저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 테슬라 목표가를 350달러로 상향하며 장기적 성장 스토리를 강조하고, 현 주가 약 258달러 대비 35% 상승 여지를 제시했다. 400달러 도달 가능성도 언급했다. 주요 근거는 마진 안정화, 중국 판매 회복(8월 중국 승용차 판매 2.2% 증가, 테슬라 점유율 7.5%→13.2%), 상하이 공장 8월 판매 약 31% 증가다. 수익원 다변화 관점에서 FSD를 AI의 핵심 'Golden Goose'로 보고, 다른 OEM에 FSD 라이선스 가능성을 언급했다. 슈퍼차저 네트워크 개방(포드·GM), 배터리 저장장치 사업(작년 대비 220% 성장)도 긍정 요인으로 꼽았다. 가격 인하(모델 S·X 중국 인하, FSD 가격 인하)는 수요 확보 전략으로 평가했다. 사이버트럭은 10월경 생산 시작, 12월 인도 가능성을 언급했다. UAW 파업 가능성이 있으며, 파업 시 테슬라는 비노조 기업이라 상대적 수혜가 있다고 봤다. 애플 2008~2009년과 비교하며 현재 테슬라를 초기 수익화 단계로 보고 장기 성장을 낙관했다. 리스크 측면에서는 파업 장기화, 가격 인하에 따른 마진 압박, FSD 외부 공급의 불확실성(구체적 고객 미확정)이 언급되었다. 테슬라 주가는 올해 136% 상승했으며 시가총액은 약 9,000억 달러 수준이다.
다듬은 글
in his price Target on Tesla to 350 so you actually raise even though the stock is down and the Market's worried about more price Cuts why I think investors aren't seing farest with the trees because ultim what's happening here we're seeing a stabilization from a margin perspective better than expect in terms of autog gross margins a $400 Tesla stock price valuation from wed Bush analyst Dan IES was seen by many as overly optimistic but for IES who previously called Tesla a golden Eevee success story $400 is attainable in fact in a previous note to clients I've said Tesla is in a massive position of strength after building its EV castle and now is set to further monetize its success this can be proven True by the company's increasing ability to bring in Revenue outside of EV sales you look at units right now on a trajectory toward 2 million and then this is the drum roll the Super Bowl to now what I believe is monetization of supercharger battery and I think last night the biggest thing from the conference confence call FSD talking to another OEM because this from an AI perspective is ultimately how I see Tesla getting into a trillion and a half2 trillion liing FSD to another OEM I mean he said early days it's never clear we got no Clarity on who it is or how far along or whether it may even come to fruition But ultimately this is for musk I think ultimately this is really the first step of what's going to be a broader strategy because they've built it I mean if you look at FSD full self-driving full self-driving and I'll argue Sarah that's that's AI I mean we could talk it's basically AI for automakers you look at full self-driving you look what happen with superchargers and ultimately now batteries and I think the story stabilizing from margin perspective the poker move massively played off from a unit perspective and I think that's why this year I think this is just the start in fact as of this month in light of this after passenger vehicle sales dropped in June and July the Chinese auto market recovered in August August with a return to growth in the same month Tesla almost doubled its market share in the country amidst increased discounts and tax exemptions that helped bolster consumer appeal passenger Auto Sales in China increased 2.2% year-over-year in August according to data from the China passenger car Association or cpca reuter's analysis showed that Tesla almost doubled its market share in China in the same month jumping from a 7.5% market share in July to a 13.2% share in August the cpca data showed that Tesla sold 64,65 vehicles in China in August while the automaker also delivered 65316 Shanghai built model y units during the same month because if you look at the lower prices sacrificing prices for demand it paid off not just in China in the US and I think what you're seeing right now with the EV play out you're starting to see this Green tidle Wave we viewed as the biggest transmiss to the Auto industry since 19 1950s it's Tesla's World everyone else is paying rent and I think last night was just another chess move while other automakers sit there playing checkers what about this the factory potential delay of shipments that that was something that was flagged on the call yeah and big deal yeah and that's one where and to your point a bit of a downtick production offline from a manufacturing perspective see I view that is really the what's going to be the star of a refresh for model 3s so I think that's a smart move because you're going to have refresher model 3s you got model wi and then ultimately the Cyber truck within production starts around Halloween I think we will start to see cyber trucks on the RO in the month of December gigafactory Shanghai sold roughly 84,000 159 vehicles in August marking a nearly 31% increase from just 64,852 6% from from the same month last year following a 2.9% drop off year-over-year in June if this continues to happen this month it would definitely be good for the company its stock and therefore its shareholders now as China's EV competition heats up Tesla is forced to cut the prices of its Model S and model X cars in an effort to boost sales the company lowered the starting price of the model S to 6 198,00 Chinese Yuan from 7549007534 738,000 Yuan from 8369 for the model X these are the two models already produced in the shangh high gigafactory this comes 2 weeks after Tesla had already slashed prices for the premium version of these two models which aren't built in China Tesla also cut prices on its full self-driving FSD software by $3,000 in the US lowering the price to $112,000 from $ 15,000 and by 3,500 in Canada from1 19,500 to 16,000 in connection with this wedbush analyst Dan Ives looked at Tesla on a sum of the parts sotp basis recently the sotp valuation examines and tries to Value the separate businesses within a company in an attempt to give a better price valuation of the stock in another note to investors I've sai 3 to 6% Vel m in I think it's Tesla's World everyone else is paying rent I think this is just the first phase of the growth story playing out modation that we're seeing on supercharger eventually what we believe is going to be battery you look get FSD that's the Golden Goose in terms of AI and and obviously the Gerber team Gerber cow the team you know thought leaders when it comes to the view of Tesa and Nicole I think this is just this is the the get out the popcorn moment where this is all heading in this green Title Wave that plays out but remember it's not just GNA be Tessa you're gonna have success stories like rivan you'll have vast you're going to have the some of these transformational the Fords the GMS you know obviously some of the European players there's G be many winners in this5 trillion green Title Wave yeah Tesla's separate businesses in this case are its supercharging Network where the company recently signed deals with several automakers to open up its charging Network the company has an AI it uses to train its FSD software which is likely to turn Tesla vehicles into Robo taxis Tesla also sells battery storage products to Consumers and utilities a business that grew over 220% year-over-year in Q2 based on all this IES rates Tesla a buy with a price target of $350 a share within the next 12 months which is a 35% gain from the current price of $258 however IES also noted that a $400 valuation can also happen soon and speaking of what could work in Tesla's favor an expert said that Tesla could be a big winner in case of UAW strikes the United Auto Workers strike against the big three automakers Ford General Motors and stellantis continues to loom as the deadline draws closer in light of this Nathan bomy axos business reporter and co-author of axos closer newsletter and David madland Center for American progress senior fellow and American worker project senior adviser joined Yahoo finance live to discuss the potential strike and its impact on the Auto industry bomy said that there's a possibility of striking all three at the same time and if that happens we would see a serious bottleneck in the Auto industry he also added that Tesla would be the big winner if there is a big strike the company would also be the winner if the automakers have to agree to huge pay increases because of course Tesla is not unionized anyhow Tesla has a lot of things going for them and it's great that it doesn't have to worry about a strike like Ford and GM and speaking of those two Legacy automakers their partnership with Tesla is what Dan IES believes to be ES wrote in a note to clients IES also said that Tesla is in a massive position of strength after building its EV castle and now is set to further monetize its success pointing to the company's increasing ability to bring in Revenue outside of EV sales Tesla should net another $3 billion in new revenue from Ford and General Motors EV users IES estimated IES noted 5,000 he suggest he also noted that Tesla's trailblazing deal to share its supercharger network with Ford and GM is a money-making opportunity and that its profits are likely to keep Rising once it's able to roll out its full self-driving Tech more widely in fact a long line of rival on a in revenue to IES overall IES sees the best point of comparison for Tesla as Apple in the late 2000s when the iPhone maker stock price didn't yet reflect its earnings potential we view Tesla where Apple was in the 2008 2009 period as copertino was just starting to monetize its services and golden ecosystem Ives wrote in Thursday's research note we view this quarter as a major step in the right direction as Tesla is playing chess While others play checkers Tesla is one of the major winners of the AI fueled Tech stock boom Shares are up 136% this year adding $530 billion to its market cap and leaving it worth just over $900 billion make sure to subscribe to Tesla stock for more
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