저자: RickyGutierrez · 외국인
요약 보기
AMD가 72% 급등해 실적발표(화요일 장후)를 앞둔 상황. 발표 이전 진입은 위험하다고 경고하며 리스크 계산기 활용을 권함. 주가가 과매수이고 P/E가 높아 조정 가능성이 있으나, 강세 심리와 모멘텀이 살아있어 단기 추가 상승도 가능하다고 봄. 과거 실적 발표 후 10회 중 1회만 상승. 장기 투자자로서는 조정 시 매수 기회를 노리고 레버리지는 피하라고 조언.
다듬은 글
So, is AMD a good stock to invest in before it reports earnings? What's going on, guys? It's Ricky with Tech Solutions, and don't worry, I do still plan to go live later today for our Sunday stock talk right around 6:30 p.m. Arizona time. But, one stock that we need to talk about is AMD. I'm getting a lot of questions about it because it was a company that I made a video about when it was trading at sub $200 per share just a month ago.
I talked about it being a company that was trading at a fair value based off of its competitors, and I saw some upside. I saw some upside based off of the long-term play, not a trade, right? It wasn't a day trade. It wasn't even intentionally being a swing trade. But, now that it ran up, I think it's 72% and it's about to report earnings from 196, not even the lowest price level, 84% actually.
Uh, but I think in the past 30 days it's right around 70%. Is it a good investment? And how can you determine this yourself? Now, again, for those that don't know, the reason we're talking about it right now is that, first off, AMD reports earnings on Tuesday after the market closes. It doesn't matter what it is that I say in the sense of obviously, I'm going to talk about AMD being overbought.
I'm someone that's invested in AMD long-term, but it doesn't mean that I have to be, you know, encouraging people that are just getting started to buy at what can be viewed as elevated levels. Uh, and I think a very simple way that you can kind of like weigh out if it's worth it is, first, to understand your trading or investing style.
Are you conservative? Are you a little bit more on the riskier side of things? But, also market sentiment. Like, I can see why someone could entertain the idea of wanting to go long on AMD, even though it is, technically speaking, I think anyone can acknowledge this. It is overbought, but it's so incredibly bullish.
And markets can stay irrational longer than you can say solve in the sense of trying to short this, right? It definitely wouldn't make sense in my opinion to short it as there's no indication of a resistance just yet. But one tool that I would love to encourage you to test out, you let me know down in the comment section.
On our homepage, we created for LPP, we created um a risk calculator. It's free. I don't even ask you for your email on this site. I wanted to make sure that regardless if you are part of my LPP team or not, that you are actually calculating your trades before you take them. I feel like a big mistake that a lot of beginners make is that right when they take a trade and let's say things go south as it happens, there's no such thing as a perfect trader or investor, they're surprised by either how much money they lost or how quick it happened.
Why? Because they didn't have a plan. This is a simple tool where again, you can pick one of the MAC 7 companies if this is something that you want to choose or maybe it's AMD, right? So let's use AMD as an example. Let's say that you do want to go long at right around 360. What's your plan, right? Do you think that from 360, can it hit $400 per share, right?
$400, where would you cut losses? If it breaks below the EMA line, there's a break of structure. That's right around 330 to 333, right? So let's say that the gold entry right now is right around 360. Your stop loss like we said is 333. Uh and then the gold target price is 400. Right off the bat, I'm going to load this into the calculator and then I'm going to put, you know, well, whatever number of shares it is that you want.
I have a default of 100, but you can change it to again, realistically, whatever it is you actually intend to buy. The thing that you can see very quickly is that right off the bat, it says your risk to reward ratio isn't very favorable. It's relatively low. Your potential for profit max with 10 shares is $400.
Your potential for loss is 270. Visually speaking, would you take this trade knowing that your potential for profit is not much greater than your potential for loss?" Well, no, right? It's like the risk-to-reward just isn't worth it. It's It's not a very lucrative opportunity. You could, you know, say that, "Okay, well, direction and sentiment are really in my favor.
So, although the ratios aren't necessarily super favorable, sentiment is, and that is more important to me." And you have every right to approach it however it is that you see to be fit. But the biggest thing is, are you understanding the risk that you are about to take? That is what I'm at least like It's It's stepping stones when you're just getting started.
And I would rather have a beginner understand the risk that they're about to take, the price that they could possibly pay if this trade goes south. Cuz I think one of the worst feelings is feeling like you got robbed on a trade when it went south because you didn't really understand how much you had, you know, as a potential loss when it came down to where you plan to cut losses or maybe losing more than what you feel comfortable.
And with this, you can kind of play around with it. Um and if again, you want to reset it, then you can just reset the filter here. But like I said, it's the second link in the description down below. It will take you to our homepage. Just scroll down, and it's going to be under the risk calculator.
Again, we don't even ask you for your email. I want you to use this, and I would love your feedback. What would you like to see added to it, or is it fine, or, you know, anything. Really anything or any tools that you think that we should offer to make it, you know, more efficient and also more intentional for a beginner to take a trade.
I would love that. Now, the thing that I want to now talk about is I wanted to talk about planning the trade, making sure that the next few trades you choose to take, hopefully this week, that instead of just guessing, just imagine you actually taking time to plan them out. That's the first goal. The second thing is, well, what the heck is going on with AMD?
I mean, it's all these semi companies, right? And they're they're on a rally right now, and it doesn't look like, at least not yet, there is no trigger that's stopping them. And a lot of these companies are reporting better than expected earnings. We have to give credit where it's due. If we head on over to Investing Pro, I pulled up AMD.
The part I that I like about Investing Pro is that it allows me to understand the company more fundamentally. Again, it's not that AMD can't go higher. It's just that it's trading at a relatively pretty high P/E ratio. It's not cheap. You're paying a premium. So, remember, it's like during an uncertain time, do you want to be paying a premium for something that could retrace?
I don't know, right? Like the risk becomes so much greater, in my opinion, at these elevated levels or at these elevated P/E ratios. Again, AMD is literally trading at all-time highs. Does this look like a cheap stock? In the short term, it can continue to pump, but will it hold at these elevated levels?
That's for you to decide. In my opinion, the simple answer is no, right? There's going to be some form of correction, and it's always overvalued stocks that correct the quickest. But, that doesn't have to happen this week. And that's what I'm here to remind you, right? It is a very well-run business.
Revenue is $34 billion. Net income, $4.3 billion. It makes more money, profit-wise, than Tesla, but it's not a max 7 company. I really like that. It's net income is increasing, its revenue is increasing, and if we click into the Pro Research, this is my favorite part about Investing Pro is that, hey, AMD is not just walking the walk, I'm sorry, talking the talk.
I'm 30 years old. I'm I'm old now. But, it's also walking the walk. The thing that I kind of respect about this is, again, don't get me wrong. It is trading at a premium. But, remember, as soon as these companies begin to disappoint, maybe if the revenue is not as impressive or if they begin to miss on specific sectors of their business, the growth of their cap spending begins to bring some uncertainty.
As soon as those disappointments begin to present themselves, that's when these overvaluations begin to get questioned. Kind of like we saw with Meta. But, until then, if AMD continues to deliver and blow it out of the water, respectfully speaking, it has every reason to continue to pump. Sentiment is incredibly bullish.
Momentum is in their favor. And there is no trigger to to cause a up pullback yet. It's not that it won't. Most likely will. And even based off of fair value, it says that there's 21.9% of potential downside. It's important to know this. I The reason I like Investing Pro is that I don't use it to try to find stocks that I need to invest or trade.
I use it as a software to make me aware of maybe why I don't want to. Let's be honest. Many of us should probably be trading a little less or investing less than overtrading, which I think is super important. Now, again, the thing that I do want to remind you is that as it reports earnings, what is it expected to report?
Very quickly, I want you to understand that the earnings per share expectation is 1.27, $1.27 um per share. And revenue expectation is nearly 10 billion, 9.85. Based off of the previous times that it reported earnings, a lot of you guys liked when I shared this. How does the market react the following day?
An 18% drop, a 1.2% drop, a 7.7% drop. So, out of the last 10 reportings, one was positive. Again, market sentiment is incredibly bullish. I have to be optimistic for the bull side of things. Now, again, if there's uncertainty that begins to inject itself into the market and begins to shift that sentiment, by Tuesday, that could be a different story with tensions that's happening in the Middle East um and or if the labor market or the inflation concerns begin to rise, right?
But, other than that, I really wouldn't be surprised if this stock does continue to push higher. Now, again, does this mean that you need to buy it right now? No, I I personally believe that for beginners, if that's what you are, I don't think trading earnings is going to be ideal. It's a very volatile time, very risky time.
My biggest thing is if you wanted to make more rational decisions for these larger companies, I would do it when markets are down or when there's uncertainty. And that's what we talk about at these elevated levels, just please, even if you decide to invest, just don't use leverage. So, if it does sell off, you don't get margin called and you don't lose more money than you actually have invested.
That's the biggest thing, right? If it ends up selling off, great. You have cash on the sidelines, hopefully, because you didn't over leverage yourself up here. Maybe you are invested, but you're not over leveraged. So, as it pulls back, you kind of get excited because you're like, hey, I can actually buy this very successful business that's growing and I see growth potential in the future for a better price, for a better deal.
Cuz again, that is what investing is. You're looking for deals, not overvalued stocks that can correct in the short term. In the short term, it can continue to pump. So, again, ask yourself, what is your intention? Is it to trade short term or is it to invest long term? And where does AMD currently sit?
Technically speaking, it's overbought in the short term. So, there is retracement potential if markets begin to correct. So, please just make sure you take that into consideration before going all in or over leveraging yourself during a time where markets can begin to shift. Again, we will be talking about this in a little bit more detail in today's Sunday stock talk, and it will be a live stream for free.
All you have to do is subscribe to tune on in. So, again, I hope to see you there. Hope that you're enjoying your thumbs up. Please consider and don't forget if you want to test out that risk calculator, it's the second link down below, and that also will give you access to learning more about our LP P team and our daily live session.
If you like Investing Pro and you like the software that we are using, that's the first link down below, and I think it breaks down to less than $10 a month. Like always, let's make sure that we end the year on a green note. Take care, team.
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