저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 증시는 고점을 형성했을 가능성이 높으며, 향후 수년간 주식으로 큰 수익을 내기 어렵고 명목상 하락이 크지 않더라도 실질(인플레이션 조정) 기준으로는 하락할 수 있다는 견해다. [증시 고점 논리] 1965~1973년 고점 사례를 근거로 들었다. 유틸리티는 1965~66년에, 성장·투기주와 복합기업은 1968년에, 'Nifty 50'으로 불린 약 50개 우량 성장주는 1973년에 고점을 찍었고, 이후 1973년 1월~1974년 12월 사이 평균 약 70% 하락했다. 코닥, 폴라로이드, 제록스, 시어스, JC페니 등이 '품질이 좋아 경기와 무관하게 영원히 성장한다'는 믿음 아래 높은 프리미엄을 받았다는 점을 경고 사례로 들었다. [최근 시장 진단] 2021년 밈주식·투기주 고점과 2022년 1월 추가 고점 이후 하락했고, 이후 재상승장에서도 대부분 종목은 신고가를 못 냈다. 반도체와 이른바 '매그니피센트 7'만 신고가를 경신해 S&P500과 나스닥을 끌어올렸다. 전반적으로 향후 수년간 주식에서 큰 돈을 벌기 어렵다고 봤다. [거시 전망] 트럼프 행정부가 재정적자를 확대하고 돈을 계속 찍어낼 경우 인플레이션이 더 높아질 가능성이 있다. 이 경우 주식은 명목가격으로는 크게 떨어지지 않더라도 실질가치(물가 조정 또는 금 대비)로는 하락할 수 있다고 봤다. 귀금속(금)이 상대적 대안으로 언급됐다. [삶의 질·국가 비교] 영국 등 서구 일부 지역은 제조업 붕괴와 마을 공동화로 상대적 쇠퇴를 겪었다고 평가했다. 반면 자본주의 확산으로 중국·인도·베트남 등 신흥국 일반인의 생활수준은 40년 전보다 크게 개선됐다고 봤다. 미국은 1960~70년대가 정점이었고 이후 절대적 쇠퇴는 아니지만 중국 대비 상대적 쇠퇴가 있다고 평가했다. 일본의 '잃어버린 30년'에 대해서는 증시 신고가가 없었다는 점만으로 나라가 쇠퇴했다고 보기 어렵다는 입장이다. [기타] 아시아(싱가포르·홍콩·태국)의 치안과 인프라가 부동산 가격을 떠받친다고 언급했다. 미국 외교정책은 자국 이익 중심이었다고 비판했다. 개별 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 목표나 1~3개월 방향성 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
In my opinion, the American stock market has peaked , but I analyzed the peak between 1965 and 1973. It was a very interesting peak in the sense that some stocks and indices, like the utilities sector, peaked in 1965-66, and then other stocks— growth stocks, speculative stocks, and conglomerates— peaked in 1968, and finally in 1973, about 50 stocks.
We called them the "Nifty 50" back then . Companies like Kodak, Polaroid, Xerox, Sears, and J.C. Penney , continued to rise as investors argued that their quality was superior to other companies and that they would grow regardless of whether the weather was fine, cloudy, or raining. In other words, throughout the business cycle, they would feel the impact to some extent, but would actually continue to grow forever.
So people paid huge premiums for these stocks, but in the end they also fell an average of 70% between the January peak of '73 and the December low of '74. So I think in our case we had a peak of meme stocks and speculative stocks in 2021, and some in January 2022, then we went down, and after that we had a bull market again.
But most stocks failed to reach new highs; However, some, like semiconductors and the so-called "Magic Seven," reached new highs, and they pushed indexes like the S&P and Nasdaq to new highs as well. But overall, I don't think you'll make much money in stocks in the coming years. Perhaps if the US government under Trump continues to print money and increase the fiscal deficit, the government's budget deficit, it is likely that we will face even higher levels of inflation.
So, in nominal terms, stocks may not fall much, but they will probably fall in real terms, adjusted for inflation or, say , relative to precious metals like gold. This is quite possible. As an economist and social observer, I am always interested in the question of how people's living standards are changing.
Is it getting better or worse? And if you look at the world over the last 100 years, I can assume that for the typical British citizen, the standard of living has not improved dramatically. Yes, today they have running water, toilets with running water, etc., which they didn't have 100-150 years ago.
But from a societal perspective and relative position in the world, if you think back to, say , 1900, the British could still enter a country like China and actually destroy it or defeat the Chinese in battle, that would be impossible today. So, we have to look at everything in a complex way. But overall, if we look at the whole world and all the people in the world—and I always explain this to socialists— capitalism has allowed poor people to significantly improve their standard of living.
I mean, if you think about China or India in 1900, the majority of the population was actually living at or below the poverty line. And today, well, people complain about China and the " open door" policy that began in 1978 under Deng Xiaoping. But the reality is that since then -- if you take 1980 as a starting point and today -- and I see this because I've been to all these countries before, and I've recently been to China, India, Vietnam -- I've noticed that the average man or woman is much better off today than they were 40 years ago.
There is no doubt about that . And if I go to Germany, Switzerland, Britain, or Ireland, I'm not sure that the average person has a better life today than they did 40 years ago. It has more modern technology, we have cell phones, which we did n't have when I was, you know, 40 years old in 1980. But now we also have other problems that we didn't have back then .
And the fact is simply that when you walk around Britain or Ireland, you see a lot of abandoned villages because there are no opportunities left. I mean, the entire manufacturing sector in the Midlands in England was destroyed. So I can say with confidence : some countries rose, while others stagnated.
And when we talk about, you know, a rise or an expansion, it's all relative to others . So, the world's population is growing, but some people are living much better lives, while others are experiencing at least relative decline. It is very important to understand this relative decline. And historically, I mean, you have to look at countries like the United States.
In my opinion, the peak in the US was in the 60s and 70s, and they have n't declined since then, not at all , but they have experienced a relative decline compared to, say, China. It's really hard for me to really define the " lost decade ." I mean, I'm a securities investor . I am an investor in financial markets.
I could argue that Japan after 1989, after the Nikkei peak, was a lost country for three decades . You know, because the market never reached new heights. But the bond market grew, and I went to Japan every year . I never once felt that Japan's economy was in terrible shape. Never. Japan has always been clean, everything worked on time, and the service and manufacturing sectors were close to perfection.
So there was no impression that the country was in recession. And yet people say it was a lost decade . Therefore, it is very difficult for me to define what a lost decade is . It's the same. I live in Thailand. People say : "Oh, this is a failed state ." This is not my opinion. The country functions quite well because the government doesn't do much.
He more or less does not interfere in the economy, and it is a pleasant country to live in. Do you understand? People's well-being depends not only on whether the stock market sets new records. This is what I want to emphasize. If the stock market is constantly going up, and every time you go outside you're worried that some crazy person is going to beat you up—that's not very nice.
Do you understand? So, I wonder why people pay high prices for property in Singapore and Hong Kong? Partly because of the excellent infrastructure that these countries have, and secondly because of security. This applies to most Asian countries. You can walk around Singapore, Hong Kong or Thailand at night at 4am and no one will hit you or steal your wallet.
This will not happen. This can happen. I mean, one in a million, but it doesn't usually happen. Whereas when you walk alone at night at 4 am in Chicago, Baltimore, San Francisco, etc., it can be dangerous. At least that's what I'm told. I don't live there, but that's what I'm told. And that's what I'm reading.
The newspapers are full of such incidents. I want to laugh when I hear that the US is helping someone. When in US history has the US ever really helped anyone? Everything they did in foreign policy was aimed at achieving their own goals, their own games, which they sought to win in order to benefit.
Whether it was the intervention during World War I or World War II, or later during the Suez Crisis, and so on, or the interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan—they were not there to help. They were helped to gain an advantage there. And my opinion on this, when I analyze or think about whether I would want to live in a country that is, let's say, controlled by China, Russia or the United States, I think I would choose the United States , because there is such a mess there that it would be quite difficult to control you . They can try to do it, but I think it might be quite difficult.
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