저자: Kevin · 외국인
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ADP 고용 발표가 예상(16.4만)을 크게 밑도는 7.7만으로 나와 경기 우려가 커졌다고 진단한다. BCA 리서치가 12개월 내 경기침체 확률을 75%로 올린 점을 소개한다. 관세 불확실성과 소비 둔화가 주요 리스크이며, 트럼프의 관세 정책이 의도적 경기침체를 유도할 수도 있다는 주장도 언급한다. 소비의 상위 10%가 지출의 90%를 담당해 주식 하락이 소비 위축으로 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 중국은 경기 부양 기조로 중국 주식이 상승세라고 평가한다. 발언자 자신은 경기침체 확률 상승을 인정하지만 BCA만큼 비관적이지는 않다고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
a lot to talk about Donald Trump's speech last night we have recession odds skyrocketing but maybe a tariff deal and we just got Tesla figures from Germany uh February and worse the ADP report a lot to cover so I'm going to go through all of the data I've got it written down here so we'll keep it organized and let's get straight to the point thanks for being here by the way okay ADP report hiring slow to the smallest gain since July with trade and transportation Healthcare and education and it showing job losses small business employment also fell we were expecting like 164,000 job gains from the ADP report this is the private survey this is not the government's you know Bureau of Labor Statistics survey that comes out on Friday and tomorrow we'll get unemployment claims which last week were up but those are also very volatile this one doesn't always align with the government one in fact it rarely does people like this survey though as a fact Checker to the what people say is the rigged government one anyway we were expecting 164 we got 77 that's bad obviously uh why well the chief Economist says policy uncertainty and a Slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a Slowdown in hiring last month so this is very interesting because yesterday and actually frankly for the past few weeks I've been saying on the channel That in order to really recover from some of the damage that the economy has re received from even just the talk of tariffs is a you need tariffs to go away but B you're going to need some form of stimulus to the economy I'm not necessarily saying stimulus checks but dose checks could potentially do that uh it could be anything you know it could be more government spending in in some form uh I'm not trying to shill for government spending I'm just saying in order to help to go back to a trajectory of growth it's not only going to have to be getting ter tariffs away and we'll talk about tariffs in just a moment and reason I say that is because this ADP reported it's basically first quote says a policy certainty and a Slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs right so this is their interpretation it's that Duality it's not just one thing now you could say hey but consumer spending you know that'll come back up again if tariffs go away will it doesn't always work that way you know once you start the cycle of pain business goes damn revenues are down revenues start coming up again slowly are they going to go right back to spending again and blowing it all no they might still be a little Shell Shocked like we're going to keep a little in reserve there just in case we have another slow month like that Jan fed period again anyway our data combined with recent indicators suggest a hiring hesitancy amongst employers as they assess the economic climate ahead wow okay so small businesses actually lost jobs it's not a surprise to me that small businesses are starting to uh uh to to dump jobs this this happens a lot because small businesses the reason they're small is often because they have the tightest margins I hate to say it you know they rely much they can have high margins but that relies pretty much on an owner operator right uh and then it comes down to how much time does that person want to put in but when you start growing that business is when you can scale the efforts of that one person uh and that's hard that's a very hard transition to make and so usually uh the margins at small businesses are tighter usually not always you know some businesses are good uh but uh small businesses actually shrank Goods producing and natural resources and Mining shrink construction manufacturing was up uh but again A lot of people are putting an as risk on manufacturing because of trying to get ahead of the tariffs and then wow yeah trade transportation and Utilities Red information red uh Financial activities Business Services those were green education and Health Services down 28k Leisure hospitality uh was was actually uh up in 41k so that's nice but wow that's a that's a pretty rough report 77k that's definitely against expectations so how does this tie into what some folks are saying about recession well yesterday you had BCA research uh and they've kind of been a little bit on the bearish side I I want to just be clear about that I always like suggesting what people's biases are but they've been this way really since kind of I've been a little bearish which was last July so you know call us the early Camp if you will they said quote we are lifting our 12-month recession probability from 65% to 75% following Trump's Triumph at the polls the recent rise in bond yields over the last 8 to 12 weeks uh and those in anticipation of Trump's Victory C cannot be justified by an increase in GDP growth uh rather uh that uh the the reason we saw a move in was potentially because of the pricing in of stagflation uh and as soon as that flation uh trickles away and turns into deflation basically you're stuck with the stagnation uh which is very likely at this point to be negative growth that's their argument okay so that's their research that's their piece they're raising their odds to 75% uh and that is their 12 month Target I think it's worth putting a time frame on that because I think the odds of recession in the next decade are like 100% right but they're saying 75% over the next uh 12 months so uh then we're going to go through Donald Trump's speech but what I want to hit on first is what's what he said specifically about tariffs because that matters very very U much here so first Donald Trump told us that whatever another country tariffs us we will tariff them back this is sort of the reciprocal reciprocal right so if we tax the EU you know obviously not a country here but if we tax the EU to equalize the vat taxes value added taxes and then they tax us back then we will tax them again sort of this NeverEnding back and forth tit fortat of a uncertainty and B higher uh dead weight loss because tariffs are an economically miserable Tool uh but that's obviously what we're seeing right now Donald Trump's take is hey we're going to stabilize and then we'll be able to grow better now Donald Trump even suggested that there could be some short-term disruption now this was a really interesting uh uh you know how should I put it um admission if you will from Donald Trump he basically says hey yeah you know we might have a little bit of a hiccup or a little bit of a short-term oopsy doopsy but it's going to be worth it because we'll be on better footing in the future now this is a an argument that has led to companies on Wall Street like nura research suggesting oh my gosh a recession could literally be what Donald Trump wants now when I first read that I go oh that's like the biggest clickbait bull crap ever like who writes this kind of stuff why would a president want tariffs but then I looked at their data and I'm like and their argument and their argument was actually very interesting see they said that Trump wants an engineered recession because it would finally allow uh GDP to slow down enough to usher in lower interest rates and lower prices and a weaker US dollar a weaker US dollar drives more investment into the US it's cheaper to invest in US manufacturing it's cheaper to grow and build in America and basically a small recession that he could blame on Biden could be seen as a means to accomplishing what he wants and frankly this is not entirely untrue it it would be painful and it's not priced in by Wall Street but think of it like an economic hurricane a hurricane that comes in and then it cuts and destroys a lot of stuff it hurts a lot of stuff that's totally fine but it also quote unquote drains the swamp if you will it removes all the weeds and the trash and the dirt right so now not specifically calling anything trash or dirt I'm just more thinking econ environmentally what happens I've lived through many hurricanes I'm in Florida right now but anyway the after a recession period what do you have well in order to to rev up those engines again after a recession you're probably going to be in a zero to maybe even negative interest rate environment you would have a you would have substantially lower rates you'd have a weaker US dollar uh you'd be able to encourage more investment in the United States you'd probably be coming out with a smaller government easier to balance the budget uh and you'd have disinflation you would have lower prices and so there's some people who are arguing that Donald Trump right now is in a position where he could blame Biden for a recession in the next 6 12 months and then be the hero that over the next three years pulls us out of it okay this is an interesting idea if you end up having a uneven Landing okay this is now what namura is also talking about and it's just driving me nuts but now all of a sudden they're pricing in the probability of the no Landing option at like 5% the soft Landing option also at like 5% the uneven landing at like 50% and the hard landing at like 40% I'm tired of plain analogies so I'm not going to go into them I'm on I'm I'm homesick I'm sick of Florida I want to go home to my Florida to my family nobody knows homesick more than I do I'm tired of it yes is it cool to learn how to fly a jet yes but I want to go home boom and make YouTube videos anyway so I told you I'm sick of this all right so this is an interesting argument though because it would create substantial pain it would create stock market pain in the short term it would rally the bond market so you know bonds up TMF up right uh rates would come down like everything he wants would actually be accomplished by a recession so if you kind of think about it some people are looking at that going damn that that Evil Genius other people are like dude I don't know about that man cuz here's the thing you're playing with fire if you throw us into a recession you know and we go to 20 million unemployed in a 15% unemployment rate you know that'd be like 22 million unemployed well then what do you have well now you got to get those people jobs again at the end of the recession well by then you're going to lose midterms you'll lose Congressional control because people going to be pissed and you actually end up increasing the risk of switching to like a party of Nome not like the crazy uh extreme side of the democratic party although Newsome could probably fit over into that basket uh but but I think he'll probably modify himself into more of appearing to be neutral although I don't think he'll ever win because people don't want to California Nome but somebody somebody like that like not like crazy although again people say nome's crazy too I mean I I don't like Nome I'm just I think my what my point is we like we're not going to get Elizabeth waren her AOC okay let's just be blunt about that like we can I think we can all agree that while we don't like Nome uh he is less uh extreme than the Warren or the aoc's okay that's my point just saying somebody more of that uh so that is a risk to Trump because it's hard to get out of a recession you know if you have 15% unemployment and midterms are coming and it's AI is making it harder for people to get jobs and now all of a sudden you go into a lost decade in the stock market yes Donald Trump's plans will work in the long term but you're going to be talking about you know 2032 by the time you recover and that's a poop show because 2032 is when my target is that we're going to have negative interest rates who knows maybe it's all going to play out that way I remember joking when Donald Trump lost in 2020 I remember joking wow wouldn't it be crazy if we ended up having some insane surge of inflation under the next Democratic Administration now uh and then because of all that inflation that President doesn't get reelected and then Trump comes back claiming it was all the other guys's fault damn that's exactly you know and at the time that was a joke right people like that'd be crazy inflation's transitory it's so crazy anyway sorry so then you've got the Trump Administration now talking about revising how they Define GDP but you can already today figure out what GDP is less government spending okay you you go to the St Louis Fred website and you could literally type in real value added by industry private Industries and then change it to percent year-over year boom done 2.8% Q3 2024 done so we already have that data so I I don't know how much that would help it's also worth noting that technically the government directly contributes to GDP uh by about 17 % but the indirect contributions are harder to figure out like when Donald Trump gives certain companies yeah man all right APPA y'all going to be investing 500 bill over the next four years we'll exempt you from tariffs how's that sound you know like that technically is a government contribution towards GDP because it's a form of a subsidy tax break or uh direct transfer fiscal transfer uh how do you calculate that so this is why people say that government actions can actually lead to affecting about 45% maybe even 46% of GDP which is why when people talk about Doge or the government cutting as much as they do that we're probably going to see more pain in the short term uh there's a consensus that there are basically two contractors laid off for every single federal employee there that there is and so uh you know Doge apparently is expected to lead to about 300,000 layoffs here in the near- term so add two contractors for that you're like almost a million workers 900k that's a lot now they got to enter the workforce and find other other jobs in in a not so great Labor Market it's tough and that probably reiterates some of this ADP data that we're getting right now now on top of that you also have really just other countries that are pissed uh specifically I mean I think on a daily basis you get Canadians like uh you know uh LCBO store managers the liquor control what is it Liquor Control Board of Ontario something like that uh you can't buy liquor in a regular grocery store there you have to go to like this government run uh store LCBO I think it is anyway there you know videos circulating on the internet of people basically taking Jack Daniels which is Tennessee whiskey uh and and you know store owners or I should say operators since the government run uh you know runs the stuff uh store managers essentially or employees taking the American product off the shelf putting them in carts and just getting rid of it and people like cheering this uh you have you know stores putting little Canadian flags and all the Canadian stuff to try to promote that it's honestly it's if you have a Canadian product it's it's great business it's a great thing to do it's like oh yeah I Canadian P you know patriotism but yeah I mean that's going to hit our American trade as well so there are these KnockOn effects of okay well wait a minute so we were going to have tariffs and then uh Trudeau and shine bomb said that they would increase border work for the United States and then you're like all right cool we'll delay tariffs now you're like now we're going to do tariffs again and now they're technically in effect and Trump's like I want more and they're like okay let's try to figure this out but it pisses people off in the meantime because it's sort of like when when are the requests going to stop right so what we had yesterday was we had lutnick suggest that Donald Trump is going to announce anounced something today about coming and meeting somewhere potentially on The Middle on tariffs with Canada and Mexico because right now the levels are pretty extreme now it doesn't really matter what they announce because anything they announce is going to be higher than where we were before which is problematic because it continues that resentment and it continues that dead weight loss of government taxation especially on cars you know some cars uh that have a lot of parts made in Canada are seeing their prices rise as much as $122,000 on like an adk car you know that's just some of the viral stuff that's circulating right now a lot of that will probably get wound down but letnik suggested yesterday that Goods covered by NAFTA the old agreement before the usmca uh may be exempt as soon as Wednesday between the US Mexico and Canada but remember it's not just that we still have to deal with that taxes on Europe taxes on China counter tariffs on our agricultural industry from China counter tariffs from Canada and Mexico to whatever agreement we do come up with which will include some form of counterterrorist really you've got essentially a strong arm from Trump right now and even though the tariffs could get scaled back today it's still like it still feels like we're doing two steps back one step forward two steps back one step forward that's a lot of what it feels like at the moment so that leads to uncertainty in the economy right the Wall Street Journal editorial board says it's a bad time to add tariffs the economy is too weak best ENT says the stock market isn't the Focus right now getting yields down is the focus all right well a recession would do exactly that Canadian Premier Doug Ford urges people to stop buying American just cancel the deal with Starling I don't think musk really cares though because he's basically getting more deals with Starling with the US government nothing to see there uh and uh and so we'll see we'll see what happens but of course uncertainty is increasing at the moment because of all of this now uh some other things to think about or pay attention to is right now tariffs are on track to be at their highest level since World War II uh we still have to deal with uh tariffs on Autos coming semis pharmas the reciprocal tariffs you know the European Union vat tariffs we got to worry about that and so my take is that even if the trade War stabilizes within the next few months what you really need is the economy to hold up through them for things to be okay I do think the trade war will stabilize just like it did in 2018 but our eon was stronger in 2018 we had a job market and lower inflation that was capable of absorbing some level of shock the question now is Will new orders consumption retail sales discretionarily saying that as a way to try to manipulate the Trump Administration to go oh no breast bu is advertising that they're raising prices because of us yeah we don't care that's part of kind of how I think the reaction goes I honestly don't think they pay attention to this because they have their they have their long-term game plan and it is possible that no more research is right in their long-term game plan includes a recession Target was down 3% on basically a flat forecast they did try to suggest that cold weather could affect them Al though you know also say that consumers are strapped under uh Financial pressures now the consumer is an interesting thing to keep an eye on because consumer sentiment is obviously rolling over and month over Monon uh consumer spending has plummeted but there's more than that the top 10% of Americans are responsible for 90% of spending so if you now all of a sudden have an extended period of a stock market downturn then the last group of Americans who are still spending money they're going to start cutting that's when you trigger the recession because that's how you get the play offs it's not great bottom 90% are expected to have already exhausted most of their savings now the 5year break even is actually still pretty high right now so markets are still pricing in pretty dang High inflation again if we have a recession that inflation evaporates really fast you want to destroy inflation instantly have a recession uh now rate cut expectations we're looking at now three price Cuts being priced in between now and January 2028 uh and when it comes to uh this this potential growth scare remember once people are bitten they're Twice Shy it's really hard for them to go from oh okay all right trade War's over cool I'll go back to spending once people start cutting it's a really hard uh uh you know it's really hard to transition from people back to spending now China China had the party meeting yesterday inflation Target 2% GDP Target 5% fine they want a lower rate over time they want to encourage local municipalities to acquire homes they want to lower down payments for home buyers even more uh they want to open up to other countries China I listened to their party meeting yesterday before the uh uh you know Trump joined session of Congress speech they are doing everything they can to grow that economy now I think if the United States goes into recession China is going to have big problems as well but until then you actually have a lot of deep seek momentum pushing Chinese stocks up I mean look at Baba's up 52% year to date 10 Cent's up 19% year to date and and a lot of Chinese stocks are doing really well because you've got a Chinese party that's basically like no we don't want tariffs we want to we want to take all the trade we can with open arms we will set up all the Partnerships we can we're going to stay out of Russia Ukraine as much as we can and we're just going to focus on our economy and cranking it's kind of smart yeah I got to hand it to the Chinese right now they are they are being pretty damn smart on the flip side we still have the risk of a government shutdown on March 14th the Senate technically needs 60 votes to prevent a government shutdown Democrats are demanding limits on uh Elon musk's power uh you know Democrats also have other demands like limiting uh Donald Trump's ability to cut from the federal government and as we saw yesterday Al Green got removed for disrupting Trump's speech because you've got some of some more protests than I've ever seen before inside of session of Congress I mean I don't think I've ever I think historically nobody's actually been ejected out of a joint session of Congress but I don't know because history gets a little murkier the further you go back but I certainly have never seen or heard of in history somebody getting booted I remember when uh somebody heckled uh Obama with you li you know they ended up getting sanctioned which sucks for them it's like a big slap in the face uh but um Al Green got kicked out by the sergeant of arms and staff that's that's rare you don't really see that Democrats also now holding up signs that on one side say false when Trump talks and on the other side say musk steals this is crazy which is where you also have to now the divisiveness is crazy right now you also have to look at and go so what are the effects of Tesla or or uh you know the effects of musk on Tesla well now Bloomberg is reporting that Tesla sales are down 76% in Germany uh among you know after um uh musk's involvement sort of in German politics and this is where I started thinking to myself my gosh you know it's not actually just because I feel this it's not actually just the people who are upset by musk's politics it's that if you don't go if you now go byy a Tesla you have to be worried about somebody keying your car because you own a Tesla so you know if somebody Keys your your wrapped car it could cost you four grand to fix it that sucks so now you have to be worried about crazy Vandal damaging your property because of mosque so you could be a Tesla supporter but actually be negatively affected uh as already an owner that sucks anyway uh okay continuing on here so some of the I'm just going to go through some of the more Curious things obviously Elon Musk was there there were some emotional parts of the speech great uh Trump blamed Biden for uh the prices of eggs getting out of the out of hand inflation getting out of hand all right the prices of eggs were Rising while Biden was still uh in office and a lot of this has to do with sort of bird flu and Aven you know issues but they've continued to rise after Donald Trump took office uh we let's say he says we want to balance the federal budget let me just look for some of the really big favorites here oh yeah uh tax cuts on every for everyone are on standby I'm doing you a big favor by saying if you don't vote for tax cuts people may never votee for you again that was an interesting line so anyway he's trying to push that through but remember that's probably going to come later this year we got to Kick the Can on the budget down the road first uh it talks about the gold card going on sale soon $5 million to buy yourself citizenship basically if you create jobs that's an interesting idea I actually I don't mind that so much I think maybe you could have different tiers of cards like you know get people in who want to bring in 500k you know and just maybe their processing time's a little longer I don't know uh it's it's an interest it's it's interesting I I don't I don't mind that that as much uh let's see here uh interest on cars made in America to be tax deductible so interesting because after the usmca so many car manufacturers started Manufacturing in Mexico and Canada and a lot of cars are manufactured in many different places the New York Times did a great piece on this where they're like so what actually constitutes a car made in America because there's like the Pieces come from all over you know a lot of American cars are like 30% American that would actually obviously be a win for Tesla though because you know we got the free mod in Austin Factory uh doubles down on tariff says they'll be a little disturbance but you're okay with that it won't be much well that's where I dispute that once you knock into a recession it's going to be hard says Ukraine reiterates that it's ready to sign a mineral deal basically he read off a letter uh that uh that that that they were going to work on a deal and that Russia is open to peace based on signals that Donald Trump is seeing this is all good I mean if we could actually end the disaster in Ukraine and with Russia and and now hopefully things can settle down with Israel although there are concerns that things might actually worsen because of um what you're seeing with Israel and Syria let's not even go there right now hey yeah maybe things can get better but right now I'll tell you uncertainties are running really really high data continues to worsen I hope it starts getting better and we don't know and because we don't no I just Advocate to my community because I think you know rather than people just just looking for like crazy one-sided uh political videos I I actually think y'all are smart people and you're looking for real data and real information and the everything that we've said here is real data real information where we differ might be on our opinion of what is going to come of all of this I'll be very clear the odds of a recession are rising I don't think I'm as bearish as BCA research but it certainly seems like it's more than a coin toss at the moment that we're going to go into a recession and so with that I I always encourage everyone make sure you're doing whatever you can to maximize the cash that you have and Investments that yield you cash obviously that'll be a plug for house hack it's not ready yet unless you're going accredited investor that's ready you could email us at staff at sorry IR house act.com but if you're non- accredited we're going to have that 5% yield coming as well for house investment hopefully within the next uh week and a half now it I I'm told we're very close but we're waiting for attorneys attorneys attorneys anyway thanks so much folks we'll see youall soon goodbye good luck
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