저자: TomLee · 외국인
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관세는 부정적 신호가 아니라 협상 타결 시 긍정적 시나리오가 될 수 있으며, 4월 2일 이후 해결되면 큰 반등이 나올 수 있다고 주장. 쿠바 미사일 위기 사례를 들어 시장은 사건 전 바닥을 치는 경향이 있다고 설명. 경기침체 가능성은 과대평가되었고 시장은 비관보다 마비 상태라고 봄. 비트코인 ETF 자금 유입 등 기관 관심 회복을 언급하나 구체적 가격 전망은 없음.
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markets should interpret it positively because I think when we talk to our clients many are viewing tariffs as punitive potentially protectionist and driving several economies into recession uh this sounds like discusses how tariffs May create a positive case scenario in this video we cover Market ships and economic insights let's watch to learn more now let's bring in fun strat's managing partner head of research Tom Lee a CNBC contributors good to have you what do you make of of this report I mean you know part of the uncertainty of all of this has been the you know Iron Fist maybe Olive Branch back to the Iron Fist maybe an olive branch what do you make of it well I think it's UNM markets should interpret it positively because I think when we talk to our clients many are viewing tariffs as punitive potentially protectionist and driving several economies into recession uh this sounds like that we could actually have a positive case scenario with these tariffs one that's either mutually agreed upon or if it's reciprocal but maybe a good deal for businesses and I think it would stage set the stage for a much bigger recovery rally than we expect afterwards right I mean the problem is is the paralysis if you will between now and then like what are we supposed to do over the next 10 days uh I that's the Dilemma right because we still have eight trading days till April 2nd most investors are are getting just nauseous from the volatility uh so they want to throw in the towel but we also know that markets will bottom or have historically bottom before the event actually happens you know the best example is the Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 that was a 12-day crisis the stock market bottom 7 days into that crisis recovered 2third of the losses before the resolution so I I think that's a decent template for today what about the economy I mean listen to Nike FedEx put that on top of what we've already heard are you concerned about where the economy is going uh I mean it's been pretty shocking how quickly sentiment deteriorated I can understand for consumers because the present's very divisive but for CEOs uh that's been a shock you know CEO confidence has fallen and and they've kind of been sitting on their hands so we know there's a an Impulse of a growth shock underway but if if this is something that doesn't last months then it's very temporary after five consecutive weeks of net outflows Bitcoin ETF have experienced a remarkable turnaround with $744 million in infl flows this week on Monday alone These funds saw a strong $274 million influx marking the highest single day figure in over a month the renewed inflows signal a Resurgence of institutional interest amid easing macroeconomic pressures as investors begin to regain confidence Bitcoin remains below the $90,000 threshold leaving room for potential Market recovery following a brutal February in which Bitcoin ETF shed over $5.3 billion recent inflows over six consecutive days suggest that institutional players are repositioning themselves in anticipation of a rebound black Rock's ibit led the charge with a robust $150 million inflow on Friday despite grayscale's gbtc continuing to experience outflows crypto influencer Zia hHw speculated that these moves might indicate Insider confidence in bitcoin's future while some analysts caution that a portion of the demand may come from ARB trade strategies rather than genuine long-term interest overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with Bitcoin trading around $84,500 sure what's going to happen and ultimately whether a growth scare spirals into something else which Jeffrey gunlock gave me his view yesterday right here on closing bell listen I do think the the chance of recession is higher than most people believe I I I actually think it's higher than 50% um coming in in you know in the next few quarters 50 60% I mean if he's right what does that mean for the stock market well too expensive when the S&P had a 40% sorry 10% draw down that's already priced 40% chance of a recession I'd say the markets aren't agreeing necessarily with his view because China Europe Canada Mexico have been massively outperforming the us since February 18th they those economies should be tumbling into recession if we have punitive tariffs so I I think markets are actually more paralyzed than necessarily pessimistic and Sir finish finish your thought but but because the market is the economy I think to the extent that stocks rebound sharply after April 2 if they do I think it really staves off future economic is the market a real economy I think it's a very these days to me I think it's a really good snapshot of actual sentiment and actually even Co decisions because as you know when stocks fall companies lose confidence and as stocks recover CEOs gain confidence what about the idea that gunlock also put forth that the in his words unintended consequences of all of the rhetoric from the president is making people think twice especially overseas about investing in the US and the view that Europe is just a better value and offers even less risk than before how do you play that uh I mean we hear a lot of folks talking about that but as you know uh Europe tends to be single stock concentrated indices so if you're buying Europe you're basically buying Industrials and financials if you're buying Korea you're buying Samsung so so I think if someone is looking for the best companies they're still going to end up buying the US you know one of the things that we have to keep in mind is this trade deal if it if it's acceptable could actually basically sort of blunt this whole issue of trade in the future and it it would actually make the us more attractive again Bitcoin faces downside risk as it struggles to break out above key resistance levels making a correction towards $65,000 a distinct possibility this week Bitcoin failed to sustain its rally past $887,000 trading mostly sideways above $83,000 amid easing Global monetary pressures while bitcoin's performance remains uncertain altcoins have shown strong resilience form surged by 87% following a successful rebranding and token swap capturing Market attention pancake swap trading under the symbol cake experienced notable gains as its decentralized exchange volumes soared and attracted new users meanwhile ton coin toen posted impressive weekly gains bolstered by positive sentiment surrounding key developments overall the contrasting performance highlights a market divided between caution over bitcoin's near-term Outlook and optimism for select altcoins with investor confidence wavering the potential for a deeper correction looms leaving Traders closely monitoring support levels and Market sentiment per signs of recovery or further decline the Outlook remains cautiously uncertain at the first SEC crypto Round Table finan expert Lee reiners made a striking statement Bitcoin is neither a security nor an investment contract speaking as a visiting fellow at the Duke Financial economics Center reiners emphasized bitcoin's unique decentralization he explained that while Bitcoin operates across many parameters like governance Network and data it is still unclear when a digital asset becomes sufficiently decentralized so the profits do not solely depend on others efforts the Roundtable gathered influential voices including John Reed Stark miles Jennings and former SEC commissioner Troy parades all discussing how to adapt existing Securities laws for digital assets this Gathering reflects a new regulatory approach under the current Administration aiming to reshape crypto oversight the discussion provided fresh insights on market dynamics and regulation sparking interest and debate among industry participants and investors alike their conversation illuminated potential Pathways for future Innovation and clear industry standards and
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