저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연준과 정부의 과도한 통화 발행으로 인플레이션이 심각하며 달러가 붕괴할 위험이 크다. 정부는 경기 문제를 계속 뒤로 미뤄왔고, 코로나 이후 대규모 돈 풀기로 문제를 더 키웠다. 통화량은 연 20~30% 수준으로 늘고 있다고 주장. 물가 측면: 공식 CPI 연환산은 약 8%이며, 실제 생활물가 상승률은 10~15%로 추정. 1970년대 최악 수준과 맞먹거나 능가한다고 주장. 미국 CPI 발표(5.3%, 근원 4%)에 대해서는 9개월 만에 예상보다 낮았지만 여전히 연 4% 이상이며 연준 목표 2%의 3배 수준이라고 평가. 주거비는 실제 임대·주택가격 상승을 반영하지 못하는 귀속임대료 방식 때문에 과소계상됐다고 주장. 금리 정상화 시 주식·주택시장 폭락, 은행 부실, 미국 정부의 연금·사회보장 등 채무 불이행 가능성을 경고. 그래서 연준이 금리를 올리지 못하고 버블을 계속 부풀릴 것이라는 전망. 세금 측면: 소득세뿐 아니라 인플레이션 자체가 실질적 세금이라고 주장하며, 개인이 합법적으로 세금을 최소화하는 것을 애국적 행위로 보고 정부보다 개인이 돈을 더 잘 쓴다는 입장. 투자 대상 언급: 달러 약세·구매력 하락을 전제로 하지만 특정 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 매수·매도 추천이나 가격 목표는 없음. 출연자 전망: 달러 붕괴, 인플레이션 장기화, 금리 인상 불가능이라는 장기적 비관론.
다듬은 글
well i mean everything they're doing is a mistake i mean there's a lot of problems with the economy and the reason the economy has so many problems is because the government has made so many mistakes but what we're experiencing now is just the consequences of all the can kicking see whenever the government creates a problem they don't want to deal with the problem because that's politically too dangerous all they care about is kicking the can down the road so that it's somebody else's problem after the next election well all we've done is catch up to the can you know every time we catch up to it it's bigger there's bit there's more problems than it had before and so that's what we're experiencing now in the economy because when covet happened we really gave the can a big big kick because covet really exposed a lot of the problems in the economy in in an even bigger way but again rather than dealing with those problems just like we failed to deal with them after the housing bubble popped or we failed to deal with them after the dot-com bubble popped uh we again made the same mistake which is we printed more money we lowered interest rates right we gave everybody more money to spend so they can buy more products that they didn't make with money they didn't earn all in order to keep this whole house of cards from falling apart but it is going to fall apart it is impossible for the government to do this indefinitely because the amount of money they have to print eventually becomes fatal to the value of the dollar inflation is the expansion of the money supply that's the actual definition and so money supply is growing what 20 a year 30 a year it's really really big now as far as um what is the actual increase in the cost of living the consumer prices which is what most people uh think about when you talk about inflation well the way the government measures it using the cpi if you annualize you know the first half or the first five months of this year i think we're running it about eight percent a year increasing the cost of living but i don't think that accurately reflects what's really happening with prices because i don't think the consumer price index really captures the true extent to which prices are going up so my guess would be that right now we have annual inflation probably between 10 and 15 right now that's what americans are experiencing as far as their cost of living which certainly rivals or exceeds the worst of the 1970s so we've already got that the thing is the fed and the government is telling us and everybody is telling us this that it's all transitory that this is all just related to the reopening of the economy and so we don't have to worry about it but that's not why we have this the the prices are going up because of what the government did in response to coven not because of cobit not because of the reopening it's because of all the money printing it's because of all the deficit spending yes the fact that we're not producing as much stuff is part of the problem a lot of people aren't working and so they didn't make stuff but the problem is as we made less stuff we printed more money that was a huge mistake we should have printed less money the feds should have drained liquidity as the economy contracted not added they just threw gasoline on the fire so deflation is going to get much much worse uh what people are experiencing now the only trans the only the only way this is transitory is that we're transitioning to much higher inflation five point three percent uh cpi four percent core inflation what's your read on these numbers well you know first of all you have to take them in context i mean this is the first report that we've received now in nine months that was lower than expected uh so they were looking for point four for the month and we got point three but you know most of the time we get a much bigger number so a lot of people are taking a lot of solace in the fact that we finally have one number we broke a nine a month streak of having worse than expected numbers and now we get one number that's not as bad as expected and somehow we're out of the woods i think that's ridiculous you know if you annualize even that point three that annualizes to four percent inflation a year which in and of itself is pretty bad but if you look at the actual increase in consumer prices in the first eight months of this calendar year and then annualize that that's six point four percent so we're still triple the two percent that the fed is claiming it's the target you know it says it wants to be slightly above two percent right well we're not even in the neighborhood of two percent and the number would be much much higher if the government was not using owner's equivalent rent which is you know like a third of the index and this number is supposed to represent housing costs but it doesn't even come close because if you look at what's actually happening to rents or home prices we've never seen these kind of increases these are double-digit increases in the cost of buying or renting a home yet none of that is reflected in the cpi in fact the government claims that shelter prices are rising so slowly that it's actually weighing down the cpi the number would be much higher obviously if we use the real rate of increase of rent or home prices not what the government is pretending uh the increase is have we got to the point where we overdose on qe and money printing and all that but certainly if the fed were to stop and let interest rates rise to you know where the free market would put them uh the stock market would crash the housing market would crash the economy would implode banks would fail much much worse than 08 and the u.s government would be forced to default i mean it would have to default on its obligations to pay benefits like social security and medicare it would have to default on uh government pensions on treasury bonds i mean all of these chickens would come home to roost so they're not going to let that happen right the politicians at the federal reserve are going to do everything they can to keep blowing air into this bubble until it explodes so when that happens you know the dollar you know implodes because they can keep printing money as long as the world keeps accepting it right they can keep giving everybody money to spend as long as the people that actually make the stuff are willing to exchange it for the money we print well at some point it does you know they won't want it anymore and then you know the music stops well i mean it's not what you make right it's what you keep i mean that's we all know that and um you know it's an american's patriotic duty to minimize their taxes to pay the lowest tax that they could legally pay and that's not me that's the supreme court said that so i'm being a patriotic american and personally i believe that any gov money the government gets the government wastes i think money in my hands is is going to do better than money in the government hands and that applies to every american keep the money that you earn but it's not just the income tax which i think is so debilitating to the economy it's the inflation tax we're talking about inflation inflation is a tax if you strip it of all the jargon that's what it boils down to because governments have two ways of taking money from us they can take it through taxes where they take physically our money or they can take our purchasing power through inflation they just print money and they spend that but that means the value of our money goes down because prices go up you
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