Super Investor Bill Ackman: How To Avoid Being A Lemming Investor

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빌 애크먼은 단기 변동성에 흔들리지 않으려면 빚을 내지 말고 5년 이상 쓸 필요가 없는 돈으로 투자해야 하며, 사업을 이해하고 확신을 가진 소수(약 10~12개) 단순한 우량기업에 집중하라고 강조한다. 감정 통제는 타고나는 게 아니라 학습으로 얻어진다는 주장. 대부분의 뮤추얼펀드는 수수료 대비 성과가 낮아 지수펀드가 낫다는 견해. 영상 속 기업 언급(Universal Music, Chipotle 등)은 예시 수준이며 가격 방향 예측은 없음.

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01. hi team value JJ here welcome back today we're going to look at more of what Bill Amman said about investing this is about the psychology of investing this time how really important it is and the aspects of that last time he was talking about the process of investing and the previous video I put a link in the description to that if you haven't seen that but this one the all important psychology let's see what he's got to say some big losses some big wins so it's been a roller coaster so in terms of temperament psychologically how do you not let that break you how do you maintain a calm uh demeanor and avoid running with the Lemmings I think it's something you kind of learn over time uh a key success factor is you want to have enough money in the bank that you're going to survive uh you know regardless of what's going on with volatility and markets you know people who uh one you shouldn't borrow money so if you borrow money you own stocks on margin Market are going down and you have your livelihood at risk it's very difficult to be rational so key is getting yourself to a place where you're financially secure you're not going to lose your house right that's a kind of a key thing good advice from Bill egman there I think about being secure meaning that when you're investing money you have to do it for over the long term say that you don't need it for 5 years otherwise you get anxious and if you're borrowing money and you can't afford to lose it and the market goes against you you know it's hard to be rational that makes sense that it seems very hard to be rational when you're anxious about losing money and you might make some stupid decisions and then also doing your homework you know stock prices stocks can trade at any price in the short term and if you know what a business is worth and you understand the management you know it extremely well it's not nearly as uh it doesn't bother you when a stock price goes down or it has much less impact on you because you know you know again as uh Mr Graham said you know the short-term the market is a voting machine you have a bunch of lemmings voting One Direction that's concerning but if it's a great business doesn't have a lot of debt and people going to just listen to more music next year than this year you know you're going to do well uh so it's a bit some combination of being personally secure and also just knowing what you own uh and over time you build uh uh calluses I would say he's talking about music there people listening to music more next year than they are this year he an investment in Universal Music so that's what he's talking about a specific investment there but you know knowing what you own understanding the company if the market goes against you and this voting machine short-term voting machine long-term weighing machine so as he said stocks can go anywhere in the short term if it goes down 50% you to understand the company and know what the company's worth and then it won't bother you so much I think it will bother you Charlie manga said you have to withstand a 50% decline in stocks in the short term if you can't do that you have no business investing in stocks that's what he said and that's what Bill amman's talking about here when it can go down they can go anywhere in the short term so you have to be have conviction in what you own so psychologically just as a human being is there some is it as simple as just being financially secure uh is there some just human qualities that you have to be born with Slash develop I think so I think uh now I'm a pretty emotional person I would say or I feel pretty strong emotions but not in investing I'm remarkably immune to kind of volatility and that's a big advantage and it took some time for me to develop that so you weren't born with that you think no so being emotional you want to respond to volatility yeah and you just it's a bit again I you can learn a lot from other people's experience it's one of the the few businesses where you can learn an enormous amount by reading about other periods in history uh you know watch you know following Buffett's career the mistakes he made I find it fascinating what he said there about learning the temperament cuz a lot of people don't say that he say they say that you're either born with it to be able to withstand volatility or you're not but he's saying that's not like that something he learned over time you know when a stock loses say 30% after youve bought it to not be bothered by that if you understand what you're buying cuz Buffett says that the intellectual it's only part of it it's mainly temperament being able to withstand it and what Bill Amman is saying here is that you can learn that or he had to learn that CU his personality is definitely you know as he said he gets quite emotional you can see on Twitter or X he does get emotional about topics but he says he doesn't investing but that's something that he's learned now if you're getting value out of this bill Amman it really does help and if you're not subscribed already do consider consider doing that as well financially secure is something you I believe also recommend for even just everyday investors is there some general advice from the things you've been talking about that applies to Everyday investors sure so never invest money you can't afford to lose where it would if you lost this this money and you know you lose your house Etc so having being in a place where uh you're investing money that you don't care about the price in the short term you it's money for your retirement and you take a really long-term view so when he said be financially secure doesn't mean completely secure having enough money for retirement he's just talking long term so no not borrowing money or not investing money that you can't afford to lose over the next few years say five years I think that's key uh never investing will you borrow money against your securities you know the the markets offer you the opportunity to leverage your investment and and in most worlds you'll be okay except if you know there's a financial crisis or you know a nuclear device gets detonated God forbid somewhere in the world or a pandemic or many of the other things that have happened Black Swan events can come out of the blue and so if you're if you're leveraged then you can get really into trouble really quickly or there's a unexpected war or you know someone kills a leader unexpectedly you know things happen that can change the course of history and markets react very NE ly to those kinds of events and you can own the greatest business in the world trading for $100 a share and next moment it could be 50 so as long as you don't borrow against Securities you own really high quality businesses and it's not money that you need in the short term uh then you can you can actually be thoughtful about it and that is a huge Advantage the vast majority of investors it seems tend to be the ones that panic and the downturns get overrated and when markets are doing well this is how value investors have traditionally made money in people like Buffett who just sit there waiting a patient when markets plummet or a St plummets 50% they go in and scoop it up while everybody else many other investors are selling it's even when people say that they know what to do when things go down but when it comes to it they they do the opposite because it's this temperament the psychological thing of knowing what to do but then when it comes to doing it actually doing it so be able to think long term and be sufficiently financially secure cure such that you can afford to think long term yeah that Buffett is the ultimate long-term thinker and just the decisions he makes uh the consistency of the decisions he's made over time and fitting into that sort of long-term framework is a very uh very educational let's put it that way for the for learning about this business what do you think about mutual funds that for everyday investors that diversify across a larger number of companies I think there are very few mutual funds uh there thousands and thousands of mutual funds they're very few that earn their keep in terms of the fees they charge uh they tend to be too Diversified too shortterm and you're often much better off just buying an an index fund and many of them perform they look if you look carefully at their portfolios they're not so different from the underlying index itself and you tend to pay a much higher fee uh now all of that being said there's some very talented mutual fund managers a guy named will Dan off at Fidelity had a great record over a long period of time you the famous Peter Lynch uh Ron Baron another great long-term growth stock investor so there's some great uh mutual funds but I put them in the handful versus the thousands and if you're in you know the thousands i' I'd rather someone bought just an index one basically this is something that Warren buffer said too he think that people who don't do stock analysis who don't want to who aren't good at it whatever the case may be should invest in an S&P 500 fund he said that many times and he's talking about the very few fund managers here people like Peter Lynch did very well but there's so few and far between who've got enough of a return minus fees to actually do well for investors you know what Bill amman's talking about here is some mutual funds have a a huge number of stocks that really just like the index and then you have to pay fees on that and they might not get a good return he's talking about the vast majority and I think it's over 90% well over 90% don't beat the market return over time yeah index funds but what uh what would be the leap for an everyday investor to go to investing in a small number of companies like two three four five companies I even recommend for individual investors to invest in you know a dozen companies you don't get that much more benefit of diversification going from a dozen to 25 or even 5050 you know most of the benefits of verification come in the first you know call it 10 or 12 uh and if you're investing in businesses that don't have a lot of debt they're businesses that you can understand yourself you understand you know actually individual investors did a much better job analyzing Tesla than the so-called professional investors or analysts the vast majority of them so if it's a business you understand you if you bought a Tesla you understand the product and its appeal to Consumers you know it's a good place to start when you're analyzing a company this is something that Peter Lynch has said too starting with things that you know brands that you know things that you use every day you know starting with things that we have on our phones here the apps you know Apple's done very well over time Google there are things around us brands that we use all the day starting with things that you actually know and understand but what he's also saying here about the number of companies I mean I agree with this I try to keep under 15 I do have fewer than 15 stocks I'd like to get down to 10 10 long-term Compounders over time and Bill Amman here has as he says he usually has well under 10 but he's very experienced very focused now when you do make mistakes the big mistakes with a few stocks they can it can really hurt it's interesting what he's saying here you get enough diversity with 12 stocks with a dozen stocks depending on what they are of course some companies are are diverse within them if their conglomerates or burk your haway is very Diversified by itself and there are other companies like that even Tesla has a number of you know different businesses inside it so does Amazon but some companies are just focused on one thing so I would invest in things you can understand that's kind of a key uh you know you like Chipotle you you understand why they're successful you can you go there every week and you can monitor you know there anything changing you how these new uh kind of uh how's chicken alpastor is that is that a good upgrade from the basic chicken you know the drink offerings improving are the stores clean I think you should invest in companies you really understand simple businesses where you can predict with a high degree of confidence what it's going to look like over time and if you do that and a not particularly concentrated fashion and you don't borrow money against your securities you probably do much better than your typical mutual fund simple businesses he likes these restaurants fast food restaurants and chipotle has been the big one he said he invested in it when it went down about 50% when they had that food heal the health scare he said that they've done very well out of these fast food chains simple businesses easy to understand although to scale them up to the thousands of restaurants is is a difficult thing for the business but his point is that to understand the business if it's something really complicated some high-tech thing that you don't understand then you shouldn't invest in it it's just you have to understand the business and as he said you know it's possible for retail investors to do as well or better than mutual funds or fund managers and have the right psychology for it that right temperament in place which can be learned now as I said I do agree with Bill Amman about having a dozen or fewer stocks being that focused over time any more than that it becomes a bit unwieldy it's a bit hard to understand more than that or to follow and track that many over time and I do talk about this on the art of value patreon you know how many stocks in the process that I go through so this is part of the super investor series that I've been doing at the moment and I'm going to put a link here to the previous episode I mentioned about Bill Amman where he talked about his process of investing