저자: EdDowd/PaulStone · 외국인
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Ray Dalio의 '재정 심장마비' 경고를 인용하며 미국 재정적자(GDP 6%대)가 국채 수요 부족과 금리 급등을 유발해 국채시장 붕괴로 이어질 수 있다고 주장. 관세는 무역적자 축소 효과가 경기침체 시에만 나타나 실효성이 낮다고 평가. 트럼프 행정부의 긴축과 재정 구조조정 성공 여부가 향후 2년 내 결정적이라고 봄. 장기 금리는 현재 하락 중으로 경기침체 대비 신호로 해석.
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come see us on tour we're going to be in Baltimore Hartford Connecticut Syracuse Atlantic City levitown New York Coos New York and Providence Rhode Island go to Jimmy door.com for a link for tickets Ray doia was talking about this very thing that we're talking about he had an interview with Tucker Carlson and the headline from Business Insider is Elite investor Ray Doo warns the US may suffer a financial heart attack if the debt problem isn't tackled Doo compared himself to a doctor telling a patient about a plaque buildup you're in high risk of this heart attack essentially and now what you are going now what are you going to do about it the mentor at Bridgewater three co-chief investors said it was vital to take action such as exercising more while the patient was still in good health don't wait for this to happen and then try to make it better Dalo said the federal government spent about 6.75 trillion last fiscal year but only collected 4.92 trillion in Revenue meaning it ran a 1 .8 trillion deficit according to the treasury's website the national debt has more than tripled since 2000 to an estimated 36.2 trillion the website showed Doo said that if the US doesn't cut its fiscal deficit from north of 6% of GDP to 3% in the next four years or so the supply of government bonds will outstrip demand and push up interest rates causing treasury markets to spiral the author of several books about financial and economic history said that kind of trauma in the backbone of the financial system affects all markets and money as a stor hold of wealth as we know it despite Elon musk's efforts at the department of government efficiency Dalo said not enough was being done to address the debt crisis during a separate conversation at the Dubai event recorded for Tucker Carlson there needs to be a game plan Doo said agre with Carlson that the lack of one seems crazy Ed what would be your game plan my game plan would be we need pain we need austerity we need to do what the Trump Administration says they're going to do if they don't do it and they continue to spend like drunken Sailors we're just we're kicking the can down the road but there is when you rip off the game in town has been deficit growth that's been what stimulated the economy long term that's unsustainable so you when you remove that juice you will have pain and if they and if they can restructure the economy uh successfully with you know deregulation downsizing government and maybe tax cuts then on the and then bringing and then using the Tariff CLE to bring more jobs to the us we could come out of this but to to to ignore it now only delays the inevitable which is what what Doo said which is long bond yields Spike up into you know into a death spiral right now the long Bond yields are going down which tell is telling you people are preparing for a recession right now that could change if Trump policy shift in the next two months and uh Paul do you have anything to add to that yeah absolutely of course so it was said earlier that uh the printed money doesn't get to us Ed said it and the numbers say it corporate profits just say look at 2010 as we kind of recovered from the' 08 correction in my opinion we never have because without the printed money you'd be calling the last whatever 17 years a depression but we'll just forgo that for the moment corporate profits since 2010 are up 350% commodity prices are up an average of 400% wages are up 80% so all Harry homeowner and Susan homeowner need to understand is that for our part of the economy as they do all these fiscal gymnastics and theories I've said said it before there's not one person at at there's not a hundred people at the Federal Reserve pouring over the most magnificent boardroom table you've ever seen reviewing some documents left by a supreme alien race that they just found in the pyramids in Egypt on how to turn your woefully bankrupt financially broke Nation around no one is pouring over a blueprint with 36 trillion in debt and a three Penny dollar no one is pouring over that scenario because England went through it before or the French did or the Romans did and then they turned it around and maintained Reserve currency status forever because we have it the British couldn't turn it around lost 26 countries in the process the French couldn't turn it around the Dutch couldn't the Spanish couldn't the Portuguese couldn't and the Romans couldn't and they invented it and I don't even know who the hell really was a competitor to Rome back then one out of five people lived there under their Rule and they in everyone who was an inventor or or the a theorist or a thinker a philosopher came to Rome they literally had the Brain Trust of the planet yeah there were some Waring tribes outside of Rome but as far as if you wanted to be known for thinking outside of the box you were in Rome and they couldn't figure it out and at the end of Rome times folks a gold Roman coin was 5% gold and the rest of it was brillium they were throwing coinage they were throwing fake money at their bills just like your leadership has been doing ever since Nixon but certainly since the turn of the century when they decided that they were never going to tell you the American individual the truth they were going to hide it from you because it just can't blow up on our watch our political system ends every four years for many people they can resign whenever they want to as long as it doesn't blow up while they're in power their legacy is intact so if you passed away today your money was intact as you left the planet but eventually there's a tomorrow where that likely isn't the case because the only example of governmental and financial bureaucratic and Wall Street oriented leadership is you get Reserve currency country status because of the people and you lose it because of the line and this is all just more lying and no one has ever been here before and orchestrated a way out ever so there so is there any chance that tariffs could uh soften the blow of this well we got some bad news on that front we put out this US economic report that we're selling to institutional investors and I'll share with you one detail right now the trade deficit is at a record and an economic downturn turn that trade deficit shrinks so we're going to you can you can do tariffs and and try to get rid of the Internal Revenue Service but in the depth of an economic uh downturn that opportunity just goes right away it's every recession we've had a smaller trade deficit this this trade deficit shrinks so it's kind of it's not gonna it's not going to happen in the immediately if that's the plan it's going to take time so they'll they'll be surprised to see the trade deficit shrink not because of the Tariff but because of the economic downturn happens every time okay could I ask Ed for theorizing on something out of time you mind sure go ahead I mean I just I'm cherishing the opportunity Ed um so in my opinion just quickly on tariffs the idea is to maybe bully people into making stuff here again or certainly keeping byd out of our Market uh as the Chinese were preparing to assemble those electric made cars in China in Mexico and drive them across the border via NAFTA what if what if our country one of the biggest things It suffers from is we don't make anything anymore so I won't go long at setting up the point I wanted to make with some background numbers but what if Trump gave American corporations three years to not make a damn thing outside of this country and then bring it here because these aren't Imports China didn't negotiate for its power it didn't negotiate for the technology it made rice and fireworks until our Congress people and corporate profiteers gave them the gifts of everything that we have learned over the last 100 years their wealth went from $330 billion GDP in 1990 to 171 18 trillion today all because of our corporate profiteers americanmade companies having stuff made made over there and our Congress people letting it happen so what if making stuff again literally everything and I know the hardship and you could probably articulate that very well would be terrible I may not say horrific but terrible but it would be the thing that does throw down a bit of a gauntlet and says we're at least going to be a country that lives and dies by what it makes and consumes here in this country China be damned China would go back into the rice P rice patties because they wouldn't have our economy that causes them to have one in the first place what if instead of tariffs we just said American corporations have three years and that's it nothing comes in if you're an American corporation nothing comes into this country from outside the country anymore and on a theoretical basis it sounds awesome and I agree with it the problem the the problem is the implementation right I know it'd be rough right so it you know right now uh Congress is pretty evenly divided we you know the the red team has a slight majority this time it it it it's something that would be awesome if it could happen but I just don't see that happening it needs to be done needs to be done but you know look look to your point what people don't understand is once we started the nap under Bill Clinton we began the financialization of the US economy on the back of the reserved currency so that's why the financial sector myself s included I was one of those people black rock that benefited from financialization of the economy when you step back and look at it we have an economy that's got insurance professionals stock broking professionals Wall Street professionals private Equity professionals we got and the other so that's harvesting the US economy from a financial standpoint then you have the Aging baby rumors Healthcare has been one of the the biggest growth sector so you're harvesting old and dying people we have an Economy based on Banking and harvesting and we don't have an economy for anything else at the moment that that's how I view it so it might shock you to know that out of a 100 transactions in 1990 that went off inside of America 82 of those transactions happened on something made here and today out of a hundred transactions that go off in America 11 happen on something made in America and there it is and this is why we have this generational uh problem that's why Trump won because the real wage growth is minus 2% it's the economy stupid and he's got he's got two years to make something happen he's only got two and if it gets away from them we got problems well I see it as the last piece of firm ground before the edge yeah last two years before the edge that's how I look at it and I'm not predicting thing I mean that's just me if he does austerity and you he he allows a recession to happen the Republicans will lose the house and the Senate and so then he's a lame duck and then they just go back to money printing well the key is he's got to jam his stuff right now so that it starts taking effect by you know at least the summer of 2026 you want to rip the Band-Aid off as fast as you can this what this is what happened to Ronald Reagan he got elected he had a recession in 81 then uh8 and end of 82 and 83 things started to take off we had the you know the booming 80s under R that's the hope that's what their that's their plan that's their model and it it has to happen quickly that and to be honest I was when Doge was announced I was you know mildly optimistic I'm surprised at the speed with with which they got in there they re you know rebranded a a government program us Digital Services and get in there right away I wasn't expecting this to happen quickly I was expecting you know committees policies legislation nonsense so the good news is they're moving fast they're going to break some stuff along the way but you got to root for the you got to root for Trump until you don't want to root for him okay well if they as Steve Bannon says they got to go across the pomac and go to the Pentagon so and Steve Steve Bannon is a voice of reason uh you know Jimmy did did you ever think years ago you would be agreeing with Steve Bannon on things no no it is a strange it is a strange world yes well Ed Dow the uh author of cause unknown the epidemic of sudden death in 2021 in 2022 and Paul stone at the Paul stone.
substack outcom I appreciate you both coming on thank you very much thank you Jimmy awesome awesome to meet you Paul and I've seen some of your YouTube videos so thank you wow I'm glad I'm sitting down right now I might fall over thank you Ed it's an honor to to be able to tangle with you a little on these issues and I I thank God for Jimmy setting it up thank you very much okay you guys get a room and uh I'll see you ever been with a bald man hey you know what I'm open mind these days all right okay all right gentlemen we got to go thank you very much I really appreciate it come see us on tour we're going to be in Baltimore Hartford Connecticut Syracuse Atlantic City levitown New York coost New York and Providence Rhode Island go to Jimmy door.com for a link for tickets
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