저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 테슬라를 전기차가 아닌 기술(AI·FSD) 기업으로 보며 강한 상승 견해를 유지한다. 가격 인하 리스크는 대부분 지나갔다고 보며, 수요 안정화와 인도량 호조를 근거로 제시한다. 슈퍼차저 네트워크 개방으로 연간 최대 200억 달러 매출 가능성을 언급하고, 2030년까지 총매출 3,330억 달러 이상을 전망한다. 목표가는 300달러에서 350달러로 상향했다. 목표가 350달러 상향의 근거로는 배터리 기술, 슈퍼차저, FSD·AI 등 사업 영역 확장을 든다. Ark Invest는 로보택시 사업으로 2030년 최대 10조 달러 매출을 전망하며, 2027년 주당 2,000달러를 예상한다. 약세 시나리오에서도 1,400달러 가치를 제시한다. 리스크로는 FSD 약속의 반복적 지연, 마진 약화, 주가 변동성이 언급된다. 장기 투자자에게 더 적합하다는 평가다. 2023년 주가는 연초 대비 약 90% 상승했으나 2022년 고점 대비 70% 이상 급락했던 경험이 있다.
다듬은 글
this is just what IBU is the second inning of a nine inning game for Tesla and I think ultimately now you're starting to see demand stabilize and I think Ram especially in China in the U.S that was Daniel lives a managing director and Senior equity research analyst covering the technology sector at wedbush security since 2018 but besides that he is also known as a Tesla Bull in his astute analysis Ives perceives Tesla's recent exceptional delivery figures as the Inception of a remarkable electric vehicle Triumph that is gradually gaining recognition on Wall Street prices now with Mustin take off any more price cuts which are the stock knee-jerk got hit a bit but they're not going to put their back against the wall and I ultimately believe 95 to 98 of price cuts are in the rear view mirror and now you start to get that sum in the parts store from superchargers to AI slash FSD talk about the OEM that they're in talks with to Battery Technology and I believe there's a stock that continues to go higher despite this knee-jerk afterwards obviously been a parabolic year comparing the competition Ives portrays Tesla as a strategic chess player while other electric vehicle manufacturers are merely playing checkers throughout his consistent support Ives has consistently showcased his bullish sentiment towards Tesla demonstrating unwavering faith in the company's ability to sustain its upward trajectory of growth amid consistently fruitless predictions over full self-driving and regularly weakening margins Tesla has carved out a strong year especially given the hard bumps the company's stock had in 2022.
but Dan you were already of course bullish on Tesla with a 300 price Target you bumped it to 350. what specifically stood out to you from this earnings report or from the earnings call that warrants a 50 price Target bump yeah I think ultimately it's it's really become the atani of electric vehicles in in terms of everything that they're doing because now from a valuation perspective it's some of the parts it's not just from a demand from an auto from a delivery I view now you start to add what the Battery Technology could be what superchargers could add and ultimately the drum roll and I believe this is how you get to a trillion half two trillion dollar Mark cap it's FSD AI it is no secret that the past couple of years have been a roller coaster Thrill Ride for Tesla investors after surging to a new all-time high in late 2021 the stock went on to Crater more than 70 percent factors driving some of the Steep drops include outsized inflation Rising interest rates to help fight inflation and a sizable stock market slump focused largely on Tech growth stocks and yet Tesla stock is ascending in 2023 up 90 percent so far this year while a general stock market rebound and a more bullish attitude on Wall Street this year were no doubt contributing factors several company-specific developments have thrust the electric vehicle maker back into the spotlight the biggest of these is the Mad Dash by a growing number of automakers to join the Tesla Supercharger Network and adopt its North American charging standard nacs connector which is quickly becoming the de facto industry standard simply put Tesla has been Making Waves throughout 2023 part particularly over a series of game-changing announcements of Partnerships with a handful of competitors that would Grant other automakers access to Tesla's supercharging Network these Partnerships amid the regular growth of the charging Network represent a component of the EV makers business that web Bush analyst Dan Ives thinks has a lot of room to grow historically speaking automakers have been fiercely competitive when it comes to EV charging with most players insisting on developing their own proprietary systems in recent months however a number of this veritable Stampede has Wall Street furiously reworking its analytical models and wedbush Veteran technology analyst Dan Ives said he believes this trend will eventually add tens of billions of dollars in additional Revenue to Tesla's results now here's the thing I've Tesla is also working to secure its share of 7.5 billion dollars in U.S government subsidies designed to accelerate the installation of as many as 500 000 high-speed Chargers on the country's busiest highways the Biden Administration has been clear that Tesla would only be eligible if other automakers were granted access to its Network spending on Tesla Supercharger network has been significant with charging stations costing a hefty forty two thousand dollars per connector the resulting financial burden aside Tesla stations are much more cost effective compared to the 100 to 250 000 per connector spent by arrivals according to a report by Bloomberg Ives notes 5 000.
He suggests Tesla's network is almost entirely solar powered so the energy generation costs are negligible as a result Tesla's supercharger network will represent a large monetization opportunity and account for according to Ives this implies that Tesla stands to generate total revenue of more than 333 billion dollars by the end of the decade across its sprawling business a hefty increase from the 94 billion dollars it reported over the trailing 12-month perio I've said in a post annually by 2030.
Ives has previously been bullish on the company raising his price Target by 50 to 350 in July Tesla right now it's their world everyone else is paying rent Ives told CNBC relative to scale relative to what we see on batteries this is what I view as Apple 2008 2009 relative to the broader Tesla story this latest projection out of wedbush is based on a business that is currently in operation Arc invest meanwhile said in April that Tesla's Robo taxi business could bring in up to 10 trillion dollars in Revenue by 2030.
Arc said at the time that it expects Tesla to trade at two thousand dollars per share by 2027. Tesla should trade like a Technology stock and not like traditional automakers something that analysts and Tesla bear can't grasp said would though Arc is bullish on Tesla as an AI company the big vertical it is so optimistic about involves the aforementioned autonomous taxi business which Arc thinks could lead up to 10 trillion dollars in Revenue by 2030.
according to ark's latest research published in April would expect Tesla to reach two thousand dollars per share by 2027. that's based on a weighted probability of different outcomes for revenue profitability and the Stock's expected valuation but even in ark's bear case scenario The Firm believes the stock could be worth fourteen hundred dollars these assumptions are ultimately rooted in Tesla's leadership in artificial intelligence and its data Gathering to make it self-driving technology better than human drivers as a result Arc expects most of Tesla's profits to come from the robo taxi business by 2027.
according to ark's analysis Tesla could generate over one trillion dollars in Revenue by 2027 with 44 of that coming from robo taxis and 47 percent from electric vehicles the rest would come from Energy Solutions human-driven ride-hailing services and insurance this view of Tesla as a tech giant rather than a car maker is shared by wed Bush's Dan Ives who recently projected that Tesla's supercharger Network could bring in up to 20 billion dollars in annual revenue by 2030.
bulls have disruptive technology and that continues to be the big debate around the name I've said I've always viewed them as a Tech play and I can argue the FSD angle makes them one of the best AI plays when you look down the road three to five years overall as a result of Tesla's stock price surge so far this year there has been a commensurate increase in its valuation that said Tesla is still the dominant EV supplier in the U.S and is expanding on numerous fronts including its supercharger Network battery production Energy Solutions and vehicle manufacturing for those with an extended investing time Horizon and the stomach for some volatility there's still plenty of growth to be had it is no secret that Tesla stock can be extremely volatile but experts always point out that it is more suited for long-term investors rather than short-term ones make sure to subscribe for more
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