저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
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결론: 드러켄밀러는 2023년 심각한 경기침체 가능성이 높다고 보며, 향후 10년간 다우지수가 지금보다 크게 오르지 않을 것으로 전망한다. 연준 정책 실수: 연준이 2021년 백신 확정 후에도 대규모 양적완화를 지속해 인플레이션을 자초했고, 이를 일시적이라 주장하며 대응이 늦었다고 비판한다. 인플레이션 배경: 백신 이후 2조 달러 규모의 QE와 정부의 대규모 재정부양이 겹쳤고, 목표 2%를 0.3%p 올리려던 시도가 결과적으로 큰 리스크를 키웠다. 피해 대상: 손실은 미국 서민과 중산층이 주로 떠안게 되며, 그 영향은 수년간 지속될 것이라 한다. 역사적 교훈: 대형 자산버블 붕괴 뒤에는 1930년대 대공황, 일본 버블 이후 30년 장기침체 같은 심각한 경제 악화가 따라왔다고 강조한다. 주식시장 전망: 긴축(QT) 전환으로 과거 10~15년간의 유동성 장세가 역전되고 있으며, 장기간 횡보하거나 하락 조정이 올 수 있다. 다만 랠리가 간간이 있을 수 있어 돈을 벌 기회는 존재한다고 언급한다. 경기침체 전망: 2023년 심각한 침체가 올 것이라 보며, 시기는 특정하지 않지만 2023년 말까지는 발생할 것으로 본다. 일반적인 경기침체보다 더 심각할 수 있다고 열어둔다. 긍정적 전망: 의료 기술, 특히 암 치료 등 뉴로(신경) 분야의 발전에는 강한 낙관을 보인다. 암호화폐: 중앙은행 긴축기에는 비트코인을 보유할 이유를 찾지 못해 보유하지 않으나, 중앙은행 신뢰 하락 후 르네상스 시기에는 잘 될 수 있다고 본다. 리스크 및 조건: 예측이 틀릴 수 있음을 인정하며, 거시 예측과 별개로 시장은 예측이 어렵다는 점을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
hi JJ here with the auto value in this episode Stanley drucken Miller he gave an interview with the CNBC at delivering Alpha conference not long ago he talked about the stock market he was pretty bearish on the stock market and the global economy coming up for the next few years actually but we'll get into that he was also bullish on a couple of things so we'll get to that later in the video as well okay let's get into it now Stanley druckenmot is a very respected macro investor he's done very well one of the very few who's done well out of macro investing in fact over the last 30 years he hasn't had a down year which is pretty amazing now I've read the transcript of this interview some of the key points he says is the Fed was wrong it made a big mistake and he explains why he says the repercussions will be with us for a very long time he also says that he'll be stunned if we don't have a serious recession in 2023 Dracula says he wouldn't be surprised in fact it's a central forecast that the Dow the stock market won't be much higher than it is now in 10 years time that's a long time but he's also wildly bullish on one thing which I'll let you know later on and he's fairly bullish on something else so back in 2021 he said he was incredibly frustrated at what the Fed was doing and I remember that and I've made a previous video about drucken Miller which I'll link to in the description and he says that it they think he thinks that they're destroying 40 Years of credibility by what they've done this incredibly big gamble and it's going to have big consequences so it says I've learned 40 Years of credibility with inflation they've blown up one of the biggest asset bubbles he's ever seen and he knows that some of the worst economies happen after big asset bubbles have burst he points to the 1930s and also to Japan after their battle burst which they really haven't recovered from in 30 years part of the problem is he said that the FED did 2 trillion in QE after vaccine confirmation and at the same time the government had massive stimulus he thinks it wasn't needed at the time that they did it after vaccines were confirmed so that led to inflation it was more stimulus than we had during the whole financial Global crisis as I said it was way Overkill so it's not just that the fit was wrong he says because he's been wrong many times it's not that they made a mistake it's that their the risk reward for what they did was too high he explains that the risky bit they took was trying to get inflation up to two percent when it was at 1.7 and they did all the stimulus to try and get inflation up just 30 basis points 0.3 percent but it wasn't needed so they lost the bet okay at this point I'd like to ask you if you're on YouTube to give us a like if you were getting better out of this that'd be great for the YouTube elgo and for me thanks but he says of course who lost was it was the poor people in the US and middle classes and his things that we felt for years to come so as a gamble that the FED took didn't pay off and now everybody's going to have to pay he said what was mind-boggling to him is that when flashing did take off a few months later they came up with this ridiculous theory that it was transitory when it was when it obviously wasn't in drucken Miller said this at the time but they waited and they waited to see the whites of the eyes of inflation and they and they got it and then they just waited too long to act so it took off so it says the important thing is when you make a mistake to admit you're wrong and fix it but they said they waited for for months and months they kept buying bonds and saying that was transitory instead of admitting the mistake and he said the repercussions of that are going to be felt for a long long time in his opinion he reminds us that when Putin invaded CPI was already at seven percent so of course it was the stimulus from government and fed that caused it it did say that it it helped along and escalated that but it was already there running high already so of course that was the cause and he says once you've lit the match it's hard to stop the fire and so he thinks it's about like the 1970s of course it took off and it's hard to stop it's going to be hard to rewind he doesn't think it's going to come down quickly so about the stock market he says we've got a complacent about what long-term investing is as well he points out that if he bought he bought the market in 1929 it took to 1954 to get back to even and if you bought it in 1966 it was about even in 1982 and of course there's a kind of a long bull market after that he says the last 10 years of the bull market where there's been 30 trillion dollars of QE and down to zero rates let's put everything into hyperdrive but now all that's going into reverse there are consequences and it's all gone into reverse so he reminds us in the stock market you can have 10 15 20 years of it not going anywhere not to say that you can't make money he says in markets like that you can have 60 rallies along the way but it's difficult and just remember long term can sometimes mean really long term if you look at history so what it's saying is that you can still make money in the market but we've had 30 to 40 Years of hurricane as a tower went and that's come to an end and he wouldn't be surprised if the Dow wasn't much higher in 10 years time so about the coming recession he thinks we're in deep travel he said he wouldn't be surprised if there was a serious recession in 2023 he doesn't know the timing but he'd be very surprised if it wasn't by the end of 2023 and he said it he wouldn't be surprised if it was bigger than the garden variety recession so he's not rolling that out he's not forecasting that but he's not ruling out that it could be really serious there's reason for this is because of what he's already said the liquidity situation that we've had we've gone from massive QE to QT and it's followed an asset battle which is when you get serious consequences this is already pessimistic from him isn't it so that's his forecast he said it's going to be a hard Landing in 2023 he says it could be wrong it's been wrong before but that's he says he does it for a living and this is his forecast and we'll see what happens so it's all really pessimistic one thing he says that he is bullish on is wildly bullish is medical advances so particularly cancer in Euro progress he says however you define neuro-progress but is bullish on that so the other thing is mildly bullish on he says he doesn't own Bitcoin or crypto can't find a reason to buy it while central banks are tightening but he did say that afterwards because people will be not trusting of central banks he thinks it could do fairly well in a Renaissance afterwards but can't find a reason to have it in his portfolio now they're pretty pessimistic from Stan but he's had a good record as I said a very long and good track record I think he's definitely one worth listening to and I'm not going to invest by the macro and never do that I look at the micro although Warren Buffett's advice have been looking at the micro but it's it's important to see what's going on especially if we're heading into a time that he says it's definitely a possibility I think it's happened before right that the global financial crisis and it's not looking great out there but you just cannot predict the market you just cannot and that's what worrying about it says you could do the opposite of what you think and he's as Stan as soon he's been wrong before so I'll just leave it at that so if you like this video if you're on YouTube please think about subscribing giving us a like and if you're listening on another podcast platform subscribe or follow whatever it allows you to do and I'll see you next time
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