저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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인도 증시 조정은 2024년 9월 고점 이후 약 6개월간 진행된 건강한 조정으로, 밸류에이션(P/E 20배 이하, 10년 평균 하회)이 이미 낮아졌고 지수 바닥 근처라고 주장. 2025년 기업이익은 5~6%, 내년 개선 전망. 중소형주 괴리가 커서 추가 조정 또는 대형주 상승 후 따라잡기 가능성 언급. 퀵커머스(Zomato, Swiggy)는 가치 증가 중이라 긍정적. 자본시장 거래량 감소는 규제 영향의 일시적 현상으로 보고 IPO 시장 회복 예상. 구조적 둔화가 아닌 경기순환적 둔화라는 입장.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to the CNBC tv18 special from the CNBC tv18 Mo Rosal Studios as markets continue to remain Under Pressure the question most asked nowadays is are are we there yet are we at the bottom or close to this selloff ending and the selloff has been quite painful while the Nifty is lost about 16% in value from all-time highs the small cap and the midcap indices have lost 25% and 21% respectively while the market peaked in late September last year the real wishes turn in sentiment firmly to the downside is only about 45 to 60 days old is it just a plain vanilla correction after a few years of absolutely go- go fantastic markets or is there some deeper underlying malays at play here and to help us with answers we have with us in the studio ramdev agraval Who Will Be Our Guest editor for the r while we will ask him for his own thoughts on the markets from here on we will also bring in some other topnotch voices on the show the big fancy sector of the past few years has been the capital Marketplace it's been one of ramdev agarwal's favorite sectors as well so how will Capital Market businesses fair in this downturn n m b at HDFC mutual fund will join in to answer those questions uh the other area that we will touch upon in the next 1 hour is pharmaceutical with Trump hint hinting at tariffs on Pharma how is the sector placed uh we will be joined by Lupin Ramesh Swami Nathan to discuss all this well let's uh get the ball rolling then ramu G welcome to the show thank you very much uh and always good to see you reassuring and I you are viewers as well right who always see you as someone who has seen lots of markets lots of cycles and I me they learn from you yeah uh then it is to restart it it becomes very difficult you know unusual time every time it is a new new story you that the beauty of the market like 92 was the first shocker we had first there was a upward move of 7x in 19 months and then collapse vertical collapse from 4200 to 24 2500 and the start Market started moving from 700 to 4200 unprecedented 19 months so stories are always uh different it was not backed up by earnings it was just some kind liquidity flow 2000 y Tok boom it's a sectoral move big time you know uh uh again it crashed uh by 50 60% 2008 was again GFC uh crisis uh the same 2003 2008 build up and then crash and every time the earnings are broken you know this time the market has moved from 500 rupees EPS 2,000 rupes EPS for Nifty and Market extended from say 8,000 at the bottom to 24 25,000 so it went 3x earnings went double so obviously Market got related big time now uh now we are correcting that uh reting because uh earnings profile is slowed down but it is not broken I mean last year the current year the earnings are going to grow at about 5 6% and there's obvious reason for credit slowdown economic slowdown uh every aspect of tightening by The Regulators have happened and now and there was the election so there's a delay in the government expenditure and all so all of this have passed I this is the year of actually uh all kinds of uh uh difficulties I would say in economy and despite that we doing 6 and half% don't forget that you know and now we are exiting probably March uh quarter with closer to maybe 7 half% 8% let's see what comes so I think we have set the mood uh one correction is done the P multiple which was at 23 24 that has come down to less than 20 uh and it is a below 10 years average so nothing stops at the average it it overshoots a little bit so that is what is on now if Market corrects further from here uh it is overshooting downside okay so uh that's what we are in right now how long it is it see as you said the alltime high was in September it is not even 6 months that market is correcting so after four years of Relentless rally if we are there for 6 months out here last year we met 50% in the market uh broad Market I'm saying and we have lost say 20 25% so I think uh it was it is painful I understand it is painful to me also but uh it is very very logical I mean it's a proper healthy correction you know if indices in small and mid had gone up by say 70 80% it they have fallen by 25 30% and whose portfolio has done 70 80% theyve also Fallen by 35 40% so accesses in the market was very clearly visible and uh regulator government worldwide invest everybody was uncomfortable so this is a very healthy correction and now next year earnings will pick up from 1,50 to maybe 1150 or 1200 whatever and uh your IPO markets are now shut almost like Frozen uh so one by one right things are happening credit flow is improving you know government expenditure is picking up so I think all the things are falling in place and correction has also happened so so just to complete that point Nifty anything more now is overshooting on the Downs side valuation wise I mean I'm just looking at the averages I don't look at the far farward nobody knows we look at the last 10 years last 10 years last 10 years average about 20 20 21 20 half P multiple now is sub 20 so yes can it go another person another one it can overshooting can happen yeah what about mid and small caps uh because there Gotham dugar from your team was with us I think last the previous Monday and he was telling us midcaps trade at a certain discount to Nifty small cap index discount to Nifty and I mean there are the gaps this is these are numbers as of last Friday last Monday yes yeah so you know if you see today uh in your money control you can go and see 5e uh you know earning uh sorry index performance so index performance for Nifty is about 95 96% up on a fiveyear basis on same five year basis midcap is up 177 180% so the Gap is too much if it was at about 100 110 that I understand so that excess gain either large cap has to uh catch up to match midcap or midcap has to keep correcting time wise or actual uh downfall so I think the Divergence between mid and small is too high let's see how the market does maybe mid will keep correcting and large will make a move or large will make a move but mid will stay there and then it will catch up so Market does its own uh stuff I think most important thing is now don't wait for the because we are closer to the Bottom now whether it is th000 points of I have no idea and let me tell you nobody has any idea okay I've seen best of the chartist and all telling me they're all eating their own stuff so what I'm saying is now this is the time stocks are making bottoms m all the stocks will not make bottoms on the same day okay so if you like certain stock and that stock isable at your dreamy price and it has gone below that don't hesitate start moving into the market that would be my suggestion so tell us if um you know all stocks do not make a bottom at the same time but some stocks today are perhaps at their bottom tell us where is it that you see value right now that uh I mean I'm not at Liberty to talk about the stocks I mean I do have some stocks in mind but better we don't talk about it because I have an AMC and people are buying selling and things like that so uh but it is very interesting I mean you see uh what the AMC managers are doing and uh what stocks they are picking you can see Del uh in your screen so yes there are stocks which are making bottom they're holding Rock Solid at the bottom you know and what about quick Commerce companies you've spoken about it in the past about the structural opportunities the hype cycle in our companies so zato at uh you know 120 or a swiggy at about 300 rupees how do you feel about them yeah so that's that is one sector which is holding out very well if you see because see what is happening is while price is where it is I mean it might have fallen 20 30% from the top the they are increasing value at very rapid Pace price is here okay it has come down from here but value is increasing very rapidly so it is quite possible if it stays here for 3 4 months see if you talking investing it's not about picking the absolute bottom prices it's about buying at Fair prices okay are you buying are you buying a company which is growing at 50 60% uh at a fair valuation my sense is that is one sector where there is momentum and momentum will pick up further and uh it will become very interesting uh there are not some 10 20 players there are only two three players and others will find it difficult to enter of course others will try as the P becomes big fair value for quick Commerce compan I would think it's uh fair value it is stabilized in the sense that see nothing nobody can say that 5% can move down from here it can but we are closer to the bottom I'm saying nobody rings a bell at the top or the bottom so completely for FRS I'm tell you uh and by the way you own all three uh in that space so so you got full exposure in that sense and uh you believe in that space other areas where you think I mean your own business Capital Marketplace will join us a bit from now yes he he will talk about you've been a big champion of the space you think I still see my my is the story has changed for India and for the Indian businesses Indian stock market it's different we talking about 190 million Dem accounts still in this down Market also we're getting 2 three 2 and half 3 million you imagine if if in the down we getting 2 and a half million customers what will happen when the market actually picks up again again it will go to four four and a half so what I'm saying is this is relent expansion of the market you saw the one of the hottest IPO markets right now it is shut like it's slight bit of a slowdown is there it will again come back so Market you know there was a see what happened was when this money started flowing almost a lak per per month maybe 80,000 there was no supply of paper IPO there were no Bankers IPO Market was shut FIS were also they were not selling initially so the only fi Supply was there everywhere else there was a demand you know and then Supply started and one one and half years back one year back IPO Market the qip the promoters everybody started selling and now everything is stopping there's no qip there's no IPO there's no promoter selling that much okay you will see a situation in 2 three months time when promoters will actually come to buy because they are the guys who who are the smartest they know their value of the company corre so when the promoter starts buying so actually got seeing that selectively in the companies promoters will start buying and those are companies to track next two to three months that you your senses that will start to happen even from today it will start happening uh you know so just to so you're saying the Baseline for the market has shifted I mean b basically it's a different Market with it is a much bigger game now yeah 200 million Dem accounts going to 300 million in next one or two years it's a much bigger game so you know the irrationality which was there where because of lack of Supply the irrationality in terms of pushing the stock price of multiples to 70 800 irrespective that was wrong so that will correct even that is behind I'm telling you it will correct what has to be corrected will get corrected I mean whether it is called midcap or large cap or small doesn't matter what has to be corrected will get corrected and what has to move up will also move up so there will be Divergence of Performing stocks and non-performing stocks but just give us your own perspective on what's happening because ntin kamut of zeroa tweeted sometime back that volumes are down nearly 30% and it's the first time in the last 15 years that their business has degr so from your perspective tell us what's happening just right now yeah so see Capital Market is as you know as the sentiments gets hurt in last 5 6 months there is a decline there's a there a restrictive say like from da fno now you come to weekly expiry so obviously there's a almost 30 40% decline in the overall uh e volume so we got expanded too much between uh 21 and 24 we got expanded too much and then regulator got scared and they said we want to contain it and that's what they did and effect of that is visible I mean I mean n of course know the books you know so that's what is happening in uh broking that's what is happening in slowdown in now AMC flow was very good till last month this month I think there is somewhat it is slower it is somewhat slower but uh uh are we done with that I mean that just 2 months is not the history not the future so uh I think uh IPO Market will come back your private Equity will come back your public markets will come back everything once the once your correction is over see it is it has fallen very smoothly so far it will recover very smoothly so IPO markets will open up in IPO also all Tom Dick Harry they were thinking of going public all that will get that will also stop yeah you know so a lot of irrationality which was there prevailing just before this correction that will be uh the correction is the biggest biggest what you call medicine for all the excesses but nobody likes it absolutely uh just to uh end this segment and then we'll bring in N here you're not seeing any s of deeper sort of slowdown structural slowdown or anything of that sort right I mean it was just a cyclical kind of a Slowdown which should get fixed with government and RBI both kind of loening a little bit that's the view government were Fixit bat by 2047 so they want to grow at 8% real and we are still at 6 and half s so uh I mean left left right right you know we went a little slower you know they thought that we are going too fast so they slowed it down now again they'll get back to the track so if we keep growing about 7% I reasonably sure that corporate earnings will grow at about 11 12 13% and my multiple is already reduced so for me at a market level anywhere between 12 to 15% growth at index level that looks to be possible in next four 5 Years From Here all right got it absolutely you know what we'll do R is stay with us you are our Market editor guest editor for the hour so we're going to take a quick commercial break here n monot MD and CEO htfc AMC has been listening in uh now we'll go straight to him after this quick break uh and uh it's going to be one-on-one ramj and NAIT on the other side stay tuned
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