저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
애틀랜타 연은 GDPNow 실질GDP 추정치가 2.3%에서 -1.5%로 급락했으나, 이는 1월 PCE 등 가계지출 데이터 외삽에 따른 것으로 정부지출 문제가 아니라고 주장. 순수출 급감(관세 보복 영향)도 원인. 머스크의 GDP 정의 비판. 관세·무역적자·트럼프-젤렌스키 회담의 파급효과를 짚음. 3개월 내 경기침체 확률은 언급하나 단정은 피하고, 내구재 소비 위축 시 6~7개월 후 고용 악화를 우려하며 큰 지출 자제를 조언. 데이터 변동성이 커서 조기 판단은 이르다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Wow, current estimates of real gross domestic product have fallen sharply. You may have heard of it before, but you may not have heard the data that actually goes into this metric and what actually drives this performance. Because if we look at the chart, we see that the gross domestic product fell from 2.3% to -1.5%.
However, there are a few really important points you need to understand when it comes to how this data is put together. This will give you a much better idea of what this data actually means. And that's my goal on this channel —to always give you a deeper understanding of how these things actually work.
This way, you are not misled by irrelevant noise. Now, I want to mention a few things in this video. Later in the video we will talk about Trump and Zelensky. We'll talk about some of Wall Street's reactions to this, but I just want to point out that people are spreading this GDP picture right now, and I think most people don't really understand what goes into it.
But, given Elon Musk, keep in mind, and this is not a criticism of Elon Musk, but let's just clarify. Elon Musk wrote that a more accurate measure of GDP would be to exclude government spending. Good. I quote... tweeted this , and to be honest, I probably just want to minimize how I tweet because I just can't use Vivek Ramaswamy jokes on Twitter.
Uh, I'm much more of a person who likes details and nuances. You know, that's why I quote... tweeted it and said, let's change the definition. I've heard that before. This is essentially alluding to...and then I went on and elaborated...uh, when the Joe Biden administration essentially said, "Hmm, two quarters of negative GDP in Q1 2022 and Q2 2022 ?" No, this is not a recession.
The labor market is too strong." To their credit, the job market was strong back then. He's not so great now. We are teetering on the edge of glory. That is, we are still on the verge of glory, but we can fall from it. But anyway, it certainly led to some people saying, " Oh, Kevin, you just hate Elon Musk." No, I'm just trying to provide facts when I see that even Elon Musk misunderstands what he's saying.
So, first of all, the reason this line fell is not because of government spending. Even if it was only about 11.3% of the Atlanta Fed's real GDP, the data actually comes from government spending. Now there are side effects, right? When the government spends money wastefully, yes, other sectors of the private markets take that money, essentially through contracts or something, and then they can hire people and spend, right ?
So this is a way in which you can have side effects, um, government spending as a share of GDP. And that's what some people are saying , some economists are saying, that 11.3% of government spending could actually contribute about half of GDP or a whole half of GDP, which is a lot. But that's not really why this line fell.
And I think that's again a fundamental misunderstanding that Elon Musk took a screenshot and then, without actually looking at the detailed data, because you could literally scroll down on the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow page and go to the detailed data and find out, "Hey, like, what's this data actually made up of?" And what you'll see, if you actually do that, is that the important things that come into the latest data are related to retail spending and personal income.
That's because we just got the PCE data. Why is this important, especially for Elon? Well, that's important because personal income estimates for January were 0.4%. Well, actually they were 0.9%, which is really good. This means that people had more income than economists expected in January. This doesn't necessarily mean you received more income, it just means that, en masse, people received more in January than economists thought.
However, spending in January ran into a problem. We expected spending to increase by 0.2% without adjusting for inflation, but it actually fell by -0.2%, and adjusted for inflation, we expected it to fall by -0.1%. In fact, they fell by -0.5%. Why is this a problem? Because the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's real GDP indicator works in such a way that it tries to extrapolate the latest data to tell you how fast we're moving at this very moment.
So, in my opinion, he's not the best at telling you, "Oh, sure, that's going to be GDP for the whole quarter." Instead, he takes this last set of data, eagerly awaits this last set of data, and says, "Okay, if this data keeps coming in like this for the entire quarter, GDP will be negative." In other words, the PCE data that came out only reflects January.
That was bad. And they quarter them. So instead of annual recalculation, they are quarterly. This is strange. But in any case, they are quartering them. So, they take...Okay, the January data was nonsense, multiply it by three, and then we get the current leading indicator, in their opinion, the leading indicator.
I don't think this is a leading indicator of what GDP might be for the quarter. So, to put it simply , you had several data sets that had nothing to do with government spending . PCE does not take into account government spending. It takes into account household expenditures and household income. Okay, sorry, PCE, right ?
I want to make sure I said it right. Maybe I said it right. In any case, PCE does not take into account government spending. It takes into account household spending. This is data that came in badly. This is the data that led to this giant drop right here. Now Elon Musk is tweeting that, well, you know, maybe we should just eliminate the government.
It would n't change anything. But then again, I...And it annoys me because I...I've always admired Elon. I always thought of him like, well, man, you're doing such great things for, you know, the world, electric cars and solar roofs, solar panels, space mission, Starlink. These are such wonderful things.
But I don't know what's happening to him. I think he's just becoming an angry person on Twitter. X. So, I think what's happening to him is similar to what's happening to him when it comes to engineering, he's really trying to get to first principles. But when it comes to politics, it's not first principles, it's first reaction, right?
So it's like you have two different Elons. You have Elon's first principles and Elon's first reaction . And Elon's first reaction is a decrease in GDP? Wow, that's because we're cutting government spending so much. That's because we do such a great job at the Department of Energy. Maybe they should change how they calculate it.
It's like no. First, it is highly debatable how much money you actually save at the Department of Energy. And I'm not here to criticize the US Department of Energy. I just want to argue that at this point it is very debatable how much money is actually being saved. Isn't that right ? Elon's income wall is $55 billion.
If you look at the revenues and sum them up, it comes out to 16 billion. When you consider which of these contracts actually create real savings and which are simply open credit card limits that some of these contracts have, it is questionable how much money is actually saved. So I want the U.S. Department of Energy to succeed, but I think if Elon is so focused on first response, it actually overshadows his ability to do his job in policy, because, let's be clear, he does his job in policy.
So what also contributed to the drop in this Fed's first quarter GDP estimate? Well, it was n't just personal spending that fell from 2.3 to 1.3 in the quarter, according to some January data, but it was also, listen to this, a delicious, delicious cough. And this, to be honest, shouldn't surprise you either.
The next data set is a really critical data set, and it will expand on the next part of this video, where we can dig deeper into Trump, Zelensky, and some of the other implications of what's happening, with a potential new world order. This is all important business, but first a message from our video sponsor.
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Use this link below. Okay, we know that PCE was one of the factors that led to the decline in GDP in the first quarter, but what else, uh, is driving that estimate down so far? Well, it's a sharp drop in net exports. Net exports fell from -0.4%, uh, you know, in previous estimates to -3.7%. And again, we take the data for January and extrapolate it to the quarter.
So we are potentially extrapolating more bad data. But what could be contributing to this decline in net exports? Well, remember, tariffs affect the things we import. This is essentially a tax we impose on imports, right? So if you want to import, uh, you know, a German- made screwdriver because you're really curious about how a German screw works, then you're going to pay an additional tax, according to Trump.
We don't really know yet what... I mean, but it's probably going to be an additional 10-15% for the reciprocity of this whole VAT thing, you know, the value-added tax that Europe has, and blah blah blah. Okay, whatever . So, in that case, what happens? Why should net exports fall? Well, it's in the nature of retaliation.
Our import of screwdrivers from Germany does not affect net exports, but the Germans are angry that their product is now less competitive . Canadians are angry. The Canadians even cancel Wayne Gretzky because, you know , he wore a certain red hat. Uh, and, you know, potentially some companies in Mexico want to express their frustration with America.
Fewer purchases from Mexico, Canada, Germany, Europe, our main trading partners. This reduces our net exports. Trudeau is gaining popularity now. He was at the lowest point in his popularity, having resigned as leader of his party until they could find someone else. I wouldn't be surprised if its popularity is growing now, which it already is.
Uh, but what he ends up staying for is because He became something like, "No, we're not going to support the US trying to, you know, drag us through the coals." And then, of course, people object and say, "Oh, but Kevin, you know , we've had a trade deficit with these other countries for so long, they're just dragging us through the coal." But the problem is that Donald Trump or the Trump administration has never really explained why trade deficits are bad.
I...I...will leave one option for you to consider. And maybe you can make a list of comments below, and that's fine. We can argue about that, but my argument is , have you ever heard Donald Trump explain why trade deficits are bad? No. A trade deficit is not inherently bad. Yes, there are some side effects, but wait a minute.
You would think the Trump administration would have phrased this a little better. The reason they don't do it is because all they have to do is say, " We have a high trade deficit. " “And people just hear about high debt. Debt is bad. Okay, but there are also pros that arise from a high trade deficit.
So you need to weigh that. It's not just high debt, is it? That means we trade more of our goods, uh, or excuse me, uh, we import more of other people's goods and export less of our own, but that's what Donald Trump is trying to equalize, but sometimes when a larger economy needs to import more goods and services, we just naturally have a trade deficit.
But in any case, we don't need to get so caught up in the trade deficit debate . What's more important here, I think, is that you also have a whole set of institutions that are still, essentially, hopefully sucking the life out of the Trump administration . Here is an article by T. S. Lombard that discusses the Trump recession.
And interestingly, they don't actually believe there will be a Trump recession. They claim that Trump would be willing to accept maybe a year-long recession, and that could help them, maybe.” normalize some of the expenses that occur in the fiscal plan. But when you actually look at their document, it turns out they're saying, "No, it's still okay.
Private spending will explode. The mood is okay. The labor market is still expansionary. Everything is fine. "Everyone panics over little things." But again , I've made this argument repeatedly that, you know, these institutions like TS Lombard are obviously forgetting that the labor market is the last thing to turn around, which is quite problematic .
So now you actually have current quarterly data that is deteriorating. Elon Musk misunderstands that this actually has nothing to do with government data. This is due to households spending less money, but, you know, whatever. It's Mr. First Reaction versus Mr. First Principle. Uh, then we have a lot of outrage about the possibility of tariffs being imposed in just 2 days against Mexico and Canada.
It is expected that the corresponding tariffs will be announced in the near future. The stock market certainly had some lag last week, but we still saw some recovery on Friday. The question now is where do we go next? Well, at least that's what I've seen in the last 48 hours since that meeting, if I may say so.
Some people think this was all staged and it's like a show, uh, but, uh, between the meeting between J.D. Vance, Donald Trump, and Zelensky, uh, you know, people were asking Kevin, you know, what do you think about this, and I'll just go with what I think. I don't think what we saw, uh, should be unexpected.
This is how Donald Trump operates. This is Donald Trump's version of negotiations, conversations, uh, and arguments that he has all the cards and his opponent doesn't. This is Donald Trump's version of chaos. This is the position of power from which he likes to negotiate. And I think the voters already knew in a way that this was the person they wanted in this position, and I think that's why you have a lot of Trump supporters saying, "This is true.
"Yes, someone finally attacked Zelensky." You know, but then you have the other half, you know, of Americans who say, “I don’t know, man. It looked quite disrespectful. It seemed like, you know, we potentially lost an alliance there, or how do we fix that?” Well, and well, I think that's why you now have these consequences of Zelensky immediately going to London for an emergency meeting in the EU .
It wouldn't surprise me that the EU is also quite disappointed with, you know, Trump's tariff potential right now. Sorry . Well, it's entirely possible that as a result you'll have some kind of new European coalition , uh, that essentially unites and potentially helps Ukraine on its own, and I know a lot of Americans are saying, " It would be fantastic if we could save all the money." Eh, but then we also create more outrage among the Europeans, and then it makes us wonder if we're going to get more potentially matching tariffs to our tariffs in return, because, you know, everything has a side effect, right?
We are helping Ukraine less, Europe should help them more, they are more embittered, and suddenly it has side effects for us. What they will be, one can only guess. So, uh, everything is, as always, much more complicated and nuanced in reality than people like to show, especially if you flip to X, which again is where I just don't want to post anything else because, well, look at that.
This is a 20-minute video to try to discuss this, but people often look for something like Vivek Ramaswamy's one-liner. It's like: well , where's the nuance here? There is much more here. So , okay, here we are, Elon Musk was on the Joe Rogan show again for 3 hours. Started watching this and you get a lot of...Um ...We'll save my review of this for the next video.
But let's think practically for a moment. Do we think real GDP will fall into recession in the first quarter? Um, it's impossible to know, but I wouldn't be surprised if some of the next data sets we get bring that number back to positive, and probably back to positive GDP very quickly. I think these data sets are very volatile when they come out, especially in times of change.
We just had a change of administration, so I think it's very likely that there will be a lot of ups and downs in this data set. And because we're going to get ups and downs in these data sets, like the GDP figure right now , we're going to have constant news about , oh, look where the line is now. Look where the line is now.
Look where the line is now. This volatility is simply a natural reaction to the new presidential administration, and frankly, to a lot of changes, especially on tariffs. So we'll see. I don't really think the government cuts or federal job cuts have really affected our economy because keep in mind most of these voluntary layoffs that have been done are done, with the exception of probationary employees who are simply being laid off.
Um, voluntary layoffs are people who are still getting paid until September. So you may not see their economic impact or cost reduction. I think it will happen by the summer, because I think these people who are voluntarily leaving immediately try to start looking for another job. And they won't really start to get nervous until May, June, July, when they'll say, "Oh my God, my paycheck stopped coming in September, and I still don't have a job." That's when I think the panic will start, and that's when you'll probably take the biggest negative hit on personal spending.
But, I mean, remember, personal expenses–it's not just government employees, it applies to everyone. And one of the first things in personal spending that starts to shrink before a recession is durable goods spending groups. So, it will be cars. Uh, it's washing machines , dishwashers, you know, the bigger things that you buy, you know, renovating your house, your kitchen, or I wouldn't buy any of that right now.
I would highly advise people to save money now. Uh, and just wait and see what happens over the next 6 months. You can always buy yourself a new kitchen. Do you really need a new kitchen now? No. Do you really need a new car right now? Probably not. So, the people who are being pushed back into the labor market are not the strongest yet.
They will spend the most . And, uh, it's going to have negative consequences eventually, because when a lot of people start to get nervous and stop spending money, then businesses are going to see their numbers go down. They feel it not only in lower revenues but also in margins because they can no longer raise prices, and then layoffs happen.
And when you already have a relatively weak economy, uh, at a point where the Federal Reserve refuses to provide any projections for the future, you probably already have enough signals that things are unstable right now . That's why I like to use data . I don't want to make a video where I say, "Oh, a recession is definitely coming." Is there a high probability that a recession could occur?
Of course. But I just like looking at the data. And, you know, if I just wanted to clickbait and not give you what I think is the exact meaning , I could just say, "Oh my God, look, we're going into a recession." Well, no, the Atlanta Fed's estimate of real GDP won't give you that right now. We need much more data to actually confirm this information.
So it's too early to say anything. In any case, I hope this perspective was helpful to you. If you like this perspective, just subscribe to the channel and I will continue to provide you with valuable content. Thank you very much for watching. See you next time. Goodbye. Good luck.
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