Investor Jeremy Grantham: Super Bubble Enters Final Phase

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결론: 그랜섬은 현재를 거품 붕괴 과정으로 보며 아직 최악이 오지 않았다고 본다. 주요 주장: 그랜섬은 주식·주택·채권이 2021년 말 기준 크게 고평가였고 점차 해소 중이라고 진단. 거품 비교: 1929년 대공황, 2000년 닷컴 버블, 일본 자산 버블(1989년 이후 30년 장기침체)과 유사한 패턴이라고 봄. 거품 붕괴 4단계: ①거품 형성 ②초기 하락(경기 불안, 전쟁·인플레 등) ③베어마켓 랠리(손실의 절반 이상 회복) ④펀더멘털 악화에 따른 최종 하락. 현재 위치: 3단계 베어마켓 랠리를 지나 4단계로 진입 전이라는 판단. 과거 사례상 랠리 후 하락폭이 더 컸다고 언급. 리스크: 이익률(마진) 하락, 인플레이션, 금리 충격, 원자재·에너지 급등이 성장을 짓누름. 소비자·기업 심리는 신저점 테스트 중, 기술 부문 채용 둔화·해고 증가, CEO들의 경기침체 우려. 결론적 기대: 이번 붕괴가 1929년만큼 나쁘지 않고 2000년처럼 경미하지는 않을 것이라는 희망을 언급하나, 거품은 결국 해소되어야 한다고 봄. 진행자 입장: 거시 이벤트보다 개별 기업 실적을 중시하며 그랜섬 견해는 참고용이라고 밝힘. 대상 자산 예측 발언: 개별 종목·지수 등에 대한 명확한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음(장기적 거품 붕괴·하락 우려 중심).

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01. hi JJ here with the other value an investor Jeremy grantham's latest article entering the super bubble's Final Act he talks about preparing for the Epic finale of the super Babble that he says we find ourselves in Grantham says only a few Market events are really important in an Investor's career and among the most important are super bubbles Grantham thinks we're in the midst of a Super Bubble and it's now unwinding as we'll see one of the features of the unwinding of the bubble is a bear Market rally which we've just experienced after their initial stages of decline then a bear Market rally and then another leg down so he says that's about where we are now and the phases of a Super Bubble with that final stage to go so the big problem as Grantham sees it is that we have the most dangerous mix of factors in modern times that is the three big asset classes housing stocks and bonds are all way overvalued at least they were at the end of last year and becoming less so how does he know it's a super Pebble well he Compares it to other super bubbles in history that is 1929 an epic battle and 2000 the.com bubble known as the.com or Tech Babel and 2021 it's also took before elsewhere about Japan the Epic Babel stock and housing bubble that they had which burst and it's been 30 years and it's they still haven't really recovered from that Grantham says in the previous three cases after the initial decline the market rallied bear Market rally to gain over half of its losses again to lure investors back in and then only to turn down a lot more again he says that the market rally that we've just had the bear Market rally fits the pattern perfectly one thing Grantham says to remember about super bubbles is that historically they've always broken back to Trend eventually so the higher they go the further they have to fall so now Grantham says that fundamentals are deteriorating enormously which means that the worst is probably is to come every cycle is different but he says it's very likely that the worst is yet to come in his opinion so at this point if you're on YouTube I'd like to ask you to hit that like button if you're getting value out of this episode thank you grantham's Theory out there are four stages to a Super Bubble multiple stages and the first is of course that the bubble forms the second is that some setback occurs like it did in the first half of this year when investors realize that economic conditions Perhaps Perhaps aren't so good something happens that a war starts for instance inflation and the market starts to take a step back third he says is what we've just seen a bear Market rally and they can be big ones and fourth is when fundamentals deteriorate and the market takes another big step down to its low so to conclude Grantham says that the next leg is likely to be driven by Falling margins and we've also had higher inflation and of course the rate shock which is ongoing and that will drive the market down to its low so Grantham also says to add to the pain we've had a Commodities and energies surge which will cast a long Shadow over growth given all these negative factors he says it's not surprising that consumer and business confidence is currently testing new lows and of course in the tech sector which is really the leader in the U.S and global economy hiring is slowing layoffs arising and CEOs are getting worried about a looming recession so Grantham to conclude says that every cycle is different and every response by Central Bank and government is different but he hopes that this is a Super Bubble unwinding won't be as bad as 1929 and as minor as 2000 which really didn't affect the economy too much and it worked out okay over time but the bubble needs to unwind it well unwind so it remains to be seen what will happen I just want to reiterate that this is Jeremy grantham's opinion his view not mine and I do think he should be listened to and he's a respected investor he's he's a student of bubbles over history which he says so it's worth listening to but as far as the macro events go I look at micro events with the companies how the companies are doing over time and not the big macro events I don't invest invest according to macro but I do think it's good to know about it and good to know what's happening out there especially in terms of inflation and interest rates and things like that nonetheless really interesting so I've made other videos about Jeremy granthan's existing views I'll put some links in the description and also if you're on YouTube there'll be a link at the end of the video so if you've got value out of this episode please like And subscribe if you're on YouTube and if you're elsewhere follow subscribe whatever your podcast player allows you to do and I'll see you next time