저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 캐시 우드는 테슬라를 여전히 강하게 낙관하며 2027년 목표가 1,400달러(보수적 베이스)·2,000~2,500달러(강세)를 제시했고, 최근 대량 매도는 포트폴리오 관리 차원이라고 설명했다. [시장 배경] 전미자동차노조(UAW) 파업 우려로 디트로이트 3사(GM·포드·스텔란티스) 생산 차질이 예상되며, 전기차 ETF에서 자금 유출이 있었다. 웨드부시 애널리스트 댄 아이브스는 파업이 50년 만에 가장 심각할 수 있다고 봤고, 테슬라가 경쟁사 중단의 수혜를 입을 것으로 평가했다. [테슬라 성장·가격 논리] 최근 5년 매출은 연평균 약 48% 성장. 테슬라는 가격 인하를 통해 배터리 원가 하락을 고객에게 넘기며 경쟁 우위를 확보하고 있다는 주장. [전기차 총소유비용] 미국 기준 전기차 총소유비용(보험 포함)은 약 2~3년 전 내연기관차 아래로 떨어졌다. 테슬라는 사고가 적다고 보고 보험 상품까지 제공할 만큼 자신감이 있다. [ARK 밸류에이션 구조] ARK 추정 가치의 약 1/3만 전기차 판매, 나머지 2/3는 자율주행 로보택시 사업에서 나온다. 2027년 로보택시 순매출 약 2,000억 달러 전망(강세 모델에서는 6,000억 달러 이상). 우드는 데이터 우위로 로보택시 시장을 테슬라가 독식(winner-take-most)할 것으로 봤고, 자율주행이 사망사고 감소에 기여하며 FSD 사용 시 안전성이 5배 이상이라는 ARK 자체 연구를 인용했다. 2024년 로보택시 출시 가능성을 언급. [매도 논란] 최근 ARK 펀드들이 테슬라 주식 약 2,550만 달러(약 9만 7,599주)를 매도했으나, 우드는 장기 낙관을 유지하며 포트폴리오 관리 때문이라고 설명했다. 2,000달러 목표가는 유지한다고 밝혔다. [시장 점유율·전망] 테슬라는 미국 전기차 시장점유율 약 60%, 모델Y는 올해 세계 최다 판매 차량. ARK는 2027년 전 세계 전기차 판매를 6,000만 대로 전망하며 테슬라가 선도 지위를 유지할 것으로 예상. 테슬라를 자동차 회사보다 AI 주식으로 본다는 관점. [리스크·조건] 로보택시 시장 전망과 테슬라의 데이터 우위가 맞아야 목표가가 실현됨. 목표가가 비현실적이라는 반론이 존재. [출연자 전망] 우드: 테슬라 장기 상승 확신, 1~4년 내 목표가 상향 시사. 사회자 발언 제외.
다듬은 글
uh we do believe it is that big uh so if you look at the revenue growth The Last 5 Years it's compounded at roughly 48% per year and that and that was H as you recall when Tesla was experiencing a quite a bit of controversy Tesla CEO Elon Musk is no fan of unions but at the moment he might be quietly cheering on Sha Fain the United Auto Workers leader shows no signs of backing down from Detroit's big three automakers as he pushes audacious contract demands exchange traded funds tracking automakers saw net outflows last month on worries over UAW strikes against the Detroit 3 and higher interest rates production at General Motors Ford and Chrysler parent stellantis have taken a beating as the UAW strike headed into the 20th day just a few days ago in light of this some are convinced that this would help Tesla at a time when traditional automakers are pushing more aggressively into electric vehicles if a strike happens then ultimately production and the EV road map could be pushed out into 2024 and delays would be on the horizon at this crucial period for GM Ford and stellantis wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a research note Tesla is well suited to benefit from any work stoppage at its Rivals he added I think this is going to be the most severe and the most dramatic strike in 50 years let's talk about EVs and not just Tesla yes is it good news for Tesla what's happening in Detroit right now um yes because if there's a strike of course uh there will be more production shortfalls um you know I think that there's just now the the supply chain has freed up so unfortunately we'll have all kinds of questions about that but you know I don't I don't think it has anything really to do with the strike it has uh everything to do with a consumer preference shift towards better Vehicles electric uh that are falling in price Tesla is leading that uh that price decline simply by passing cost declines onto its uh customers uh so I think that's what's good for Tesla Eric Gordon a business professor at the University of Michigan told wnm Barclay's analyst Dan Levy meanwhile called a strike highly likely in addition to slowing down the Detroit automakers a strike would hurt their bottom lines one against GM Ford and stantis lasting 10 days would cost them nearly a billion dollar according to the Anderson economic group while the Detroit automakers had nearly 2 million vehicles on hand at the end of July a work stoppage of 3 weeks or more would quickly drain the excess Supply raising vehicle prices and pushing more sales to non-union Brands analyst Sam fani told the Associated Press in a recent cnbc's fast money segment Kathy Wood talked about her views on Tesla where she predicted that Tesla stock would Skyrocket to $1,400 or more by 2027 notably Wood's $1,400 price target for Tesla is her bare case for the stock she thinks it's likely that Tesla share price will rise significantly higher than that over the next four years the complaint we hear is that people can't afford these vehicles uh what see news in the UK as you can see rishy sunak is pushing back targets to get rid of all of these internal combustion engines to 2035 from 2030 are we being unrealistic about transition and how this going to be no no no we do not think so we actually the total cost of ownership now this is in the United States it's a little bit different here but the total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle uh fell below that of a gas powerered vehicle about two to three years ago soon sticker prices does that include Insurance yes includes Insurance yes in as I said local differences but yes in the United States that does include insurance and in fact Tesla is so sure that uh its cars will have fewer accidents and fewer fatalities that it's well willing to provide insurance so yes that does include everything all wood does foresee strong sales growth for Tesla's electric vehicles however she told cnbc's Melissa Lee that EVS make up only around onethird of AR invest projected valuation for Tesla the other 2third of arc's valuation is related to autonomous vehicles in particular wood believes that Tesla has a massive opportunity in autonomous ride hailing sometimes referred to as Robo taxis Arin vest detailed in a report released in April that Tesla could generate annual net revenue in the ballpark of $200 billion by 2027 from autonomous ride hailing again note that that's the bease and although Tesla doesn't have a robo taxi service right now Arc expects the company to launch one relatively soon with 2024 as the most likely timing in the said CNBC interview wood said Tesla is in the pole position here in the United States wood argue that Tesla has a major advantage because it has more data than all the other autonomous vehicle companies combined the ark envest leader doesn't look for Tesla to command a robo taxi Monopoly because of its Edge however she thinks that autonomous ride hailing will be a winner take most market and that winner in her view will be Tesla in particular would believe that safety will be a key factor behind Tesla's success she noted that auto deaths are rising in the US texting while driving is an especially big issue human error ranks as the top cause by far in motor vehicle accidents wood thinks that shifting to Vehicles driven by artificial intelligence can help address these problems saying people driving in Tesla cars are 40% plus safer with autopilot and FSD than in other cars AR invest reported in April that its research found that Tesla's FSD is 5X safer than a manually driven Tesla adjusting for use on regular city streets only you may be wondering if a return of more than 5x by 2027 is Wood's bare case for Tesla what is her bull case for the stock Arin vest thinks that Tesla's share price could Skyrocket nearly 9 and a half times to $2500 over the next four years in this bull model Tesla's Robo taxi Revenue could grow to more than 600 billion by 2027 understandably many argue that Wood's bease price target for Tesla is also unrealistic however if her assumptions about the robo taxi market and Tesla's advantages in the market prove to be correct so will her prediction about the stock it is a well-known fact that Arc invest founder Kathy Wood has long been bullish on Tesla however recent sell-offs of the automaker shares have elicited some concerns from onlookers fortunately W discussed her reasoning for selling shares adding that she still optimistic on Tesla's long-term success and that the investment firm's confidence in the company has even increased throughout the year although wood has sold off a significant number of Tesla shares in recent months she reiterated her confidence in the stock in a Q&A session with Barons a few weeks back wood said that the recent sell-offs were simply due to portfolio management adding that she still maintains a $2,000 price Target on the automaker shares our confidence has increased since Tesla is cutting price wood told barrons it is one of the few auto manufacturers that can afford to do that because it's riding down the cost curve of consumer electronic batteries this is going to hurt the other manufacturers whose costs are much higher still the sell-offs didn't go unnoticed in fact just a few days ago Kathy Wood Le Ark invest made a significant move by selling over $25 million worth of Tesla shares this dive esate is a notable shift given arc's previous bullish stand on the electric car maker indicating a nuanced approach to portfolio management amidst evolving market dynamics Arc sold a total of 97599 worth of Tesla shares through its Flagship Arc Innovation ETF through Arc autonomous technology and Robotics ETF and Arc Next Generation internet ETF the value of the sale was 25.49 Million based on the closing price of $261 2016 at the time Tesla stock Rose by 5.9% over 24 hours in value Arin vest decision to offload a significant portion of the Elon Musk company shares underscores a strategic realignment the fund's move is particularly striking given Kathy Wood's historical advocacy for Tesla the sale could suggest a recalibration of arc's investment strategy possibly in response to emerging market trends and opportunities nevertheless Tesla currently has around 60% market share in the electric vehicle business in the us and the model y has become the world's bestselling vehicle this year Arin vest predicts 60 million EVS to be sold globally by 2027 with Tesla remaining the dominant market leader during the same year W also considers Tesla to be an artificial intelligence stock rather than just a car company this is largely due to its autopilot and full self-driving FSD beta systems the latter of which uses data from Human drivers to help train its AI for a future of autonomy Tesla CEO Elon Musk says he expects autonomous driving to support a future Robo taxi business which could generate highlevel profit margins not unlike those from software companies still wood says that she thinks Tesla remains in the core position to be the market leader in the future Market of autonomous taxi Platforms in the US adding that she expects the company to price Robo taxi services below Uber oryt autonomy has been the primary focus of wood in arc's lofty predictions on Tesla and she still expects the company to outperform others in this area Tesla's competitive Advantage is the billions of miles of real world driving data it has compiled which are used to train models to teach the car how to adjust to rare situations she added during the interview no one has been able to do this because they don't have anywhere near as much data subscribe for more
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