저자: JJ · 외국인
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AI 버블 우려를 다룬 영상. OpenAI는 매출 130억 달러 대비 1.4조 달러 지출 약정으로 비판받으며, 샘 올트먼의 방어적 발언이 화제가 됨. 마이클 버리가 엔비디아·팔란티어에 약 10억 달러 규모 풋(하락) 베팅을 했다는 보도 소개. 팔란티어 CEO 알렉스 카프의 공매도 세력 비판과 PER 439 등 고평가 언급. 진행자는 투자 조언이 아니라며 버블 가능성을 제기하나 방향을 단정하지 않음. Meta의 AI 지출 우려로 주가 급락 사례도 언급.
다듬은 글
How, you know, how can a company with 13 billion in revenues make 1.4 trillion of spend commitments? Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. I just enough. Most analysts, you know, think that this stock is overpriced. You have people like Michael Bur out there shorting it. When I hear short sellers attacking and calling trying to call the AI revolution into question, it just is super triggering.
Hi everyone, JJ here. Welcome back. Well, today we're going to look at a couple of stories that I think are pretty funny and related to the AI bubble that's developing. Yes, I do think it's that. It's not financial advice in any way, just what I'm observing and from experience. I did live through the.com bubble and I do think this is kind of developing in a similar way.
So, the two stories that I want to talk about today is this one here. Sam Alolman loses his call when asked about Open AI's minuscule revenue and there's a funny video associated with that. we can see his crash out in real time which is pretty funny and I'll talk about that and how it does relate to past some past events that were similar in a way during some difficult times for the stock market let's say and this one that is related also the big short guy just bet $1 billion at the AI bubble pops so this is Michael Bur and if you've seen the big short movie.
He was in that. He was famous for that. And now he's making a big bet against a couple of companies in the AI sector. One being Nvidia and the other one Palunteer. So we'll look at that story. And it has to be said he has been wrong on a few things in the past few years. He did pick the kind of bubble that happened in 2021 or the elevated market.
He doesn't quite get the timing right. Shorting the market is difficult or shorting stocks. Warren Buffett says that. And this is a related story where the CEO of Palanteer, Alex Carb, had a similar kind of crash out talking about Michael Bur's short. He did not like it. So, let's get into these stories.
First, Sam Olman. Open AI is planning to spend an exorbitant amount of money building an AI infrastructure as it continues trying to achieve artificial general intelligence through sheer computational scale. So that's building AI data centers. You know that's the compute the huge amount of compute. There are literally hundreds of billions, trillions at this point going into this this race that's developing to develop AGI, the artificial general intelligence, where AI will supposedly be more intelligent, not just than some humans, but all humans put together.
So this is the narrative that's been happening for quite some time now. So that's why so much money's been thrown at it. Now, this is the tweet associated with it. And there's a video clip here. Apparently, if you ask Sam Alman, how his $13 billion money losing for profit, not for profit, can support $1.4 trillion of spend commitments.
He gets very defensive and starts to attack non-existent short sellers. I cannot wait for Open AI to be a public company. Of course, it's a private company, but it does have a valuation that people in the sector know about. And that valuation is getting way up there despite the really meager revenue and the expectations.
Does this remind you of the dot bubble? It certainly does to me. Anyway, let's see this video and I will talk about it afterwards. It's just short. is how, you know, how can a company with 13 billion in revenues make 1.4 trillion of spend commitments, you know, and and and you've heard the criticism.
First of all, we're doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. I just enough like, you know, people are I I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. I don't I don't think you including myself. Including myself.
people. This guy's a supporter, an investor. He's not against him at all. So losing it like this is pretty funny. And that's the CEO of Microsoft at the bottom who is invested in open AI. Talk about that in a minute. So if something goes wrong, I think Microsoft would be involved. But I'll talk about that in a second.
Who talk with a lot of like breathless concern about our comput stuff or whatever that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we we could sell you know your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter whatever about this very quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow steeply.
Revenue is growing steeply. We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to grow grow and that not only will Chhatabt keep growing but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing that AI that can automate science will create huge value.
So, you know, there are not many times that I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous OpenAI is about to go out of business and, you know, whatever. I would love to tell them they could just short the stock and I would love to see them get burned on that.
Um, but you know, I we carefully plan, we understand where the technology, where the capability is going to grow, go and and how the products we can build around that and the revenue we can generate. we might screw it up. Like this is the bet that we're making and we're taking a risk along with that.
Now, I just want to say you might have noticed the logo on screen, the new logo, the John Johnston Lounge. If you're listening, there's a new logo there. I haven't changed the name yet of the show. I'm going to change it next week. I'm going to give a week's notice. I'm looking forward to it starting next week.
I've got quite a few thoughts on this. So, a lot of people do not like Sam Oldman. I mean, his vocal fry is a bit annoying, too. I don't know if that's an affectation or he's he just does that, but he is not really liked out there in the public. Sort of he's a nemesis of Elon Musk, but people really don't like either of them.
A lot of people, but some people do in the tech community, they do. A lot of people love Elon Musk. And I think what Samman really wants, I think what he needs, what he wants is for Open AI to eventually go public. They'll talk about them doing that soon. I mean the the the market is inflated for AI.
I think it's definitely gone up and up and up. So that's tends to be a time when companies do go public where they sell shares to the public at a really inflated rate. That's what happened during the dotcom bubble when there was next to no revenue for a lot of those companies there. Open AAI does have revenue, but it's getting way out of whack compared to the, you know, the commitments that they've made.
And so Sam Alman says this is this race to get to AGI, artificial general intelligence. That's really their aim. So if that doesn't happen, if this the expectations suddenly go down for whatever reason, things could go badly and Microsoft does have a lot of commitment, a lot of working with Open AI.
So say if Open AI did get into real trouble, like during the com bubble, valuations went way down, Microsoft was involved. I'm sure the Microsoft valuation would go down, but they're just such a massive company with massive revenue. Don't think it would particularly hurt Microsoft long-term. And what might happen?
I think this is just speculation. I don't know if that did happen. Microsoft could go in and really mop up, sweep up Open AI or, you know, they they do the data centers are are involved with Microsoft anyway. So that if they could just incorporate open AI and at that point I think it would be really between Google Google Gemini AI which I do use.
It's good and it's getting better and better. I pay for the pro version of that. So it would be Microsoft versus Google to in a big way. And we see Sam Hot being super defensive here. And one thing that I wanted to mention was Enron. And I'm not saying that Open AI is Enron at all. I'm just saying what happened there with one of the the big crash outs.
The CEO crashed out. The beginning of the downfall there was on an earnings call when the CEO called one of the analysts who were asking difficult questions about the financials or really not that difficult. Called him an a-hole and that was kind of shocking back then when that happened. That was kind of the beginning of the end.
It was kind of shocking and that was the first sign of real public trouble. And so the crashes like this are not going to say a red flag, but definitely orange yellow flags going up with stuff like this when CEOs are getting pretty defensive about it. And so he was talking about shorting the stock. So if it goes public and it's been talked about that it could be around a trillion dollar valuation.
So, a company going public and getting a trillion dollar valuation in the public markets would be absolutely incredible considering the revenue. And he he did sort of misspeak there. He said we're going to have steeply climbing revenue or we already have. So, he you know that's more defensive there.
And as I said, the guy asking questions here is an investor and he's very supportive and he was sort of taken aback by what Sam Alman said here that he was sort of surprised that he was so defensive and he I think he has said that it's a bubble. He's admitted that it's a bubble. Sam Alman there been a number of people I've seen Peter Teal who was an early investor in Facebook and co-founder of Palunteer which we'll get to in a second.
He thinks it's a bubble. Well, he said it's a very it feels very 1999ish and that was a while ago. That was months ago at the All-In Summit. Other people have too. Jeff Bezos thinks it's an infrastructure bubble, an AI infrastructure bubble, but he said that that isn't necessarily bad and you could look at it that way.
The.com bubble was a bubble, but it worked out the way that it was intended in the end, including I mean the internet, everything that I'm doing here on the internet, you know, video on the internet on demand, we had Netflix, we've got Google, we got big Amazon, but there were a lot of years if somebody had invested during the com bubble near the end there to get the money back on the investment would have taken years and years.
I think Microsoft was valued by the market around $600 billion back then which seems ridiculously high and then it went down and it took a more than a decade to get back to where it was. So stuff like that can happen. I'm not predicting anything but I as I said I do think that it is turning into a bubble and it's getting bigger and bigger by the week.
So, this other story that's related, the big short guy, that's Michael Bur just bet $1 billion that the AI bubble pops. And as I said, most people have seen the big short movie. So, they will remember him in there where he did have a big short on the market and it took a long time to pay off. Some of his investors pulled out and then it paid off big.
So they say here, Michael Barry, who famously shorted the US housing market before its collapse in 2008, has bet over 1 billion that the share prices of AI chip maker Nvidia and software company Palanteer will fall, making a similar play. In other words, on the prediction that the AI industry will collapse.
According to the Securities and Exchange Commission, his fund bought 187.6 6 million inputs on Nvidia and 912 million inputs on Palunteer. So, if it pays off, it's going to be a big payoff. And what's happening here is that the CEO of Palanteer was asked about this. We're going to have a look at that video and go through that in a minute.
So, Barry Similly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards if you don't know. So, this didn't play out for a while. He had to wait against the US mortgage market that was anticipating its collapse. His fund rose a whopping 489% when the market did subsequently fall apart in 2008. And that's all played out in the movie.
If you've seen that, you might remember that where he was starting to freak out. Maybe I'm wrong, but he was right. And it just took a while to play out, but it paid off big. And so people know this and here I want to get to this. Alex Karp who's the CEO of Palunteer obviously he was asked about this Michael Bur's bet and was freaking out about it frankly he kind of lost it more so than Samman.
I mean, as somebody said in a social media comment today, to me, I mean, Alex car wears his heart on his sleeve is the way that they put it, and he does. And he has not been kind to short sellers. He hates them. Elon Musk has also hated short sellers in the past. And it's kind of again an orange flag when CEOs do this.
Other CEOs will just ignore short sellers completely. Jeff Bezos hasn't said much about short sellers. And so when CEOs do this, it's like, why are you so concerned about short sellers? If the company's doing well, if there's no problem, what do you care about it? And the fact is that the Palunteer valuation is pretty high.
Look at this. Just one metric, the P ratio is 439. And a lot of people say when the market's elevated and we've got high growth tech stocks, which Palanteer is, that PE ratio doesn't really matter anymore. But the fact is that's that's still very high even for a high PE. And we've got Nvidia, which is actually lower, 55.
I mean, they've got a lot of revenue coming in. And it's basically from these big companies, the Mag 7 companies that are buying the chips from them. And so that's a lower P ratio and also Meta is 28. And so they're one of the companies buying from Nvidia. But anyway, let's see what Alex Karp had to say.
It's quite entertaining and I'll comment on it. Listen to this. But you know, I was listening to the call yesterday and I wanted to just for those who didn't get an opportunity to hear it. I think you made some fascinating points about why you think this company and maybe even yourself are so misunderstood.
Um, well, there are lots of easy ways to misunderstand me. I misunderstand myself and you know, it's not like the super conventional playbook thing. Look, we're an anti-playbook company. Okay. So, he actually gets into politics a bit here, which I'll comment on. He says he's a progressive, which is very questionable at this point, but anyway, I'll let him talk.
If you want to do the personal version, I'm like this uh dyslexic formerly and I believe currently still left of center who actually sticks up for progressive values which triggers, you know, TDS uh loving people because I think the Democrats aren't no longer progressive. And then okay, so that's not controversial that the that the Democrats are no longer progressive than the the mainstream, but he does talk about the New York City mayoral election which has just been and he does not like that.
So one of the big criticisms which I have talked about before they Palanteer does work with the Israeli government and the conflict that they've been having there and so he's had a lot of criticism for that. He's very proud to do that kind of work. And so to say that he has kind of progressive values or lefty values is pretty questionable at this point considering some of the things that Palante has been doing this this digital surveillance working with the government.
I mean there are so many things that that just sort of cry out that he is not what he professes to be anyway. The company is built in a truly super generous unique way which would only be possible in America and actually explodes every assump assumption of how an expert would build a software business.
The more you actually know about building software, the more odd, unique and inexplicable our rise in success and I would say domination on the enterprise software battlefield looks and is. Um and then I would say one of my main issues is Palanteer because we were anti we called uh we called a lot of things that are kind of establishment views that often are uh viewed as kind of being super woke into question in every single assumption of Palunteer.
The people who piled in uh to Palunteer were people investing their own money often people who are not in the investor class non-experts and even till today the experts sit on the sideline and say hey this can't be true while the average American who invested in Palanteer and for the first time maybe arguably in since World War II uh average Americans got venture returns investing in Palunteer.
Okay. So he has a retail investor army. A lot of people like him. a lot of people on YouTube. There's a there's a few YouTube channels that have championed Palanteer. And I'm not saying that the company isn't doing well. It clearly is, but everybody knows that and the valuation has gone up and up. And he's about to talk about how much he hates the short sellers here, which again bit of an orange flag I would say about CEOs being so concerned about that.
And it relates to open AI as well where I think Sam Alman does really want to go public because you know these stocks these companies that have retail investor army supporting them. We have we definitely have Tesla, we have Palunteer and Open AI. I think Sam would really like that kind of helps and it helps the valuation but there's a a kind of high percentage of retail investors in there.
I mean, arguably I think that Tesla's become a meme stock at this point, largely because of that retail army with supporters. The levitation of the stock kind of defies the revenue because it's all about the future, bro. But I've talked so much about that in other videos. Let's get back to Alex Carb on the short sellers.
They're going to ask him about it in a second. So you have this massive divide uh between the average person who evaluated themselves and the expert class that still was working on assumptions that have historically not been true that obviously if you look at the earnings if you actually look at we grew the company uh I mean I go through if you want to go through the numbers but extraordinary results and then the expert classes weak need and the retail people are all in.
So, okay. So, I'm not going to go through the numbers here. This is not about that. Let's just say the company is doing well. It is. It's the question of the market valuation and he really doesn't like the short sellers. But in fairness, but that's what I want to ask you about in terms of the mis there because there is a misunderstanding.
Clearly, you know, you look at the analysts, most analysts, you know, think that this stock is overpriced. You have people like Michael Bur out there shorting it. Everybody who's shorted this stock thus far has been on the losing end of it. And I'm trying to understand just if you look at sort of the growth trajectory, the sales, how much of the sales frankly I think actually even coming there was a huge part coming from even existing customers and just what the scale of this thing ultimately looks like in your mind.
Okay, there are two parts. You know, of course, when I hear short sellers attacking uh what I believe is clearly the most important software company in America and therefore in the world in terms of our impact simply to make money and calling trying to call the AI revolution into question where we have these this anomalous numbers 114, rule of 40, etc.
It just is super triggering because these people they could pick on any company in the world. They have to pick on the one that actually helps people that actually has made money for the average person. that that is actually supporting our war fighters. Why do they have to go after us? And I'll tell you what though, it's crazy motivating because I'll tell you why the short sellers are constantly getting screwed by Palanteer because every time they short us, we just are like tripling down on getting the better numbers and part honestly to make them poorer.
Okay. So, he really doesn't like it and referring to Michael Barry and he hopes that short sellers don't make money or lose money. You can lose a lot of money in a short. I don't go short on anything because you can lose a lot of money. I think it's better just to stay long on things that you really really believe that the company's going to get better.
And Palanteer, as I said, clearly is doing well. And I think Michael Bur would say that. He's not saying that it's a fraud or anything like that. It's just that it's way overvalued, I would say. Although Michael Bur hasn't actually said he doesn't say much about it, but it's it's about the actions, right?
So, we have another CEO being super defensive as involved in the AI sector where valuations are looking pretty stretched. I think it's not investment advice and I can't tell what's going to happen. Things can always go on and on and on. In fact, the market can often go on and in bubble situations way more than people think they would.
There's this famous story long ago. Isaac Newton, who is, you know, one of the best minds in the world. Most intelligent people can still be fooled by FOMO. He made money in the South Sea Company bubble. If you read about that, it's pretty extraordinary. These things tend to be, you know, rhyme over history.
But that was massive. And he made a lot of money. He made really his fortune out of that. And he sold out at a good time as the bubble went up. But people that he knew made more money, kept in making more money and he got sucked back into the market and it just happened to be near the peak and he lost his fortune.
That's the way the story goes and this kind of happens in every bubble. But it's very hard to stay out of it when your neighbors, your friends are making so much money and then it can come crashing down very quickly. But I'm not saying that's what's going to happen, but in bubbles that's what tends to happen.
You can't time these things, but I'm saying that things are looking pretty elevated. But as I said, these things can go on for years if you were to look at the dotcom bubble even 1998 and it went on till early 2000. So that's what can happen. I mean, there are other stories about this too. Look at this.
Meta stock plummets as investors horrified at how much Zuckerberg is spending on misfired AI. So these questions starting to be asked. Meta will be spending between 70 and 72 billion on AI this year. So when these questions start being asked and as I said in the past when CEOs start to get defensive and crash out in interviews, it's sort of a start of a warning sign.
I don't know. But it's going to be very entertaining. I'm going to keep making some videos about this. It's something that I'm interested in. Market bubbles. I've read quite a few books about market bubbles over time. have experienced the dotcom bubble and in 2021 when this text got very elevated and that's when chat GBT was invented in late 2022 and the market took off again and here we are now.
What do you think about this? I really want to know what you think about this. Do you think there's an AI bubble going on? How long do you think it will go on for? We're just speculating here. We don't know. You may not think there's a bubble at all. You think that they're going to get to AGI and that will actually accelerate the world economy and it's going to be fantastic and we won't have this.com bubble like crash at all.
I don't know what's going to happen. What do you think? Let me know. And right below me here, I'm going to put a related video. Do go and see that now if you want to. And do join the channel as a member if you want to. That's an option. You get early access to videos usually about 7 hours earlier. And also priority reply to comments on YouTube.
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