저자: 빌애크먼 · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼은 지금 주식 매수 시기로 나쁘지 않다고 보며, 고품질 기업을 장기적으로 보유하라고 강조한다. 시장 판단: 2020년 3월처럼 좋은 진입점 중 하나라고 보며, 향후 3~5년 이상 장기 투자자에게 괜찮은 시점이라고 말한다. 단기 3~12개월 예측은 불확실하다고 명시. 인플레이션·금리: 미국 인플레이션은 이미 완화 조짐(휘발유 가격 하락, 임금·공급망 문제 해소)이며, 연준의 공격적 긴축이 도움이 될 것이라 봄. 종착 금리는 4%대 전망. 장기 인플레이션은 과거 2%로 돌아가지 않을 것으로 봄(제조업 리쇼어링, ESG 비용). 보유 전략: 최대 10개 내외 종목 집중, 거시 헤지(금리 관련 약 27억 달러 수익, 2020년 CDS 26억 달러 수익) 병행. 가격결정력(pricing power)과 로열티형 기업 선호: 유니버설뮤직, 레스토랑브랜즈, 힐튼, 로우스, 캐나다퍼시픽철도 등. 매매 동향: 도미노피자와 넷플릭스 매도, 치폴레·힐튼 소폭 감축. 현금 보유 중이며 좋은 기회를 기다리는 중. 퍼싱스퀘어 자사주 매입(하루 5만 주)을 최고의 투자라고 언급. 리스크: 2023년 경기침체 가능성 있음. S&P500은 연초 대비 크게 하락했으나 애크먼은 '적정~저평가'로 판단. 그럼에도 자본 전액 투입보다는 일부 현금 보유와 분할 매수 권고. 출연자 전망: 주식 매수는 장기 관점, 기업 품질 중심이며 단기 트레이딩 지향 아님.
다듬은 글
hi JJ here with the outer value in a very recent interview super investor Bill Eckman said this about buying stocks in today's market I think today is a pretty good time it's a pretty good point of entry said March 2020 was obviously a very very good point of entry as well and he said so at the time on TV just like he's saying so now he also said in the interview recently I think it's sort of another moment he's talking about another moment apart from 2020 it's a pretty good time to commit more Capital to equity markets although you've got to pick carefully it goes on to give a lot more information about that that why you think it's a good time to buy his strategy and markets what he's doing now and his investing strategy in general so let's take a look at that his usual strategy his ongoing strategy is to own a maximum of about 10 stocks earn less than that but also to have some macro Hedges some opportunistic Hedges that have been working out very well they've made billions and increasingly in this environment it's worked out really well for them firstly on his own company Pershing Square City feels quite good about it in 2022 they've made significant profits on macro Hedges they like the companies they own and they're a little bit ahead of the S P 500 which hasn't actually been doing well but he feels good about where it's at at the moment does the move and interest rates have brought multiples down to companies which of course has brought the price of the stocks that they own down the companies that they own but he said they feel comfortable with that and they like them even more at the valuations that they are now on the subject of possible recession and inflation he says he thinks that inflation is already selling to moderate at least in the US this gas prices starting to come down there's some moderation and wage inflation and supply chain issues are starting to be resolved he says that he thinks all that leads to the tempering of inflation and the FED is also being very aggressive which will obviously help too he thinks in taming inflation he says about the time of Jay Powell's talk at Jackson Hole the world woke up to how serious the Fed was about getting inflation down and raising rates and so the markets pricing in perhaps more aggressive rates than the FED will actually do that's what he thinks he says he thinks the so-called terminal rate will have a four in front of it but he says in q1 next year he thinks inflation will will be start moderating at least he hopes that's the case how this is relevant to buying stocks right now it's relevant to the value of companies he says the long-term inflation rate he says he doesn't think we're going back to two percent is it the world's changed and he doesn't see that happening so it's a different world now different environment two reasons he gives for a higher General inflation environment is one manufacturing coming back to the US or close to the us including Mexico which will generally be more expensive he thinks and also ESG the the trend to ESG which is more expensive in general so he says that's why a reason for higher inflation in general is companies with pricing power will do well in the new environment and he thinks he owns some of those companies and he also likes the royalty like companies which they own and he explains why that's a good thing he explains some of the companies that they own and why they have good royalties versus Universal Music He said that if Spotify raises their prices which I think is the plan I'm a Spotify shareholder then they immediately flows through to Universal Music so the pricing power he says music even in a research and people listen to music and even in bad times another one is restaurant Brands he says that they have royalties on the Burgers and Fries so if prices get raised in there and the fast food chains then that flows through as well so it's like a royalty on fast food the other one he talks about is Hilton he says that you know hotel rooms can raise their prices and that's it's kind of the only real estate where it's kind of priced daily so he says that they are interested in owning businesses with good pricing power and they'll be inflation are protected to a certain extent and on screen right now if you're on audio I've got on screen the companies that they own Universal Music isn't on that list but they do own it and it's Lowe's they held Hughes Corporation Canadian Pacific Railway restaurant Brands Domino's Pizza which they have sold over the summer and they talk about that it's just doesn't hasn't shown up yet but it will and Chipotle Mexican Grill and Netflix is on this list but it's a big zero because I've sold that and he talks about that later as well Eggman thinks there's a strong possibility it's a likely but it's not it's not set in stone it might or might not happen it is absolutely within the realm of possibility that there's a recession in 2023 so he was asked about New Stock ideas what they're doing what they've been doing in the market what they're doing and he mentioned the opportunistic macro ideas mostly let me get this ready he said he's made about 2.7 billion profit on interest rate related Hedges which is interesting but I'm guessing betting that the rates were going to go up and they did he also said like in 2020 when they made 2.6 billion on credit default swaps based around what he thought was going to happen in covert and they got that right too so they've been making some seriously big money on macro bets so this is where he starts talking about buying stocks now whether it's good or bad time because they haven't identified any opportunities to buy just yet but he said stocks are getting closer to where they'd like to buy they obviously had to have a watch list of things that they've analyzed over the years I know he does that and so when they hit the right price they're buying so he basically saying that they're getting close to it as you can see opportunities out there but they actually haven't bought anything just yet individual stocks they've just been banking those big macro bets and they've been paying off if you're watching on YouTube and you're getting value out of this episode please consider liking it would help the channel grow thanks they did sell Domino's Pizza over the summer but they haven't made any more individual stock moves they haven't bought or soldi said but he did say they're getting closer it sounds like they're getting closer to it they said nothing's got to a great price where they're really excited about it so they haven't touched anything they also did sell their Netflix of course that was huge news I'm gonna make another video about that he says it's obviously easier to make money in a rising market and a bull market which we had for years sort of rising tide lift saw boats and it's a different environment now so there's Rising rates but he does think that central banks will eventually get inflation under control so that's a good that'll be a good thing for the market environment it's the long-term inflation that's important for the stock market anything so that'll be should be moderated at least he hopes so it's interesting that even just 24 months ago two years ago the central banks were worried about deflation and so it's just kind of flipped as the environments totally flipped from where it was so what he says about buying stocks right now let me get this right the quote he says I think you can do well as a stock investor if you find really high quality companies and you buy them at attractive prices also I think today is a pretty good time it's a pretty good point of entry March 2020 was obviously a very good entry point I think this is sort of another moment so he goes on to say specifically I think this is sort of another moment where I don't know how well you're going to do over the next three or six months 12.
it's this highly uncertain world but over the next three four five ten years it's a pretty good place to be an investor or time to commit some Capital to equity markets so summarizing he thinks it's a pretty good time for long term only long-term investing if you're just looking for a quick trading he's never he's not into that in those macro calls he probably is a bit more short term but buying Quality Companies at good prices he looks to buff it he likes Warren Buffett he said that before so basically buying Quality Companies and prices are coming down so Quality Companies are good prices so you're hearing what Bill Ackman thinks about buying in this environment he thinks it's not a bad time what do you think do you think it's a good time you think it'll get cheaper are you waiting are you buying do you have none left to buy because you bought earlier let me know in the comments what your situation is and what you think of Bill eggman's he emphasizes the quality he says you've got to pick carefully and in detail he says you want to own the super high quality well capitalized dominant businesses that you know will be here in 30 years from now and that's what we own companies like Hilton and Universal Music and restaurant bands and so on so things that they're going to be around for decades they've got good pricing power and they're going to do well even in an inflation environment and hold for the long term so you know they don't even have 10 stocks so good quality companies a few of them committed to them for the long term so on screen right now I've got some of the companies that they own what some of the activity they've been making over past quarters of course we see Domino's Pizza this is uh through Guru Focus I'm using that so we can see that they have sold it it showed up as a real-time trade and Netflix they've sold out of that so there's the two that they've got rid of as I said I'm going to make another video specifically about it says when to sell stocks and talks in detail about Netflix so look for that soon also Chipotle Mexican Grill have reduced a bit Hilton but these are just just minor but they really haven't made any big moves except for selling dominoes and selling Netflix but he said that they do have cash and they're looking for good opportunities so it'd be interesting to see their next filing whether they've bought anything or sometime this year whether they're making another big buy they've certainly got the cash to do it having sold Netflix had a bit of a loss but he explains why and dominoes as well he obviously thinks it's a good time to buy so it will be interesting to see what his next move is there's more he says about bankstown in the current environment this is what he says that doesn't mean the Market's not going lower in the next three months right but I wouldn't commit all of your Capital today keep some in reserve a bit of the dollar cost averaging the S P 500 is down approaching 20 for the year okay this was a while ago this down more than that right now as I'm recording this and it wasn't highly overvalued at the beginning of the year he doesn't think so I think prices are fair to cheap that's what he's saying about the market today prices are fair to cheap and obviously it's gone down like about five percent since he said that the S P 500 so obviously he would think that they're cheaper now I would say to say that he hasn't been buying anything is not exactly correct because he does go on to say that this strategy of buying having 10 stocks with opportunistic Hedges however they have been doing buybacks on their own company it says I'm enjoying buying back 50k shares a day at today's prices I think it's a good deal it's the best deal I know in the markets so obviously he's talking his own book there about his own company but saying basically saying that his own chairs are cheap and they've been doing BuyBacks and that's one of the best deals around if you like this video enjoyed this video got value out of it please consider subscribing to the YouTube channel or if you're in your favorite podcast app please follow or subscribe and I'll see you next time
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