저자: RickyGutierrez · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼의 넷플릭스 투자 실패 사례(2022년 약 11억 달러 매수 후 40% 손실 매도)를 통해 포지션 사이즈 관리의 중요성을 강조. 넷플릭스는 현재 PER 23.8배, 애널리스트 적정가 대비 약 12% 상승여력이 있으나, 2분기 실적 쇼크(매출 성장 둔화, 8.58% 하락) 및 장기 하락 추세(낮은 고점·낮은 저점)를 근거로 신중 접근 권고. 실제 매수 추천은 아니며 리스크 관리 중심의 교육 콘텐츠.
다듬은 글
Bill Ackman just added a new stock to his long-term portfolio, so I want to break it down in more detail. How are you guys? This is Ricky. I hope you learn something new, and if so, . Many of you may or may not be familiar with Bill Ackman. Um, great investor, very famous. Did he perform at his best in 2026?
No. We'll talk about all the pros and cons, but I want to change the subject a bit , talk about something other than day trading. For my investors, maybe swing traders, to stretch their brains a little, not just limited to memory chip companies. Again, let me know in the comments if you like these videos.
If so, please like and subscribe if you think I deserve it. So, Bill Ackman revealed updated positions, right? You can see Netflix, Visa, MasterCard, if I'm not mistaken, it's MasterCard, yes. S&P Global, ICE, ALC, and these are all long positions. With that in mind, I'd like to talk about his history with Netflix.
We will only talk about Netflix. I'll use this as an example. Again , I'll talk about the pros and potential cons. I want you to share in the comments not only why you would want to invest in Netflix, but also if you have a specific reason why you don't like Netflix and what you think we should be worried about, if there are any problem areas.
I would be happy to know more in the comments. So let's get to it. The first thing I want to talk about is the history of Bill Ackman's relationship with Netflix, and I think a lot of beginning investors will understand that, right? Or even if you are experienced, it is a great reminder that everyone makes mistakes.
Some consider these large hedge funds invincible or market makers, but guess what? Again , there are conspiracy theories, and don't get me wrong, do I believe they have a lot of influence and a lot of power? Yes. But no one is 100% right, not even so- called market makers or large hedge funds. Bill Ackman and Netflix.
He first invested in Netflix in 2022 after the post-pandemic rally. At its peak of $350 a share, that was before the split, and he invested about $1.1 billion in Netflix. He sold everything at a 40% loss in a few months, losing 400 million. dollars. So, again, this is a tough blow. I want to use this to compare position size management for people like you and me.
First of all, 40% is a huge number. This, this is not just for us, but for anyone. 40% of a position is a big loss. 400 million is a lot of money. Well , you and I would be... I don't even know, right? I can't even comprehend it. With this in mind, position size management matters. Bill Ackman, for those who don't know, I wanted to use him as an example.
As for his portfolio, these are some of his biggest assets. And we will use Investing Pro as a tool for deeper fundamental analysis. If you want to do this with me, the first link is in the description below. You can download Investing Pro and work with me. So, I want to show you a little more about his position on Netflix.
If we go to the ideas section and find Bill Ackman, we can open his portfolio and see the overall results for 5 years, as well as the results for the last year, which are not the best. Again , I wanted to talk about it, but also show off his assets. His assets are 13, almost 14 billion dollars. So, these are his current assets.
If we look at the last 5 years, we take into account that big hit, because before it happened, he had about $10.3 billion. Again, I'm talking about this through position size management. $1.1 billion is a dream for you and me. That's the goal , right? But people often forget how much exposure this is for him, do n't they?
You can invest 10,000, 1,000, or 100,000, right? I do n't know how much you invested. I have the same thing , right? I am investing a certain amount of money. Sometimes when I open a position during a live trade and take a small position, say twenty- five thousand dollars, a newbie might see that and think, "Oh my God, twenty-five thousand dollars?
That's more than my entire account. Is that your small position?" Again , each of us has one hundred percent capital, but how you enter a position is very important. So even though he took a huge hit, forty percent, if you count from ten point three tenths of a billion dollars, then one point one tenth of a billion per share—that's still risky.
But again, position size management. One whole one tenth of ten whole three tenths— okay. Now it's a little over ten percent. What would that look like for you? Again, I'm not minimizing his mistake. His mistake is clearly still there , and it goes even further, because after he suffered those 40% losses, he invested in Google, which turned out to be successful for him .
But nevertheless , during the same time, Netflix grew by 650%. Again, during that precipitous decline, if I'm not mistaken, which happened in 2022, right? It's very easy to look back and say, yes, he sold at the worst possible time, and then the stock skyrocketed. How many of us have made such a mistake?
That's why I wanted to make this video, because even at the highest level, Bill Ekman, billions of dollars under management. I think his assets under management are actually closer to $20-30 billion. But if we talk about a specific portfolio, then at that time it was about 10 billion. We now have about $13-14 billion .
Given this, he sold at the worst possible time. It has grown by 600%. How many times have you made this mistake? Now, one thing that he shared that I think is important to take into account, but again, every investment, every deal, is different. He said at the time that the lesson he learned from that experience was that he felt better trusting his intuition and making decisions regardless of the outcome.
So, again, ultimately, you have to manage the risks and minimize them. And if at that very moment you are taking losses shortly after the stock takes off and goes against you, again , if you believe that the market makers are against you, then if it can happen to Bill Ackman, it can 100% happen to you, and not because anyone is against you.
No one is hunting your $5,000 or $10,000 position, right ? Maybe they were hunting him. That's another story. But for people like you and me , I don't want to say that we are not whole . But do you really think they're going to move billions of dollars in market cap if you buy shares to liquidate your $5,000 position.
Let's be realistic, shall we ? Focus on what you can control. Invest in quality companies when it makes sense. Sure, you could get a little greedy in 2022, right? There was very strong growth. He came in, again, to his defense with 1.1 billion. His account has over 10 billion under management, according to what we learned from Investing Pro.
And with that in mind, a 10-12% position is not the most aggressive, but obviously, having suffered a 40% loss on this position, we can always look back and think what could have been done better, right? Now that the price has fallen, it has seen that profit, rising to highs of 134 after the split that was carried out.
It has now fallen to a low of 65. That doesn't mean it has to bounce right here, right? Because judging by what we saw in mid- and late-2022, it could very well fall even lower, right? Just when it got cheap, it soon got even cheaper. The same thing could happen here. It forms lower highs and lower lows.
There seems to have been a bit of a recent uptick—I'm not sure if it's because of Bill Ackman or because the company recently reported earnings. But I want to remind you that the overall direction is still incredibly bearish. Clear lower highs , clear lower lows. But if you look at the company fundamentally, again, by going to Investing Pro and opening Netflix.
Again, this is one of my favorite things about this platform —that we don't just focus on technical analysis, which I think can be helpful, but when you invest in a company, you want to understand the deal you're paying for, or you're trying to take advantage of it, or maybe it's expensive , right? Like Palantir, which is trading at a price that is over 200 times its earnings.
I would never have known this just by looking at the stock. But I would find out about it by doing fundamental analysis. So, looking at Netflix, you can see that there is 12% upside potential on a fair value basis. According to analysts' forecasts, the price range is around $94, and now the average price is $87 , if I'm not mistaken.
Our current price is 78, fair value is 87. The P/E ratio is 23.8 to earnings. Not very expensive. You know, we're very close to that P/E ratio of 20. The P/E ratio is the premium that you're actually paying to own this company. The example I can give is Palantir, right? I want to use this as an example.
Palantir, in my opinion, is an expensive stock. You pay a big premium. If you look, it is trading at a price that is over 138 times its earnings. That is, given the company's current valuation and how much people are willing to pay for Palantir, which, in my opinion, is overvalued compared to what the company actually earns—$3 billion .
But if you look at Palantir and do a quick data check, you quickly see that Palantir has a market cap of $418 billion. And yet, the company only generates $3 billion in revenue. Again, a great prize. This is normal, right? Because when market sentiment and direction are in your favor, markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.
So, this doesn't mean you need to play for the draw. Not you guys, maybe me. But at the same time, in a very short period of time, the price has risen from lows of 120 to previous resistance levels around 190. In my opinion, it is overbought, overvalued in the short term, and it is probably only a matter of time before a correction occurs .
That's a conversation for another time. Right now we are focused on Netflix. And again, you can never guess the perfect time to invest in a company. But the idea we can borrow from Bill is that we can do our part by choosing to invest gradually with proper position size management, just like he did, right?
That we want to have a share, not all of it, especially when we know that the situation may get worse before it gets better. When we consider that it is relatively cheap, right? 23.8 to profit, revenue is 48 billion and $13.6 billion in net income. Net income is growing, revenue is growing, and if we click on professional research, one of my favorite things to study, you again get a deeper understanding of what the company actually does.
This is their income quarter after quarter, just incredible. I like to scroll down, and you know, if you want to spend time looking at their LTM financial models , their Q2 financials, see how they spend and , you know, make money and what are the details behind that . I think this could be very useful.
Most people like to focus on optimistic scenarios. I am not. I like to focus on pessimistic scenarios. I want to be aware of my risks. This is just my opinion, this is just my approach. I think everyone is always so fixated on the fact that stocks should only go up. But again , no, that's not true. Protect your positions, preserve your capital, right?
Shares fell 8.58% after the close of trading on Q2 results , falling below 52- week lows, below $70, as investors reacted negatively to slowing currency- neutral revenue growth: 11% in Q2 versus 12% in Q1. And also forecasts indicating the weakest income growth in 3 years. So again , I have to be aware.
So if something is revealed that's worrisome, or I see that, hey, this is going to be a problem, this could be a problem in the next few quarters, maybe I should wait, right? It's great that Bill decided to buy now, but I've added it to my watch list. This worries me. Now I know about it, so maybe I'll just add it to my watchlist , set the appropriate alerts, and come back to it, maybe when they start to fix this issue or to see if it actually starts to have less of a negative impact on the market or the stock than you originally expected, right?
Netflix shares lost their bid to acquire Roku to a $20 billion offer from Fox Corporation. The stock has a beta coefficient of 1.51, reflecting significant price volatility. She has been very, very volatile lately. Increasing competition from Amazon, Apple, Disney Plus, and YouTube, many of which can withstand streaming losses thanks to broader ecosystems, combined with consumer fatigue from subscriptions, poses a constant threat to pricing and subscriber loyalty.
So again , I like it. Because, again, you shouldn't be persuaded to focus only on the attractive picture of what could be. You have to be realistic and aware of the possible downsides. Then, when they start to manifest, you won't be surprised. You say, "I knew this was a problem, that's why I only went to 5%, right?" Or less than 10%.
I wanted to have a stake, but because of the bearish scenario I was aware of , I can make a more informed decision about the size of my investment, right? And again, I can only do this through deep fundamental analysis. So I thought now was the time to talk about it . Do I think he bought at the right time?
Of course , he bought, maybe at the highs of 60, or at the level of 70. Now he is trading at 78. Considering that he used to trade at the highs of 134, and now at the lows... how much is there? 78, to be exact, this gives a growth potential of about 71%. So, again, very attractive growth, but as you know, I like to talk about more than just profits.
I like to pay attention to risks as well. What's the worst case scenario? What if stocks continue to fall? Given the recent lows, there is still 16% of potential downside. Do the math yourself, okay? If you are not on our LPP team, don't worry. You can still use our risk calculator. We mean, when you think of a deal, just enter the data into our calculator.
You can customize it for yourself. Let's say you're thinking about investing in Netflix. Let's say your desired entry price is, "Hey, I'll just buy some right now." Maybe you want to act aggressively, right? Um, and your stop loss will be if the price updates the lows, which will be around 64.40. And your goal, of course, is for it to go up to 130, right?
Or maybe not, right? That's up to you . So, 64.40. And the target price will be 134 , if I'm not mistaken. Yes. So, we can just enter this data . And he will do the calculation for about 100 shares. You can change the number of shares depending on how large a stake you want to have. But with, you know, 10,000, sorry, 100 shares, that would be equivalent to an investment of about $7,000, or $ 7,800 to be exact.
So, again, you can experiment with that. If you have, say, $10,000 to work with, then 100 shares at $7,800 would be a good position size, albeit a bit aggressive to start with. And you can calculate everything. Hey, I could potentially lose, well, $1,300 if you end up with a loss. And remember, this is a strong, consistent downtrend.
It's not... It's been growing lately, but the market is growing too, right ? It went up after, maybe, the earnings report, maybe , after the news that Bill Ackman invested in it, but it was still going up. But then it started to decline again and hit new lows, right? This is worth considering. So is it worth the risk by going so aggressive with 100 stocks?
If you have, you know, $10,000 to work with. You might want to reduce your risk and say, " Okay, how about 40 stocks?" Okay, you know, worst case scenario I'll lose $500, that would be unpleasant, but maybe that's acceptable to you . But at best—2200. And you can always buy more when the direction becomes favorable, right?
You can work with it, play with the numbers, and depending on when you get to that amount that you respect and are willing to risk because of the potential profit—that's what I think makes the most sense. And of course, it shows you the risk-reward ratio, which I think is extremely important so that you only take those trading or investment opportunities where the potential profit far outweighs the risk.
Again, this is something we always talk about in our LPP program. When you guys are ready, if you want to watch me trade live, I do it every morning right after the market opens. You can even watch a recent live session to get a feel for what it's like before you join. And this is the second link in the description below.
But, with that said , again , this is our analysis of Netflix. I like this company. I might consider investing in it, but position size would be very, very critical. I can't expect that suddenly, just because Bill and I bought it, it will now magically start growing. If, again, due to a pessimistic scenario or simply market sentiment, the situation continues to deteriorate, then Netflix could also fall.
And that's definitely something you should take into account when managing your risk, as well as when choosing your position size, right? Just as we said. So, I'm really looking forward to the sequel. I hope you guys enjoyed this video. If you enjoyed it, please like and subscribe if you feel like we're on the same page.
Also , as always, thank you for your time. Let's do everything we can to end the year on a positive note. Take care, team.
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