really does reflect a lot of money was taken out of the market because of the uncertainty around the election and now we know that because of policy changes and animal spirits that this is really going to benefit things like Bitcoin and small caps and and Regional Banks and financial so I do think there's still a lot of upside I mean small caps trade at 10 times median forward earnings I mean that's a so you what do you think that should be 12 times what kind what's the what's the opportunity set in your mind well since 1987 small caps traded on a median PE basis at a premium to the S&P the S&P is at 17 times so I think small caps could in the next couple years outperform by you know more than 100% And what do you think about some of the macro issues that I think create a different level of uncertainty we keep talking about the bond market and what that might be saying what you think is happening with gold you know are the Bond vigilantes going to be this governor on whatever you think is going to happen in Washington uh as James Carville famously said you know uh the bond market is everyone's scared of the bond market so that is something we need to watch but we've had plenty of periods where stocks have risen with bonds rising and I and I kind of agree with Powell's assessment that it's not be yields have gone up not because of inflation but because there's sort of a change in growth expectations I thought that a sweep was for either party was the death nail for the markets and frightening to all involved and now we're getting a sweep why isn't it more frightening maybe a sweep the other way would have been a little more frightening to some yeah uh I mean I think part of the reason investors are getting somewhat optimistic is that presid Trump is entering office again but this time with a lot more knowledge of how to build a you know a cabinet and a team and um so in some ways this would end up being more Market friendly and and I think that's why investors are becoming optimistic I mean I kind of agree with the idea that there are animal spirits growing he'll never be deficit friendly will he I mean he will be deficit friendly he won't be you know if we cut taxes on tips Social Security overtime um remove the salt cap extend the tax cuts if you do all those things that that seems like it it's going to be very difficult to fix the deficit with just changes in taxes and spending but it's probably why Bitcoin is kind of interesting here because uh it's potentially a treasury Reserve asset and you know as if Bitcoin rises in price it actually helps offset the liabilities which is the deficit so you were at 150 I think on bitcoin weren't you but not necessarily by by the end of this year or I I think six figures is still possible for before the end of the year yeah but and then more next year and the year after yeah I I think because now you know post having and uh now bitcoin's becoming a lot more relevant and I think maybe the regulatory overhang is is diminishing that there's a lot of upside from here yes okay S&P um end the next year Well I uh between now and year end 5 to 10% is probably the base case just because that's the type of Rally post elction and we have a doish fed and you know the normal seasonals is that the right move right now for the FED I think inflation fighting uh war is largely over and you know the real rate is still too high so I agree with fed's view that we need to move towards neutral which you know which is towards 3% so I think it is supportive of markets and uh you know business investment has been constrainted so so I think these things are positive so what about uh 200 what's next year is that 25 they move so fast they're like months now the years so what about 2025 so uh 5 to 10% more would give would put us well above yeah more than 6,000 before year end uh I I think it at least for the foreseeable future no recession no recession and and people want you to answer when I ask you question so what are you saying 60 what 00 on on the S&P I think well past like 6700 possible sometime next year 6700 yeah sometime next year because that's another 20% isn't it yeah it's well maybe 10 15 yeah because you know margin debt hasn't really risen in the last four months and the stock market's up so we know investors haven't been adding risk and now we have earnings visibility and we have a continued doish fed and then the selections behind us so multiple Tailwinds exist W you're you're pretty bullish I I think I'm pretty positive on on the US and fundamentals yes so yeah I think the commentator there covered it very well Tom Lee just to summarize it is very bullish expecting 5 to 10% higher from here into year end and then the S&P could go much higher into 2025 in fact I would throw something else on there if we do have a soft Landing if earnings do come in better than expected let's say 13 to 15% earnings growth next year by the end of next year you could see the spy at 700 that is possible now in the book that I'm reading currently or rereading I should say called the psychology of money there's something interesting that that that really stands out to me within that book the book talks about how everyone has different views of things okay some people are day trading so in the book it referenced Cisco in 2000 at Cisco's market cap that was like $600 billion Cisco over 20 years so today at the implied rate of growth Cisco had then would be worth more than the entire US economy like everyone knew that Cisco was a trade it was not a long-term investment at a 600 plus billion dollar you know you know company then and think about $600 billion company then was like you know 3510 trillion in today's you know nominal values right it was it was egregious but everyone loved the stock because they were trading the stock okay when you start to get expectations of investors that switch more to Traders from that perspective markets can go dramatically higher and valuation does not matter so I talked about this on the channel before where I said valuations do not matter yes valuations matter to a certain extent but the psychology of investors changes from a market where let's say in the 1960s 7s 80s where investors invested for the longterm they looked at Price to Book they looked at you know all these other metrics that let's say uh Warren Buffett has written about before or or a a Graham right has written about before and those those ways of evaluating stocks just don't work because now there's yes there's long-term investing perspectives like hey I don't want to pay more than 20 times earnings for this company right there there's still that that goes on but more people have switched to near-term momentum and and riding trends when you get that kind of Behavior nobody rides a trend let's say in Tesla that's up 10% today based on multiples that's not the deciding factor whether or not you make a trade on Tesla is what the multiple is because if that's your you know metric of evaluating a company Tesla's multiple does not fall in your in your you know perference I I perals right uh you guys get the word I'm trying to say it doesn't fall in your area of you know the markets right so you're getting a lot more people that are starting to say hey maybe there's a trend here maybe there's a trade here and then over time that can evolve into wow you know this company actually did well that company actually did well that was a good trade turn to a longer term you know investment or or longer term trade and that's what you could start to see happen investors flipping from and and they don't even realize they do this right they don't even realize that they go from long-term investors that care about valuations to more short-term Trend you know followers that don't necessarily care about valuations right a day trader doesn't care about a valuation they're trying to get in they're trying to get out investors switching from investors to you know momentum traders that buy a stock and hold it for a couple of months it it almost happens without you even realizing it right and you might fall in that category 10 years ago you may have been someone that bought a stock and held it today you could be someone that buys a stock until the trend changes until the company gets worse and then you sell the the stock right that's more of what you're seeing for those reasons I don't think you can solely rely on valuations and say that's the the the ultimate kind of uh stopping point for markets hopefully that makes some sense let me know what you think Down Below in the comment section that's what's great about investing we all have our own opinions now here today at 10:00 in the morning we did get Michigan consumer sentiment that came in at 73.0 the expectation was 71 so that was good on the headline number fiveyear inflation expectations crept up to 3.1% they were at 3% they' they've been going back and forth from from 3% to 3.1% so really not a big deal consumer expectations jumped dramatically following Trump's win of the 47th spot of the president of the United States jumping from 74.1 to 78.5 current conditions fell marginally from 64.9 to 64.4 and inflation expectations over the one year ahead period actually fell as well from 2.7% down to 2.6% and I do think as as kind of a broad brush brush statement here as people start to see the change in gas prices at the pump over the last you know couple of days oil prices have have fallen presumably gas prices will also fall they may get even more optimistic and that could be great news as you can see today oil is down about 2.71% with that said option activity today in the Spy which is the ETF for the S&P 500 is pretty neutral today which is actually good relative to what we've seen over the past couple of days you have 254 different hedge fund institutional option orders on the Spy specifically totaling $187 million with a positive order value of 51% so again that's actually a pretty good ratio we've seen numbers in the 20s and in the 30s over the past couple of days now if you look at these shorts they's still 10.2% short interest uper flow on the spy and it does look like in the days ahead if the markets do break above 6,000 on the Spy you're probably going to see a lot of pressure on those shorts to start covering some of those short positions now personally I think we have a pretty good setup between now and the end of this year from a perspective of the FED is cutting rates economy is okay earnings just got out the way over the past week and a half we've gotten a jobs report we've gotten inflation ratings we've gotten all of this data again we just had the fed's commentary that that was really bullish for treasuries you have Trump now going to take over in 202 you could definitely make a strong case here for an upside continuation it's actually pretty hard to make a bearish case right now excluding valuations right exclude valuations because they don't matter in the short term um like people don't again people don't wake up one day and say I'm going to sell this stock because it's above a certain valuation generally speaking that induces more buying when a stock is doing well and the valuation is going higher nonetheless I mean besides any kind of fluke um you know headline that Trump's going to do this or Trump's going to do that or uh you know a bad set of economic data it's really hard to make a bearish case right now now our Market's going to go straight up in a line forever obviously not you've seen markets pretty much go straight up over the past three days now great news for your brokerage account and your 401ks largely speaking it's it's actually four green days in a row where you have collectively went up on the Spy about 5 and a half% or so uh that's some pretty strong momentum and I'm not going to be surprised if it continues but at some point you will level out a bit you will see volume on the Spy fall which you you kind of are seeing today and you will see things go back to a little bit more of a normal market and then we'll get hit hit by headlines you know positive or negative you know from Trump I think is going to be a big source of Market moving headlines um so we'll see from that perspective but as you head into a seasonally bullish period in time of the year there's just not a big bare thesis so if you are short right now in markets please I don't I don't often tell you please on anything but please be very careful it's hard to make a bearish argument and I'm a bear by Nature like like like most people are optimistic by Nature I'm like always looking for what's going to go wrong at least in the short term I'm I'm bullish long term but I tend to be a bear in the near term I I've just learned that about myself it's it's helped me you know prepare for times in the markets in which it it helps to be a little bit more bearish like the end of 2021 like Co in 2020 right like the trade War situation had going on in December of 2018 like these these these times my short-term bearish subconscious has has or conscious I should say has helped has helped a lot and and and that's you know why I hope you guys watch this video to get some warning some some heads up of of Rocky times ahead but I just don't see that right now of course are you going to have down days yes but a correction here any kind of material downside does not seem likely to me but a good leveling out some sideways trading is to be expected at some point over the next couple of weeks and then probably you will see a yearend uh Rally from there although you have a lot of funds underperforming the S&P with all of the good going for markets right now you could start to see a Chase and you could start to see a bit of a short squeeze so be on the lookout for that as well that is going to do it ladies and gentlemen let me know what you think about this information Down Below in the comment section you guys have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next one
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