저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
실업수당 청구 증가와 챌린저 감원 집계 최고치를 근거로 경기 둔화 우려 제기. 관세 갈등으로 미국 동맹국들이 반발하며 무역전쟁 장기화 시 경기침체 가능성이 커지고, 디플레·금리 인하로 이어질 수 있다고 주장. 자산 직접 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
hey I just wanted to add this in initial and continuing claims just came out watch that continuing claims number it is climbing up to the highest levels we've seen since the pandemic so watch that number initials are going to move every single week last week up this week down a little compared to expectations but watch the trend line of continuing it's sneaking up but for now let's get into today's news oh man there's a lot hey everyone good morning me Kevin here we've got some more problems to deal with in this video I'm going to talk about Challenger job Cuts but also I really want to get to the bottom of the Trump problem now this is a trump card problem that I don't think Trump has really had to face before this video is not designed to be political in nature I'm not trying to take a side left or right trying to provide you insights and perspective on what could potentially go wrong here and what's already going wrong so that way you can observe okay what could those implications mean for me my portfolio my wealth my business everything going forward job Cuts okay first things first highest total job Cuts announced since February of 2009 at72 Cuts that's the highest for the month of February though it's not actually the highest for any month given that we had a pretty high month in July of 2020 uh with substantially higher uh or more job Cuts within a month now part of this was of course because of Doge in fact a significant portion uh was because of Doge uh but there was plenty of cutting as well in retail and consumer products in fact job cuts for retail and consumer products are up 572 from last year this month this is in total double the cuts announced last year at this time highest year-to-date total since 2009 we're up 33% year-to date since last year and quote private companies announced plans to shed thousands of jobs last month particular in retail consumer products retail and Technology Doge was also responsible for a substantial portion with uh you know layoffs and and cancel government contracts the sort of KnockOn effects right so this is not a great report it's a report that uh is slowly moving up and slowly getting worse uh but it's a report that we kind of anticipated would come in a little dirty the problem with it is you're starting to get some of that pain on that retail side as in business side now why could that be well two potential reasons here number one businesses acknowledging that the optimism that we had before the election isn't turning into sales at that point those companies rather than announcing plans to hire end up laying off right because they're taking it in the margin due to higher producer costs and then they have to lay off to try to stay in business this is very normal there's a second potential though and that's that that a lot of businesses are still very optimistic in fact this Challenger job Cuts report indicated that jobs to be hired was sitting at 4,669 now that's you know a fraction of the 172 that we just cut but that announced jobs to be hired section is actually sitting up at the highest level since February of 20122 so how do you put those pieces of the puzzle together some businesses are suffering and they're laying off obviously do is contributing to Cuts affecting these numbers how is it possible that some businesses are still wanting to hire well that's because I believe layoffs don't all come at once they come like a disease I like to use covid as an example because it's just an example of how we're all familiar with how rapidly that can spread uh so think back to 2021 think about the businesses laying off now as being the businesses around the Wuhan flea market and in Seattle because a cruise ship just arrived you know or Manhattan right those are sort of the businesses that like oh crap the the sales have really taken a hit time to lay off obviously making an analogy here now other businesses like maybe those in Ohio or Texas like we don't got that stuff over here we're still optimistic we're still hiring but it's coming so uh that's that's my read of this report now something that could add fuel to the fire of this is people saying no to Donald Trump Trump now Donald Trump is not used to people saying no to him that's because he's been a very powerful person his entire life first obviously with a small loan from his dad the drum Empire remember Donald Trump actually changed his last name from drum which is Dru mpf I think it was like Dutch or German or something like that uh to Trump uh smart move but anyway excuse me so he's always had a lot of clout first it was dad's clout then he built his own clout I'm not here to shade him for that I'm just saying he's always been used to having the cards right the trump card as ivanka's book is called okay so it's been easy for Donald Trump to negotiate from a position of power in his businesses when it comes to the US economy the US economy has always been one that could negotiate from a position of power because it's always been the strongest economy in the world by a fact of two well what happens and we don't know the answer to this because I think it rarely happens when everybody else starts saying no to us now this is interesting let's go through this first zilinsky apologized after being castrated during the Trump Oval Office meeting saying he was ready to work with Donald Trump and work on that mineral deal Donald Trump and the Trump Administration apparently were looking for a video apology uh to essentially use it to celebrate Victory however since then zalinsky apparently secured sub substantial funding for missiles and weapons from the European commission a group of European countries including countries like Finland the United Kingdom Greece Croatia you know obviously the non- country uh such as NATO uh and others now a lot of trump uh and and and you know supporters of this move say good let Ukraine be funded not by American taxpayer money but instead by the people who are most affected by that security issue the people of Europe great that's a fair argument but it does and now for a message from our paid sponsor of fabric by Gerber life life insurance is really important everybody in my opinion should have it because we just don't know what 2025 is going to have in store for us okay we've already seen some craziness and Aviation talk about Co 2.0 and Wuhan it is so overwhelming and exhausting and make your life easy designed for busy folks like you and even if you already have coverage consider Extra Protection Extra Protection never hurts fabric has partnered with Gerber Life and is trusted by millions of families and has been for over 50 years and they give you some bonuses as well like free digital wills and tools to invest for your kids' Future something else there's no risk you get a 30-day money back guarantee and you can cancel at any time so apply today in just minutes at meetfabric that's meetfabric EET fabric.com Slevin hey and I meet Kevin so it should be easy to spell m fabric.com but it does isolate us from those alliances so it does come with the cost every action has an equal or opposite reaction right sometimes even worse the reactions others say hey if we don't have those allies potentially in Ukraine or Europe does that mean our leverage now goes away because they don't need yes again many people are like that's fine we don't want them anyway but it's something to keep in mind so if that turns into a no okay that's one no big deal Donald Trump can handle a no okay well what about this Claudia shinberg in response to Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico uh just a a few days ago here said there will be no more submission from Mexico that's her quote she reiterated that they've done what they can to avoid tariffs more border support fentanyl tracking support intervention support uh you've got um cartel leaders being deported to the United States as a show of good faith for Mexico doing what they can then Mexico is coming from the angle of okay we we're trying here and Trump imposes tariffs anyway mind you these tariffs are being imposed anyway on countries that signed the Trump replacement of NAFTA the usca which which you know Mexico and Canada thought wait we thought we were we were sticking to that deal now you want a new deal okay fine here's a new deal they agreed to a new deal and then they get slapped in the face anyway with terrorist and so now Mexico is saying we're done we're not doing anymore in fact 80% of the people that were arresting for venyl tracking are US citizens so maybe this is actually more of your problem than it's our problem obviously people are manufacturing the fentanyl in and you know the forest in Mexico all right that's Mexico and Ukraine right now you've got Trudeau of Canada we won't drop retaliatory tariffs against the United States unless tariffs are completely rolled back now remember Trump suggested well the Trump Administration through letnik suggested that hey we're going to meet in the middle you know we'll come up with some negotiated solution this is all just Trump posturing and negotiating all right maybe it is but Trudeau says we're done we're not backing down from a fight we're not meeting you in the m unless you roll back all of the tariffs we will have our own retaliatory tariffs to which of course Trump says fine we'll have more retaliatory tariffs this is what a trade war is again Trudeau says we're not backing down okay so now this is very interesting because you've got Justin Trudeau saying Trump is working to appease Vladimir Putin and he's stabbing his friends in the back this obviously we've already talked about this before so I just want to quickly mention it to make sure I don't get comments of people uh you know thinking that I'm not mentioning it because you know sometimes people don't watch every video that's okay it it hurts my soul a little bit but that's okay consumers in Canada and Mexico have already to some extent started to boycott American Products because of this we acknowledge this but that's just one issue the other issue is what happens if this continues and we can keep believing that we have the position of power given the strength of our economy but in the meantime our economy starts deteriorating see that's when all of our previous allies in Europe Ukraine uh Mexico Canada essentially have this unofficial Alliance or unofficial group of hey if we all pressure the us together we can actually make a dent now Sarah Eisen rehosted on x a very traditional comment I was a little surprised she did uh but she quote tweeted how much American Trade makes up the Mexican and Canada Canadian economy and she quote tweeted and said they do not have the cards now obviously that's a quote of trump in the zinsky meeting applied to Canada and Mexico I was surprised because to me it seemed like somebody who is typically very neutral Sarah Eisen has kind of gone all in on one side here here now I'm not saying there's a problem with that again this this isn't a political video I was just surprised to see Sarah Eis say that but it created an opportunity for me to look at this and say okay well wait a minute yes individually our cards are better than any of those single countries or single problems but what about all those problems together what if everybody at the table in a game of settlers of Katon is trading with each other with the one goal of ruining you and forcing you to bend that let that's never happened before there's a chance you could still win but it's going to be a lot harder it's going to be more expensive it's going to cause more damage and all of this is fine like the us could Embark in this trade War if we had a strong economy an underlyingly strong economy my belief is that we don't and that this Market disease if you will call it the co of the market is slowly spreading and what happens as it slowly spreads is it increases the risks that we actually do end up falling into a recession now that'll be deflationary prices will come down and not only will it be deflationary but we'll have lower rates so we'll be accomplishing a lot of the things that Donald Trump is looking for now other countries could go into a worse recession but does that matter like if you lose your job does it matter to you that two people in Canada lost their jobs because even you know Premier Ford suggests hey Canadians are going to lose jobs because of this does it matter to you I mean from a political point of view we might look and say haha we got them they're losing more jobs than us their economy suffering more than us okay what does that do when your children's 529 plan is now worth half as much as it was before because of an S&P you know a coordinated S&P 500 sell off what does that do for your retirement what does that do for your business what does that do for your ability to hire your ability to make investments your ability to grow as an American well it's not good so I'm of the mindset that this this trade War Fiasco is not good to start with but it's even worse if everybody coordinates against us to say no now I I don't know maybe this is a big nothing burger and it'll all blow over but I think our economy is way too sensitive now we'll see yesterday we had a little bit little bit better uh data such as the uh the ism data that finally you know at least at least these these reports were less bad but one of the reasons they were less bad was because once again we're talking about this enthusiasm of a pull forward of uh manufacturing demand uh and ordering demand because of tariff uncertainty every single comment in there had to do with tariff uncertainty now again can all of this tariff uncertainty go away and could all of these problems be solved and was this all a major buying opportunity yes I want to be crystal clear about that if all the Tariff negotiations go away and we end up in a position where we finally start seeing a path to tax cuts which would be stimulative great maybe then we could get out of this
Comments 0