저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 Fed 금리인하 가능성과 6월 CPI 둔화 기대를 근거로 러셀2000 소형주가 여름까지 약 40% 급등할 수 있다고 주장한다. 소형주는 지난 몇 년간 S&P500·나스닥에 크게 뒤처져 있었고, 반등 시 상승 여력이 크다는 논리다. 반면 패널 Brian Levit은 성장 둔화와 메가캡 위주 장세를 이유로 소형주 강세에 회의적이다. 디플레이션 기대와 내구재 경기 침체가 인플레이션을 더 끌어내릴 것이라는 전망도 함께 제시된다.
다듬은 글
hi stock investors JJ here welcome back well today we're going to look at the internet's favorite perm bable fun struts Tom Lee who says that he thinks that Russell 2000 small cap index is going to Rocket 40% by the end of the summer the summer of small caps he says is he going to be right it's already started he has had a prediction for this year of 50% rise for the Russell it hasn't done much in previous years it didn't do much in the first half but it has had a LIF and let's so let's see what Tom Lee's got to say now next guest does say that this Friday's inflation data will likely shift the odds higher of a July and September rate cut supporting the summer of small caps as he said joining us here Post 9 is Tom Lee fun strad Global advisers head of research and a CNBC contributor Tom it's great to have you great to see um you want to start with what the the political news or the economic news what's more important to you do you think uh you know in the short term it's the political news uh but really in the longer term especially into year end it's actually the economic news I'd agree with that it's always the economic news that's more important in the long term now I did do a video on my other channel stock today with JJ about the political news it's been a tumultuous week hasn't it a wild week the assassination attempt on Trump then the so-called Trump trade after he got a boost and popularity and then Biden stepping aside and we're going to have to see who the Democratic candidate date is probably Cal Harris but we just don't know and so the economic news in the long term has definitely has a more of effect on the market which Administration is going to affect that more we just don't know yet but let's see what Tom Lee has to say about small caps here what's the bull case explain why well in the short term markets are very sensitive to especially the sector level depending on whether it's a Republican or Democratic taking the White House in November and then especially all the uh Congressional elections and state elections so I I think that's what you're you saw last week is as shifts as probability shifted towards Trump small caps Industrials financials rally and you're sticking with that call which is for what 40% over 10 weeks yeah I I the the overlap is small caps are very sensitive to a Fed cut and really the probability of a Fed cut you know that that it's finally happening and I think it's going to look like the October to December 2023 rally which was almost 30% this one should be bigger because of the the amount of short positioning and and the amount of oversold in the Russell so yeah okay so that's a lot in a short time but the small caps can rocket this much as I said they haven't done much if you look at the Russell 2000 Index over previous years many years it hasn't really hasn't kept pace with the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ is it time for them to catch up is it time to converge I've made previous videos about this last week talked about this let's see what tomy's got to say he did say that there that it's based on interest rates apart from the political situation interest rates you know it looks like there's going to be one cut and that's going to affect it and that did the small caps did take off after that news the CPI came in softer CPI inflation came in softer the the uh looking to a rate cut and then that's when small caps the index took off oh yeah 40% by the end of the summer I I just want to dig into it does it make sense that Tech that Nvidia and Tesla and Microsoft and Apple and meta should be outperforming as the odds rise for a democratic Victory uh some of that it's in a day-to-day it could be noise because last week you had the biggest down week for the NASDAQ in quite a long time so I think there is a bit of a dead cat bounce but to me um I agree with you I don't think that the fangs are necessarily A A A kamla Harris you know taking the White House trade but there is some evidence of the fading of the Trump trade as you mentioned Russell's under performing Bitcoin weaker today financials are lower so are energy stocks well again it's uh you know the the selloff for the Russell started in the middle of last week it's down almost 5% uh it is a mirror image of what happened in October after that first week rally you had a 5% decline over eight trading days and then you had essentially a 25% rally for 7 weeks without a draw down I I'm not sure that's any different today is your long-standing optimism about deflation really changing at all do you expect any surprises on Friday uh I mean the inflation coming up again will it come in softer again and that I mean they're talking about politics there in terms of who's going to be in the white house but really I think that interest rates and the economic situation the macroeconomic situation which is really impossible to predict consistently over the long term it's hard to know what will happen there and the market does think ahead forward-looking Market thinks here in reaction to what goes on there so it will be interesting to see you know one print can be uncertain but I think the forces underway for inflation to fall like a rock or in place I mean the reality is there's a durables recession it's in he said that before he thinks inflation is going to fall Like a Rock Housing and now it's in Autos that's like 60% of the CPI basket is in a decline until the FED really injects confidence by cutting and so I I think there is urgency for fed cuts to happen sooner but at the same time I think the effect on inflation is there isn't another incremental driver for new inflation so inflation I think is going to surprise to the downside and hopefully it's Friday energy same story I know we've got okay they talk about energy there inflation was the big story there this Friday will be fascinating to see what happens and what does happen after that okay next we're going to go onto this bull case for small caps 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description and the pin comment for the special offer so go and check that out now let's get back to at this the B the bull case for small caps here let's see what this they say about this here bouncing back today after we saw that big rotation into value and one of my next guests says last week moves were typical for the start of a new bull market and see small cap outperformance ahead joining me now is Nancy pry senior portfolio manager at Essex investment management and Brian levit is here with me he's Global Market strategist at investo welcome to both of you Nancy I think that's you uh talking the the happy talk about small caps in the market is that right you're some people think now it's it's over it's over but you're sticking with it some people do think that's short lived that it's that was it 10% and then the pullback was it for small caps are this thing that's going to be sustained absolutely not I mean remember we are coming off one of the most dramatic small cap underperformance cycles that we've had in fact um it's the second worth per worst period of underperformance since 1926 um one of the largest and relative underperformance this rubber band was stretched incredibly tight with the move into Mega caps and away from small caps so even though the moves have been very dramatic and we would not be surprised to see it pause a little bit here we think that the combination of under ownership low valuations and better earnings growth coming will lead to um what could be a very very robust small cap cycle Brian I like the comment on the pause and here's why so we look at our tactical maybe he's going to take the the other position here there is a bit of a pause but it was a record a record jump there to start off if this if this indeed is a a bull market setting for the small caps and it's been a long time if you look at the IND indices as I said ital indicators which is rolling over a bit growth is clearly slowing globally led by some slowdown in the US so that's typically not a prime spot for small caps now the market got a little ahead of itself with expectations for Ray Cuts so you get a small cap pop which was great in the near term um I would say I agree it's more of a quality Mega cap type of world as the US economy moderates but we have to remember where're Peak inflation Peak rates Peak tightening we will see the yield curve normalize and over the next few years I agree small caps should do well in that type of an environment I feel like you're stretching to agree I feel like you really disagree I'm yeah it does seem that that way he's not really agreeing it is still a mega Cap World the multiples of that those have run up so it's going to be interesting to see if you look at the IND sees the the the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 have gone up and the the Russell 2000 and the S&P 600 which is a small cap index have kind of diverged away from each other will it level up will they get more you know will it be some catch up here one goes down one goes up or small caps go up to meet it that's another situation we just don't know it's hard to predict stretching to agree because I really do believe the normalization of the Y the small caps need a catalyst value needs a catalyst and so right now you're not going to see growth go to a new level right and so that Catalyst doesn't exist instead what you need is we need to come through the economic soft patch and then be convinced that the FED can normalize the yield curve without a recession so in other words the reacceleration after after that slow down Nancy what do you think well I agree that we need a catalyst we think we've had that Catalyst with the most recent um inflation print that that was if if you'll use the analogy with um inertia and a body and motions staying in motion that was the change in force that caused the shift and where the market is going we all yeah that did seem to be the true it did seem to be the case where the CPI inflation came in and as we said that the next one's coming up so if it comes in softer that was the Catalyst with inflation and then the interest rates possibly coming down or the market seeing that that's going to happen soon and that was the catalyst so is it a broadening of the market perhaps in including small caps that we haven't seen for a long time it's going to be fascinating to see if that's the case it's not investment advice I'm not I'm not suggesting trading on this at all or buying or selling you have to do your own work on that and seek Financial advice it's just for entertainment purposes and this kind of thing is entertainment and general education as well right so right now I'm going to put a link on the screen to what YouTube thinks that you should want NE watch next and also a subscribe link if you're not subscribed yet do that and thanks to everybody for watching and I'll see you in the next one
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