저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
하워드 막스는 AI 관련주가 버블일 수 있다고 단정하지 않고 자신이 AI를 충분히 알지 못한다고 유보한다. 역발상 투자는 컨센서스에 반대하는 것이지만 단순 반대 베팅이 아니라 깊은 분석이 필요하다고 강조한다. 현재 시장은 극단적 낙관이나 비관이 아닌 '중간 사이클(moderate)' 수준으로 본다. 중국 시장은 저평가 가능성이 있으나 확신은 없다고 말한다. 2020년 전후와 2021년 투기 열풍을 언급하며 시장 온도 측정의 중요성을 강조한다. 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 단기 예측은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
have a look at more of what super investor Howard Marx has been saying recently he talks about a bubble he was asked if he sees a bubble in the market so he talks about that he talks about being contrarian when it's a good time to be contrarian and there's better times than others and he also the market cycle and he's written a book about that so let's see what he's got to say but do you see any bubbles within the market now on the positive side there are people who believe that uh that the AI stocks for example uh are are in a bubble and most bubbles do surround something that's new and this one does and something that uh everybody's very impressed by um I don't know enough about AI to know if this is excessive or or Justified but but you know you would look at the things that are most exciting uh to most people and and largely at the things that are new now so that is Tex some of the boxes there he doesn't come out and say that it's a bubble says he doesn't know enough about it he's very guarded he doesn't sort of predict and pick Bubbles and he's only done it a few times but he is obviously guarded about what he's saying there what about the talks about the downside next does he see anything you know there if there's a bubble something that's exuberant inflated what's on the downside because that's what he's been interested in as a value investor oh in terms of excesses on the downside you would have to wonder about China I mean China has been marked down by everybody many people describe it as uninvestable um uninvestable and he's talked about that before about how that his ears prick up when he hears that that's when he gets interested has declined a lot that Chinese market is it too cheap is it well I I again I don't know I I suspect that it may be but I I don't know enough about it uh to uh you know to uh make a statement and and one of the rules as you know is that it's okay to have an opinion on these subjects it's just not okay to bet the client's money yeah well they have had bets in China you can see from on data Roma for instance we can see the oak tree portfolio of what they've been buying and in q1 they did buy some things in China so he's saying he's not sure here but they definitely have some investments in China there so not sure about the AO bubble but definitely going a little bit into China and in other markets that have been very cheap in South America and so forth now he talks more about Bank andaran let's listen to what he says absolutely which brings us to the whole contrarian investing field so how important is it to be contrarian in finance well I think it's it's essential uh contrarianism merely means uh betting against the consensus yeah in every on every subject there's a consensus there's what most people believe is is the case now that comes to mind just Buton there that the consensus with say inidia and I've made videos about this too recently 90% of Wall Street analysts have a High rating on Nidia right now even at the valuation that it is so this is recently this is not even a few months ago this is right now um when the consensus is too strong and there's too much optimism that the consensus outcome will uh uh apply maybe the odds for betting on the improbable outcome are so high that it's a compelling bet um the consensus if you take that into the investment markets the uh the knowledge consensus is already embodied in the price of every asset maybe you can find times when you think the consensus is wrong and uh you can do better by betting against it um usually because the payoff is so high for doing the thing that is considered unlikely now I want to stress that I don't think it's a good idea to routinely say well what is the consensus think let's do the opposite the process has to be much uh deeper than that you have to say what does the consensus think what do I think what's wrong with the consensus is thinking why did they think that way what could make the error of their ways exposed so it's it's it's a very deep question but uh you you don't usually make much money by betting on the thing that everybody else loves the big money is made by betting on the things they hate which as a result are cheap if you're right does that's interesting question what he said there an interesting statement you don't make much money Bing against the consensus because as we know if you short things and there's exuberance so if we think of if you've been betting against Nidia been shorting in video or even Teslas you know some well-known investors did short Tesla while it was going up it's you don't know when the top is it's really hard and you can kind of lose infinite amount of money so it's tough to do so I see what he's saying there it's better to find things that are unloved that are undervalued and look for that so look away from the crowd look away away from for the from the consensus so if you're getting value out of this video so far please and if you're new here do consider subscribing to get more of this kind of content in the future now we're going to see what how Mark says more about being contrarian in a frothy Market yeah do you think it's easier to be contrarian when markets are really frothy and uh bullish or when they are fearful that's a great question um I think it's easier when the markets are frothy because but froth is difficult to measure right well it is but and and difficult to measure in terms he wasn't willing to say whether the AI was in a bubble or not it definitely could be considered frothy but frothy and a bubble are different things yeah you know I I use a certain uh barometer nothing uh tangent people but I you know I spend a lot of time trying what I call take the temperature of the market and get a sense for whether other people are operating out of extreme optimism or extreme pessimism how' you so he's written a book about this mastering the market cycle I'll put a link to that in the description really good book where he talks about this taking the temperature of the market he gives some examples how to do that and I found it really useful when I read it I think I read it around 2020 sometime in 2020 when we're leading into that you know 2020 any1 where where there was some some bubble I consider it in you know merging Tex dos EVS all that sort of thing and it was really useful then and to see what he meant by what he said in that book how do you do it what does a parameter look like uh I just look at what opinions are being expressed how uniformly are they held how strongly are they held how self-satisfied are the people who are holding them uh you know and you get into for example a bubble like the the uh internet bubble uh of 2000 and uh you know the people who are holding those opinions and making the most money are doing it for this silliest of reasons their justifications just don't hold and so hopefully you can see through that and and get off the train uh before they ride it off the off the cliff and the Howard marks uh baram meter just now well moderate um I mean in fact uh I I wrote in one of my moderate so he thinks he's talking about the overall Market here you know not just sector of the market so kind of moderate in terms of the cycle that um people say that they this is they're the most uncertain they've ever been in my book that's healthy you should be uncertain when you're certain that's dangerous um and yes so he's been through many cycles many Market Cycles here and so he thinks it's kind of moderate at the moment not in a bubble but the you know sectors can bubbles can be in sectors they can be in certain in individual stocks or they can be in the overall Market but he's just he's not seeing exuberance all over the market all all the the whole Market as he sees it it's sort of moderate mid cycle perhaps he's saying there so he's got more to say about this let's see and uh I I am not highly data driven compared to other people but rather I'm driven by this idea of figuring out where we stand in the cycle taking the temperature of the market uh I put out a a memo in the roughly July of 23 called taking the temperature and I say that there were as as I mentioned with my conversation with Andrew there were five times in my career that I took uh contrarian stands on the market they were essentially not data driven for example so five times that's only like once every 10 years exle I was very concerned about uh the uh conditions heading into what turned out to be the global financial crisis now it was caused by the housing bubble and especially the subprime mortgages and mortgage back Securities I had no idea about subprime I didn't know it existed did I didn't know much about mortgage back Securities I only knew that the markets were acting in a Carefree nonrisk conscious manner which to me is the most dangerous thing okay so he didn't see during the financial crisis he didn't see like Michael Barry did about you know mortgage back Securities and all that stuff he didn't see that but he knew something was up and he did you know take a step back and give a warning there and the dot bubble there have been these excessive times when he has given a warning and at the moment he's not giving that warning so that's interesting to see what do you think what do you think is going on in the Market at the moment do you agree with them that we're kind of midcycle it's moderate at the moment there's some excesses there but it's not you know as we've seen at some other times even 2021 with all the specs and he did talk about that back then what do you think let me know in the comments now I do we do talk about this kind of thing more on patreon here this is the patreon the out of value patreon if you I do weekly investing updates as you'll see there once a week I talk about things that I don't talk anywhere else and also started this this uh investing education the sort of secret Source on investing for stock analysis I've done two videos there so far the intro to to Rose RC was the first one it was kind of it's a number zero to look at things when we first look at stocks and then starting off right at the beginning and approaches talk about approaches to invest in and then I'll get more into it so if you're interested in that I'll put a link to that is tch next if you're watching this on YouTube and I'll put a link to a subscription as well on whichever platform you're doing that and I'll see you in the next one
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