저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미국 경제지표(S&P 글로벌 제조업PMI 52.7, ISM 제조업 50.3, 지급가격 62.4, 신규주문 48.6, 애틀랜타 연은 GDPNow 실질GDP -2.8%)가 악화되고 있으며, 관세 선반영 수요와 수출 감소가 경기 둔화 우려를 키운다고 진단. 관세는 경제에 부담이며 철회 시 성장 회복 가능. 본인 의견으로 지금은 부채 투자(레버리지)를 피하고 비용을 줄이라고 권고하며, 장기 국채(TLT) 강세 견해를 유지. 변동성 확대에 대비하라는 메시지.
다듬은 글
hey the numbers that just came out are even worse than they were just a few days ago now in this video I want to take the emotion out of this and just be very matter OFA with what the data is I I will give you my opinion towards the end because I do think at least some of you value my opinion uh that's said if you don't that's okay you can cut out after that part or after we go through some of the data but let's start with the data because uh this morning we got S&P uh Global manufacturing numbers we got ISM Manufacturing numbers prices paid new orders employment numbers and then as a result of that the GDP now data updated so the GDP now data actually you know a week ago it was at positive uh 2.3% for GDP and uh this Friday we did a video where it fell down to one negative 1.5% right you saw that right here negative 1.5% we went from this sort of stable 2 and a half to 3% range uh then we fell to 1 1.2% well just updated again and now for today we're sitting at a real GDP estimate of Nega 2.8% now uh I'm going to give the same disclaimer about this before I go through some of the more granular data that we have here it's really important to remember that this Atlanta fed GDP data set is very volatile because they're just taking the most recent data sets and they're going to weigh those the highest so the most weight is on your most recent data in fact in my last recent in my last video I said hey you know we we can get one good report and it'll go from down to just straight up again but because we got another negative one it actually went deeper down that's a Delta flight holy crap it's actually it's right side up all right sorry bad jokes everybody's okay every's okay I maybe too soon anyway sorry um uh so it's very sensitive and the fact that this next data set came out is uh and it's as negative as it is is why now we a 2.8 on the Atlanta fed real GDP now forecast now remember it's taking that latest data basically from February and applying it to the entire quarter so that's why you get these extreme moves cuz GDP we know it doesn't move that quickly uh quick note also you might be wondering why I'm here I am am really happy to share this but this is about to be I'm about to take off in this except I'm going to be flying it for the first time ever I got this for Christmas two years ago really cool uh still giddy about it but I'm actually going to be at the controls today which is kind of crazy uh and so I'm pretty stoked about that uh you know a lot of studying the flight manuals and emergency procedures and stuff but that means today uh I'll be sitting right here uh left seat and I'll be flying my own peeee it's kind of crazy yeah clean up these touch screens what is this that's the first thing I thought when I got in here I go come on bro I know they're touch screens but damn but anyway honestly I can't wait to do this oh that's kind of sick anyway uh okay I guess I just did it no but I want to I want to feel the horsepower uh at takeoff so at elevation you're looking at about probably about 2400 horsepower uh each you know the engines combin uh and at Cruise you're probably closer to like 9,600 horsepower it's a little different than cars and that these turbine engines are calculated with thrust and so velocity matters so you're obviously slower when you're on the ground than when you're up there anyway let's get into the data so uh S&P Global manufacturing this morning came in a little bit better than expected at 52.7 this was one of the contributors to the status set the survey was for 51.6 so hot in Florida too dang on the west coast of Florida it is beautiful out here but I need to be wearing Beach weather Beach attire out where are my short shorts here uh anyway uh bro try to make a movie over here I don't know if you can hear that but it's annoying to me so the manufacturing PMI actually came in better than I expected this morning which you think okay well that should be good right the problem was uh the S&P manufacturing report this morning said hey look you know manufacturing expanded uh things accelerated this was great however they basically asteris it they said there's some evidence that sector expansion was partly driven by Advanced purchases ahead of likely price increases and possible Supply disruptions related to Future tariffs in positions in the coming month uh new work Rose to the greatest degree in a year with firms pointing to a stronger market for demand for their goods in February but growth was primarily driven by client restocking with customers reportedly ke to get ahead of higher prices and possible Supply challenges International demand remained a noticeable drag however on the overall order books with new export sales dropping in February for a 9th month in month in a row and to the greatest degree since last November now that's really interesting because you've got to kind of piece this together for a moment the last GDP decline that we got was in part because of a lack of exports to other countries so that continues in this S&P report so that continues to be a drag that we're exporting less to other countries that could be again that punishment or that boycotting that we're seeing Canada Mexico and otherwise right but in addition to that the only good news the reason we're beating is simply because companies are trying to pull forward or get in front of tariffs so tariff uncertainty is creating some some real oopsy doopsy now this wasn't really the bad stuff the the next status set was even worse but before we hit that next status set I want you to see for a moment this is the economist I'm going to be clear here and remember we're we're starting with just the the data and the facts okay The Economist does not like Donald Trump that doesn't make them bad but they don't like Donald Trump uh America is at risk of a trumpian economic slowdown and as you read it beyond the noise a few themes stand out this I I scrolled past most of this for you I just want to give you the bottom line stuff again beyond the noise a few themes stood out a stand out and they mostly hint at an intensification of worries in the coming months even if Trump again delays imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico which are due to take effect tomorrow just like he didc just like he did a month ago he seems determined to raise tariffs on friends and foes alike a more aggressive Lurch towards protectionism than during his first term as higher prices weigh on consumption and Manufacturing his tariffs could Lop off a percentage point from America's growth rate according to Analyst at Morgan Stanley measures of uncertainty about trade policy have spiked higher meaning businesses May restrain from making Investments this is what we talked about in the last video that when people start pulling back on wanting to make investments they stop spending as much money on there you go they stopped spending as much money on uh on some of those durable goods new cars new fridges kitchen remodels and honestly this we're going to go back to some data here because we got a lot of data that came out this morning I'm just trying to break it up and i' like to be very clear when it's my opinion okay so this next part here is my opinion and then right back to the data this morning course members asked me oh Kevin you know should we get a home equity line of credit should we invest that into stocks or whatever I said look I'm not anyone's personal financial adviser my take is that at this point in where we are in the economy I I don't feel comfortable saying anybody should have debt in the stock market I'm not saying go run and hide and sell everything just why would you take on extra debt now if you wanted to take on debt to have optionality when the market crashes that if it does we don't know that it will maybe that could be cool you know I remember during Co mind you like I want to be Mr by the dip I feel like I was the definition of by the dip I mean at the YouTube song Right meet Kevin by the dip like I feel like I was the definition of by the dip and this is why people like oh Kevin's a flip-flopper well no it's just because I honestly have concerns right now and and I I just feel wrong saying yeah yeah you know take on debt and go buy the de dip I've got a lot of people in retail right now uh who hit me up oh reverse rusters nice a lot of people in retail right now they're like oh but you know Kevin I want to get leaps I want to get Tesla leaps you know 12 24 months out I want to get you know Palante your leaps or whatever and then I say okay you know how how how's your valuation looking on them and they're like what do you mean it it you know it was read for three days in a row I just want to buy leaks and I'm like all right that makes me nervous you know when when everybody's still at the mindset of like yeah man we got to get some leaps I'm like oh no no no so that's my opinion okay we're going to go back to data in just a second but my take is don't don't take on debt right now avoid just don't go buy that Sprinter van don't go do the kitchen remodel okay uh like minimize your expenses right now uh like you know I just became a pilot I'm instrument rated uh I'm multi-engine rated and I'm getting type certified so I can fly this I'm like I'm becoming aware of things I just was never aware of before as a pilot but I'm looking I'm like what y'all charged me $700 to update the damn databases you know how easy that is I'll do it myself and it's not because like oh I I'm desperate for the $700 but it's because I'm like what am I paying you to do you know to take out Garmin pilot on the iPad and hit update when when I can do that why am I paying you $700 to do that uh that's insane you know that's two times a month that's $350 a time that's insane and my my belief is that a lot of people are going to start doing that a lot of people are going to start you know looking at their bank statements and going the why you been paid for this cancel that cut that cut that cut that it's the economic cycle very rarely goes from uh expansion to hyper expansion to slowdown to hyper expansion right you you kind of have to continue the circle you have to go through a downturn before you can get back to expansion so I'm not saying that's definitely going to happen I'm just saying I'd rather be prepared for any externality right with house hack my real estate startup I would rather be in a place where it's like hey if if the market crashes and we can go bottom feed fix uppers and help people with affordable rentals we'll do that if the economy keeps going cool we got strategies for that too but we're not going to go bankrupt you know uh so anyway uh look at the data that came out this morning uh so that was the 645 data then at 7 we got uh construction spending survey was Nega .1% we got Nega .2% not a big deal ISM Manufacturing same thing with the pull forward we got 50.3 it was actually a Miss versus the 50.7 here we go prices paid 62.4 versus the survey of 56 so stagflationary right not good ISM new orders okay so people are trying to get all their existing orders in but then what's happening with new orders which is more forward looking survey says 54.6 the last read 55.1 this read 48.6 yeah that was a pooper and so when you actually look at it here you go February 2025 manufacturing what do we have manufacturing activity okay the new orders index dropped back into contraction uh after expanding for 3 months so in other words it expanded you know after people were getting excited about Donald Trump right now it's back into contraction just like crap that's not good uh I don't I don't want to be in a contractionary market right like I'm telling you I want to be the bull uh but anyway uh the February production index is 1.8 percentage points lower than January's figure uh the new orders index was 6.5 percentage points lower uh than what was recorded in January prices index surged further into the expanding territory of 7.5 percentage points from where it was in January suppliers index indicated further slowing of deliveries however and indications that demand weakened including included that new orders drop back into contraction new export orders uh expanded at a slower rate so in other words there's that export hit again the new orders are slowing down backlog of new orders was still in contraction uh so in other words people are like all right give me what I ordered and then I'm done and then you get this talk here although tariffs did not go into Force don't go into Force until mid-march spot commodity prices have already risen about 20% okay now now we have some more data so this explains why we're seeing some of the poopy doopy now what do we do with this information are we definitely screwed no absolutely not we're definitely not definitely screwed we're may be screwed but we're definitely not definitely screwed does any of that makes sense I don't know anyway so what does this actually mean for us well what this actually means means is Wall Street is going to become hyper Vigilant and responsive to data now and I think basically when you get these data sets if you're not paying attention not to what the fed's saying but to every single one of these data sets you're going to get blindsided on your trades because you're going to go oh man the alos are are ruining my trades again well no du because they're programmed to this data so the second the data comes out expect volatility and if you're not expecting volatility after the data comes out it's an oopsy doopsy now all of this could turn around like Donald Trump could by the way you know why they put the stop sign so low y'all know I'm really good with stop signs so is that guy anyway you know why the he was coming from the other direction anyway you know why the stop signs are so low so you can fly over them uh while you're taxi but anyway what this means is we it's not the FED talking that matters it's paying attention to the continuity of this STA and if Donald Trump flips and says you know what forget it cancel all the tariffs like he did the last time yes we could go back into expansion but here's what you really need to go back into expansion look at this we got hay or it's actually grass and a taxi light what you really need to go back into expansion is kill these damn tariffs okay tariffs are a dead weight loss they're a Bad Thing economically I don't like it I don't like tariffs okay I get it I get while they're doing it we had a little bit of a debate in the comment section the other day I understand okay the whole idea of oh trade deficits are bad is that it hurts American manufacturers yes it does but it actually benefits American consumers because when we can order better stuff cheaper from other countries that is deflation for American consumers which is what we want okay am I going to pay three grand for a German MAA dishwasher that's really hard to get service for or am I going to get uh 4 $99 dishwasher made by GE comes with a warranty and it's made in Mexico it does the same damn thing it makes your dishes clean okay that's a form of deflation now of course Donald Trump's going to say but that's bad for American manufacturers okay then go figure out how to get the unions to pay wages that are even competitive to what you could pay for in Mexico Oh wa you can't because people in Mexico are earning $3.50 an hour at these manufacturing facilities and union workers in America are making $35 an hour so it's a $10 it's a 10x difference so it's like oh well you know Americans should support American that's fine then pay higher prices you could also pay German if you wanted to and pay ripoff prices like that that's the the free market will send manufacturing where it is cheapest to do so it's it's it's a very simple easy game so this idea that you know a trade deficit is bad is is yes it's bad bad for union workers and manufacturers but it's great for people who are consuming uh maybe I'm just bitter because these turbines right here I'm not really bitter about this I just think it's funny uh it's a reference see these turbines right here you know where those suckers are from Canada I don't want tariffs on this you know how much the tariffs are going to cost me on that whatever it I always say listen tell me what the rules are and I'll follow the rules but I would make the argument that just blatantly if we really want to go back to growth stop the tariffs stop the count I mean the tariffs after you stop the tariffs then you need something that actually supports the economy you need some throttle right even the economists said it here because the first thing that you had was uh for tariffs hurt right but the thing that was supporting the economy after Donald Trump won was hope but right now I made this analogy my remember live stream this morning I made this argument that we're it's sort of like we're on a plank okay so imagine I'm on a boat and and there's like a a plank coming out of this but it's like a rickety Dicky Plank and you're standing on it and it's like wobbly and underneath you are a bunch of stag bites or sharks I don't know whatever floats your boat I guess uh like we're on a shaky platform and tariffs hurt it's like somebody threw a bag of like coal at you and you're holding it and now you're on the plank with all this extra weight like come on man I still have faith in you bro but it's getting a little hard to stay up over here really what you need is Trump to go let's take the coal off okay and then let's walk you back to like good land and let's give you some tax breaks okay that's now all of a sudden you could get back to growth because that's what people have been anticipating but if you're out there holding coal he's like nah man we're going all in with the Terrace things are going to get worse before they get better sorry bro you're like I don't know how much longer I can keep this what about the tax breaks next year bro dude I can't I can't handle this for a year you fall into recession okay so what the underlying economy has already not been that good you know I was just reading I think it was was it it wasn't credit agrial it was somebody this morning finally cuz the institutions they've been so everything's fine and I'm like man y'all just are you not looking at the underlying data and then I finally saw a piece oh it was Academy security uh this morning they wrote uh the economy is not as good as current data suggests and they talk again about uh the Bureau of Labor Statistics and how you know broken some of their measures are uh we're waiting for headlines from the zalinski War uh you know the Russia zalinsky issue uh we're waiting for tariffs we don't know what to make of this art of the deal thing we don't know what to make of jobs data that's coming out this Friday the jobs data this Friday is supposed to be good like 100 60,000 jobs or whatever but what if we get a bad report you know these are just things that that people are going to be nervous about so where is the economy headed Nobody Knows the economy will be more difficult with uh what is this let's see finally what we've seen on Equity away from the Russell 2000 so away from small caps no dub has been more about oh okay all right yeah yeah yeah no problem okay sorry uh stupid thing just died but I read it all earlier they basically like more away uh people are moving in stocks away from some of the risk right the smaller caps deem to be a little bit more risk going a little bit more into credit quality personally and this is my personal not I'm still a TLT bull I know that i' I've been bullish on TLT since July I know it it it had done very poorly because of uh Donald Trump's uh Victory and then the FED cutting rates uh 100 basis points leading TLT to go up or I'm sorry bond yals to go up a th 100 basis points because that makes a lot of sense but anyway um you know I think it we're getting closer to where it makes sense where it's like yeah if we get any kind of shock TLT could be going straight to the moon so those those TLT January 2026 and January 2027 options are still looking pretty Juiced in my opinion uh but you know that's my opinion so I want to be clear data versus opinion here so what's the bottom line of all this the bottom line out of all of this frankly is we don't know but times are uncertain that's obvious uh and I think it calls for being cautious now I understand some people are going to look at me and go oh but Kevin you know if everybody who listens to you Cuts then we're going to self- fulfill a recession I mean I don't think everybody's going to listen to me uh and that's fine but I told my course members this morning I want to be in a place where everybody you know who who watched my content and said you know what I'm going to make the right decision get get out of Deb or minimize my debt minimize my downside exposure this is hard to do with one hand um they they survived the recession or or even just tumult it's hard to do with one H whatever it is they survived that's that's what I want because I don't I don't want to see people get uh I understand there are hopes for like oh but if we YOLO in now you know we could make big dollar hollas or whatever okay but you know look at Warren Buffett I know it's it's hard to when things are booming but the thing about Warren Buffett is he protected that downside and I think we'd all be wise to actually look at some of this data and say look can it all rock it back up yeah and remember the conditions for it reducing this trade War minimizing some of the G political tension though that's not as big of a deal minimizing the trade War would help and then actually getting some of these tax cuts going so far even as The Economist said things are a little chaotic we don't oh that's a serious taking off we don't know where we are with Great Planes by the way people call them the Rolls-Royce of uh single prop planes or just prop or you know smaller planes in general but anyway we don't know where we're going with terrorists we don't know where we're going with geopolitics again Terrace is much more of an issue because of that pull forward of demand you're getting that up in demand uh now you're getting this sort of realization of down people are taking their orders and they're done people are complaining about who's going to pay for the tarff blah blah blah blah uh and then where do we go from there well then it turns into okay are people ready to spend like they're super optimistic now it's time for people to put their money where their mouth is and so far we just haven't been in a place where people are willing to put their money where their mouth is because everybody's waiting uh anyway so I hope that helps you we'll see you on the next one goodbye good luck everyone uh really appreciate you all supporting the channel consider subscribing see you soon bye
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