저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼은 넷플릭스를 여전히 훌륭한 사업으로 보지만, 성장 예측 가능성이 낮아져 매도했다고 설명한다. 매도 근거: 최초 투자 논리는 코로나 관련 일시적 가입자 둔화였으나, 무료 비밀번호 공유 가입자가 예상보다 훨씬 많다는 새 정보가 확인되며 논리가 훼손됐다. 유료 전환과 기존 스마트TV 보급률 한계로 성장 여력이 제한된다고 봤다. 광고요금제: 넷플릭스는 수익 모델 유지를 위해 광고 요금제 도입이 필요하나 경험이 없고, 창업자 리드 헤이스팅스가 광고를 싫어해온 점도 리스크로 꼽았다. 스포티파이 사례와 비교하며 소비자 수용 여부를 주목했다. 주가 이력: 약 700달러에서 300달러대로 하락 후 당시 약 240달러 수준이었고, 5년 기준 약 65% 하락을 저평가 매수 계기로 언급했다. 방송 직전 실적 발표 후 시간외에서 약 14% 상승해 매도 판단이 틀렸을 가능성도 언급했다. 매도 원칙: 투자 논리와 상충하는 새 사실이 나오면 논리를 억지로 꿰맞추지 말고 매도해야 하며, 이는 감정이 아닌 경제적 합리성의 문제라고 했다. 테슬라 사례를 가정으로 들어 경쟁 심화 시 매도 필요성을 설명했다. 실수에 대한 태도: 워런 뱅갈, 존 템플턴 인용을 통해 최고의 투자자도 3번 중 1번은 틀린다고 하며, 400bp 손실은 큰 금액이지만 고수익 전략에서 감당 가능하다고 봤다. 출연자 전망: 넷플릭스 향후 주가 방향에 대한 명시적 방향성 예측은 없었다(매도 후 재평가 가능성만 언급).
다듬은 글
hi JJ here with the other value in a recent interview super investor Bill Eckman was asked what has red flags at for deciding to sell a company he had two main points to his answer but Ekman answered with a good amount of detail as well and he used his recent sale of Netflix as an example after only holding the stock for a few months which is unusual for him ekman's second main point came in the form of advice to retail investors about when to sell a stock so let's get into it let's see what he said firstly he said even though he's sold he thinks Netflix is still a great business and he says read Hastings and the team have built a remarkable business that has brought Delight to people all over the world a lot of people it points out that almost everyone has a Netflix subscription now but that's part of the problem in order for the business to be valuable he says it has to grow at a rapid rate keep growing at a rapid rate he said what initially intrigued them was the stock price going from 700 to in the 300s and it's now about 240 as I'm recording this what interested him was when the stock went down he thought if the business could maintain its historical growth rate it became a very undervalued business now if you're watching on YouTube or on Spotify video you'll see on the screen I've got the recent activity from Ekman his fund and you can see they sold out 100 of Netflix after only holding it for a few months so something happened there that caused them to sell now on the screen I've got a five-year stock graph of Netflix and you'll see why they got interested it dropped how much it dropped it dropped 65 so that's a huge drop so Eckman has a value investing mindset he likes Buffett follows Buffett so he likes when stocks become undervalued that have got a good future a good long-term future so as we can see on the screen now the stock price on Netflix went back to to 2018 January 2018 so that's a huge amount of the stock price wiped out so you can see why he got interested initially when the stock price dropped as I'm reporting this Netflix just reported after hours so it's going to be interesting to see what's happened in the next session but it after hours it jumped 14 so it'll be interesting to see was Ackman wrong it kind of looks like the growth rate might have picked up I haven't looked at it in depth I just saw that news but I just thought I'd include that in the video because that might be important I don't think he's going to buy it back this is what Ekman said about his initial thesis for Netflix and let me get this exactly right in his words our initial thesis based on the due diligence we had done and what management had stated was that the Miss and subscriber growth in the quarter was more sort of covert related difficult to predict not due to reaching the Headroom of potential growth so we thought the different subscriber growth was just could be just temporary covert related and it would pick up again so this is zachmann's first main point about a reason to sell why to sell he says you should sell an investment when you learn new information which is inconsistent with the original thesis so you had an original thesis facts have changed and you sell if you're watching on YouTube and you're enjoying this episode please consider giving us a like it would help the channel grow and I'd really appreciate it thanks the new info he said he learned that changed his mind was that non-paying subscribers so-called password sharing subscribers that number was much higher than they initially thought that's what changed his mind that from getting people to move from having free Netflix to being free customers to paying would be quite a challenge quite a challenging thing to do in addition to that he said and when you add the existing base of subscribers to the subscribers that had a free ride if you will you're hitting up against the number of smart TVs in the world so overall he says the ability to grow the Miss in the quarter and the missing in the second quarter we're probably not covert related as he initially thought but rather because you're getting closer to the ultimate limits of growth at least based on existing smartphone and smart TV penetration so that was a real concern so adding all those together he thought that was enough to sell the second thing that was inconsistent with the original thesis that I think is really interesting what he said was retastings hated advertising he never wanted advertising on Netflix and they acknowledged that in order to make the math work the business model work we're going to have to go to an ad supported tier in our pricing and there's something they have no experience with so I found that interesting because uh Spotify I'm a Spotify shareholder and they've always had it had an ad supported model or a freemium model so people are used to advertising on Netflix people have always paid apart from those free free password sharing subscribers so to introduce advertising he thought would be difficult and it's going to be interesting to see if Netflix makes that work Eckman said that he's in the business of finding companies where we can predict with a very high degree of confidence where the business looks like over a very long period of time and what it sounded like there that what changed about Netflix is that he decided he could not do that with Netflix further to that and this sounds very Buffet like he says the only way to value a company in our mind is not just pick a multiple of next year's earnings it's finding the business where we can predict the height with a higher degree of confidence what the cash flows will be over many many years and build a model that's as I said that sounds very like Buffett and manga that's the way I'd like to do it to be able to predict over long term with confidence what the business might be like and say 10 20 30 years over decades and that's what he thinks about Netflix he says specifically and we lost the ability to build that model with Netflix because the dispersion of potential outcomes and AD supported streaming is successful or it's not and the growth rate is slower than we expected or it's not there's a risk profile change predictability of change so we sold so they could didn't feel have a high confidence that they could predict the future of Netflix any longer that's why they sold even though it might do well he acknowledged that it could do well the risk factor changed though and that meant they were out we give a solder company sold a stock because the your thesis changed the facts change and you decided to sell and it was a good decision to do so let me know in the comments and let me know what you think about what bill says as well so this brings us to a second main point and his advice to a retail investor he says the advice to a retail investor would be if you bought Tesla because you love the cars you thought you were paying a fair price for the stock and you thought it was going to grow at some kind of basis and then Lucid or someone else or BMW comes out with a car that's much better than Tesla and you expect all of a sudden Tesla not to have some monopolistic share of the business you know you should sell now I should say he's not saying that's the case with Tesla he's saying that if he's giving a hypothetical example I mean people are pretty keen on Tesla pretty have a high conviction so he's saying that the thesis can change it does change so if that happened with Tesla you'd have to make the hard decision to sell so that's the point too and let me get this right in his own words so if you have a thesis going and then new facts emerge that are inconsistent with a thesis generally if you keep twisting that thesis to come up with a reason for owning the stock it's going to be a problem so if you've had eye conviction and the facts change and you kind of want to twist the thesis saying oh it still might work and kind of fall in love with the stock fall in love with the company about the facts change you can twist your thesis to still think it might work but it it probably won't so that's a reason to sell he said it didn't take much courage to sell Netflix in the end because it was the economically rational thing to do you look check the facts check the risk profile and decided to sell any things that was the right thing to do so no courage involved at all even if he used to have high conviction before the facts changed so on making mistakes and remember Manish pebbrai has said through John Sir John Templeton that the very best investors make are going to be wrong one out of three times a third of the time and very good investors are going to be wrong about half the time and that's okay you can still do well but he says everything we do is Big so a mistake the numbers will be large and so we're kind of used to that but we don't like making mistakes we don't make many mistakes but if we make one you're going to read about it in the news and it's going to sound really big he also says 400 million was a lot to lose a lot of money to lose or 400 basis points four percent but this is a high return strategy that they're doing and we can afford to lose 400 basis points where we find so acknowledges that they made a decision to sell they made a mistake to buy it in the first place or maybe it wasn't a mistake whatever maybe it was a mistake to sell we'll find out later but they'll recover and they're fine they're just used to dealing with big with big money it is a lot of money overall but in percentage chance it's not really and that's the most important thing those were bill eggman's main points about when to sell a stock if you found value in this episode if you've enjoyed it please consider subscribing on YouTube if you haven't already or in your favorite podcast app if you're there please follow And subscribe and I'll see you next time
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