저자: Henry · 외국인
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엔비디아 4:1 액면분할 이후 주가를 분석하고, 기술적 분석(60일 이동평균, 볼린저밴드)을 근거로 단기 횡보를 예상해 콜 크레딧 스프레드(옵션 매도) 전략을 소개함. 분할 자체는 시가총액과 밸류에이션을 바꾸지 않는다고 설명. 장기적으로는 200달러 이상 재도전 가능성을 언급. 옵션 교육 프로그램 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
let's get right into it nvidia is one of the world's most talked about chip makers in the whole world and its stock has just recently split four to one it's the market cap leader in gaming gpus it's top tier gpus process ai tasks for data centers and driverless cars and its arm-based cpus power gaming consoles set-top boxes and servers there's just so many things to like about this business and it also benefits tremendously from bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market rising as well but listen the question is is the stock fairly valued after the stock split is it a buy right now and more importantly for some of the option traders that watch my channel and our subscribers i have a trade for you that's seven percent return opportunity in just the week on nvidia later in this video so you're not gonna want to miss this before i jump in and flood your pockets with money make sure that you smash the smash button for uncle henry that's all i ask and subscribe to the dopest youtube channel you guys already know i deliver that value and i keep it 100 with you all i'm trying to do is help you guys grow your portfolio to the next level and i do want to say if you want some personal help daily trades and coaching you can book a free call with my team to learn about the weekly option income academy and with that being said let's jump into nvidia stock splits are some of the most interesting things that happen in the stock market tesla and apple had a stock split and a lot of investors are going absolutely wild before they split and as soon as the stock split happened well tesla had a major pullback and apple did not do a whole lot so what you guys have to understand is if there's one thing to take away from the stock portion of this video it is that a stock split makes the shares cheaper but it doesn't affect the valuation the market cap or financials of a company this is a psychological phenomena and investors see a cheaper stock price so they think well hey this stock must be a better value but no that just isn't true and i do have to agree that the stock is easier to trade now but it's not cheaper in terms of market cap but i'm still bullish on the stock and i have ideas of where it's going to go next the business is rapidly expanding and nvidia has seemed to dominate headlines more frequently than pretty much any other chip maker stock lately its proposed purchase of arms holdings has been something that investors have needed to digest nvidia agreed to buy arm holdings which is one of the world's largest ship designers for 40 billion dollars from softbank last september and arm doesn't manufacture any chips but it licenses its designs to chip makers like qualcomm and apple arm-based ships now power over 95 of the world's smartphones so if nvidia buys arms it will support the development of current arm-based cpus including tegra and the data center oriented grace and other new cpus but this acquisition won't close anytime soon due to antitrust probes opposition from rival chip makers and a lengthy legal battle against arms china's ceo alan wu who is refusing to resign even after being kicked to the curb these are some of the reasons that the stock has had some tremendous momentum along with of course the global chip shortage nvidia outsources the production of its ships to samsung and taiwan semiconductor manufacturing therefore the global chip shortage which started before the pandemic but was exasperated by the crisis will impact its ability to meet the market's demand for new chips during last quarter's conference called nvidia cfo colette cress warned that it would remain supply constraint into the second half of the year analysts still expect nvidia's revenue to jump 49 this year thanks for robot's demand for gaming and data center gpus but its growth rates would likely be even higher if it weren't facing a global chip shortage this chip shortage isn't going to continue on forever i don't know how long because i'm not a genie in a bottle and i can't predict the future but if you think about it nvidia is crushing it with a shortage so imagine what nvidia is going to do without a shortage another component of nvidia you need to understand is the relationship with the crypto market when cryptocurrency prices surged back in 2017 many miners hoarded nvidia's gaming gpus which resulted in a market shortage and higher prices for pc gamers but when crypto prices plunged in 2018 those same miners pretty much sold their used gpu cards at a lower price which flooded the market with excess inventories and curb demand for nvidia's newer gpus earlier this year nvidia took proactive steps to avoid another bubble by having the hash rate or mining efficiency for ethereum in its new rtx gaming gpus it also announced it would launch dedicated cmp which just stands for cryptocurrency mining processors products for miners unfortunately miners quickly circumvented nvidia's anti-mining measures and dumped them amid china's cryptocurrency crackdown and an upcoming tweak to ethereum which will make it impossible for traditional gpus to mine the cryptocurrency for a profit nvidia does depend heavily on cryptocurrency pricing which is both a good thing and a bad thing in the general crypto market i'm going to tie this factor into the option analysis i do later and show you guys why i'm selling call credit spreads nvidia's four to 1 stock split today has attracted attention from investors who previously thought its shares looked too expensive that's why it's such a good time to trade options on nvidia in theory splitting nvidia stock could attract some smaller retail investors who don't want to pay 750 for a single share but most trading platforms including robinhood already offered free fractional trades so you shouldn't really expect nvidia stock split to send the stock to the moon just like a split didn't do that for tesla or apple back in late august with that being said let's jump into my screen so i can show you guys some options trading that i have for you all right guys i got a big trade coming for you for nvidia stock and specifically this is actually the fourth option that i've opened on nvidia four weeks in a row the first week we made six percent seven percent six percent those were all trades that i posted in the private group and this is actually the fourth week that we're executing on nvidia and again we collected over five percent per week and so far we're up fifteen dollars i'm gonna explain to you guys exactly what i did and exactly what i've been doing on nvidia stock over and over again to make five or six or even seven percent of returns per week and specifically it's called a call credit spread and the first thing that i want to do is i want to do some technical analysis on nvidia and then after i do the technical analysis we're going to do some option trading all right guys so we're going to take a look at the technical analysis and we're going to look at a few specific things that really helped me decide where a stock is trading at in relation to its history and the first thing i want to look at is moving average and specifically i'm going to be using the 60-day moving average this gives me an idea of hey where is nvidia at right now and where was nvidia at on average for the past 60 days so that's the first thing that i'm going to do and the second thing that i'm going to do is i'm going to look at bollinger bands so as you guys already know i've mentioned bowling your bands a couple of times on this channel already bollinger bands really helped me understand where a stock is likely to trade within in terms of the range going forward and because i know what range is likely to trade within it gives me a very good understanding of where i want to sell options and specifically what i'm going to do is i'm going to sell a call credit spread and i want to know what is the upper range for where i can sell that strike price so i don't end up getting hurt so i can actually end up collecting that weekly income so taking a look here guys nvidia has had some consolidation in the past but then we had that huge and i mean massive run-up and i mean it's gone up tremendously so it was at 140 dollars and it pulled up all the way i don't even know if bull is pulled up is a word i just made that up it build up from 140 to over 200 per share and again we see this interesting pattern where you see a double peak so there was a double peak around 205 206 dollars per share and that's where i'm very comfortable selling call credit spreads because you guys can clearly see we're at the top of the bollinger band range so this orange line this orange um little area here that's highlighted this is the bollinger band range so the top of the range is around 205 206 dollars per share and now actually nvidia is trending lower towards the bottom of the range and this is not surprising after you see such a huge bull uh movement upwards so now nvidia is actually retracing back to maybe this level of around 181 dollars and actually quickly want to scroll down i want to look at the rsi the rsi here is around 45 give or take maybe 46.
so in that area 4546 that means that nvidia is currently trading within the range of about what investors would expect so we're neither overvalued nor are we undervalued again if it were to go down to 171 which is where the moving average comes into play if it were to be 171 i would be a buyer of the stock because it's retracing back to where it's been for the past 60 days so i would love to get in at around 171 however obviously the stock is at 185 and on the top of the range it's 205 so you guys have a very good understanding that in terms of buying the stock i would love to buy it around 171 but obviously 175 would be phenomenal and on the top of the range over 200 i think it's just a little bit overvalued at that point so right now it's about where it should be and in terms of a price prediction short term i think it's going to have some sideways action which is where selling options is going to be very profitable however in the long term i do expect nvidia to continue with the momentum i think it's going to retouch the tops of over 200 per share so let's jump back into robinhood now that we have an understanding of where nvidia is likely to be traded as you guys can see i have a trade that is placed at 205.206.25 for the call options that is a hundred and twenty five dollar spread right there and for that spread we've actually collected a total of 23 dollars so 23 divided by 125 dollars you have an over 20 returns so actually guys what i realized and why i was a little bit confused and this is very interesting to study here and the reason why i want to actually call out one of my mistakes in this video right here is that it's actually 125 but the reason why it's such a weird spread when i was looking at it i'm like i could have sworn i had a 500 spread and in fact i do because if you guys notice here because the stock split actually the options split as well so now there's four contracts um and obviously four times 125 dollars is a 500 spread so i actually collected 23 on 500 which is about that 5 return that i was talking about not 20 that 20 makes no sense i was like there's no way nvidia options are that profitable in just the week so again going back to what i knew the return actually was about five percent and because nvidia options have split if you owned one option you now own four options so guys what i actually want to do is i want to place a real live trade and show you exactly what i would do if i was going to open up a new call credit spread and in fact i don't mind doing that because nvidia is a good stock that i would love to have more call credit spreads on specifically because i think we're going to be having some sideways action i don't think nvidia is going to really reach let's take a look back at the chart i don't think we're going to reach 196 per share again so let's see if we can make some money off of the 196 level if i go to sell call okay and i'm not going to go for july 23rd because there's just not that much time so i'd rather open up july 30th let's see what we can work with for july 30th and goodness this is very strange as you guys can tell all the strikes are now really wonky i mean you never see a strike that's 186.88 again it's because of the stock split so oh that's a pretty weird amount of numbers i think what i'm going to do guys is i'm going to trade the 190 no 190 is probably too close let me let me open up the 190.
the delta is 40 so no no heck no too high of a delta guys when you're selling options you want to go for a lower delta way way way way way way way to two to two high sorry for being a weirdo uh 195 let's see the delta here 0.27 guys is pretty reasonable however however i'm probably gonna go a little bit safer because we saw 196 was the level i really wanted to be around 190 650 because that's the middle of the bollinger band so let's go for around 190 650 190 688 guys that is that's some interesting style i'm just gonna go for 197 and a half just be super safe here so let's open up that we're gonna sell the 197.5 and we're probably just going to open up a 125 dollar trade right here it just makes the most sense i could probably go for a 250 trade right i can go for the 200.
and that that actually looks good to me guys i'm going to put 250 at risk and um sell so i have to buy this and if you guys don't understand i'm probably gonna make a whole video on call credit spreads essentially you're opening up one option right and then you're opening up a second option that's a little bit further out of the money so i'm collecting more premium on the 197.5 right i'm going to be collecting 159 and then i'm going to be covering and closing my position basically so i don't have that unlimited risk if you sell call options you have unlimited risk i'm going to be buying the 200 call option that way i close off right because even in worst case scenario and video goes to a bajillion bajillion dollars my 200 call option will protect my 197.5 call option from an unlimited risk so you basically close off that trade in the difference of capital that you really need is just 250 at 200 bucks minus 197.5 that's 250 bucks right there and um you're collecting the difference in terms of the premium so i'm selling 159 and i'm paying one 117 here okay and the difference is 42 for oh that's such a good trade 42 dollars and by the way your max loss isn't really 250 because you're collecting 42 your max loss is only really about 208 dollars so let's just call it 40 of profit for two hundred dollars worth of risk 40 divided by 200 that's a 20 return so i guess i wasn't lying you can make 20 in just what like seven trading days here so let's open that up right now guys that's a fantastic trade about 20 return um let's just open this up i'm just gonna do one one of these and um i'm gonna put 0.39 because i really want to get executed and not waste your guys time because if i put 0.4 then i have to wait for it if it doesn't get executed so 0.39 let's see boom guys we made 39 on 211 dollars worth of capital so basically about 20 return and a single trade in seven days so if you guys don't like this trade i really don't know how to make you happy because 20 return and a little bit over like seven days or even if it's eight days what does it matter that's such a huge return you can get so wealthy trading options so guys let's wrap up with the video if you do want to learn how to produce consistent weekly income and create cash flows safely without taking a lot of risk or waiting impatiently for a single stock to grow then definitely check out the link in the description to the brand new option income academy where i go over my option calls picks and plays in real time breaking down my full thought process you will also get very hands-on access to me and my team of six and seven-figure coaches click the application link below to see if you qualify for some free training and as always guys be aggressive in learning but be safe investing no one never sees me sees me
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