저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 테슬라가 전기차 시장의 승자가 될 것이며, 특히 에너지 저장 사업이 차량 사업보다 빠르게 성장해 강력한 주가 동력이 될 것이라고 주장한다. 전기차 시장 성장: 스콧 아크(Scorus Arc)의 배터리 리서치를 인용해 전기차 판매가 작년 약 180만 대에서 향후 5~6년간 3,500만 대(전체 자동차 판매의 40%)로 약 20배 성장할 것이라고 전망했다. 자동차 산업은 약 100년간 지수적 성장을 경험하지 못했으나 전기차는 향후 5~10년간 지수적 성장 구간에 진입했다고 주장했다. 테슬라 리더십: 테슬라는 자율주행과 AI 분야를 선도하며 차량 성능·주행거리 면에서 동일 가격대 최고 수준이라고 평가했다. 자율주행·로보틱스·AI 기업으로 봐야 하며 단순 자동차 회사가 아니라는 입장이다. 경쟁사들은 자율주행에 충분히 집중하지 않아 따라잡기 어렵다고 했다. 에너지 저장 사업: 메가팩·파워월 등 정치 저장 사업은 연 150~200% 성장할 것으로 보며 차량 사업보다 훨씬 빠르다. 2022년 4분기 저장 용량 배치는 2.4GWh(전년 대비 152% 증가), 연간 6.5GWh(64% 증가)를 기록했다. 수요가 공급을 초과하며 네바다 등 40GWh 규모 공장 증설이 진행 중이다. 가격 및 마진 전망: 머스크 CEO가 차량 가격을 절반으로 낮출 수 있다고 언급했고, 로보택시는 약 2.5만 달러에서 시작할 수 있으며 세액공제 시 1만 달러 후반대까지 내려갈 수 있다고 봤다. 규모의 경제로 자율주행 모빌리티에서 테슬라 마진이 폭발적으로 늘어날 것이라고 예상했다. 리스크: 본 영상에서 명시적 하방 리스크 언급은 제한적이며, 과거 애널리스트들이 테슬라 실패를 예견했던 점을 반박하는 구도다. 영상 내 구체적 목표가나 기간별 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
according to scorus arc's battery research EV sales will scale nearly 20-fold from roughly 1.8 million last year to 35 million 40 percent of total Global Auto sales during the next five to six years Arc invest CEO Kathy woodsaid in a tweet in 2020 pointing to Sam chorus's research chorus is ark's in another tweet wood said that the Auto industry has not enjoyed exponential growth in roughly a hundred years EVS have entered exponential growth territory that will last for the next 5 to 10 years said wood today the star investor is once again expressing that Tesla will be the winner of the electric vehicle Market by Leading the charge on AI and energy according to Wood Tesla is going to emerge as the winner of the electric vehicle Market as the company is leading the industry in key factors that distinguish it from its competitors I think the companies that are going to win are are not focused only on electric they're focused on autonomous wood said in a Bloomberg intelligence webinar posted towards the end of February moreover in addition to Robotics and artificial intelligence wood also talked about Tesla's energy storage business she said that advances in Battery Technology will give electric vehicles lower costs than typical gas-powered Vehicles we believe that Tesla from a thought leadership point of view is leading the charge so to speak in this movement towards autonomous electric vehicles she said I do believe that Tesla has for a given price the best range in performance of any car on the market today would added wood further shared that her firm arconvest believes that Tesla from a thought leadership point of view is still in the lead position in the movement toward autonomous electric vehicles it's worth noting that Tesla boasts an energy business with the potential to grow faster than its vehicle business Tesla energy is the company's energy to division that installs solar panels solar roofs and stationary energy storage products like powerwall and mega packs we actually see the energy storage business stationary storage growing more like 150 to 200 percent a year much faster than cars by a lot Tesla CEO Elon Musk said during the Q3 2022 earnings call even last year when the market had been extremely volatile Tesla's energy generation and storage revenues are on a massive growth trajectory thanks to the positive reception of mega pack and powerwall products on the energy profitability we achieved our strongest gross profits yet for this business driven primarily by record volumes of our mega pack and powerwall products said Tesla Chief Financial Officer Zachary kirkhorn during the said earnings call Kathy Wood said in January on a recent Squawk on the street episode wood told CNBC why she believes Tesla has a leg up in the market wood said Elon has said that he thinks he will be able to cut the price of a car in half we think that a robo taxi could start at twenty five thousand dollars and you know if you've got tax credits that could take you into the high teens that said wood shared that it is going to be very difficult for the competition to beat that in fact they won't be able to come anywhere near that said wood as prices have come down his margins have gone up he's enjoying economies of scale and we do believe that margins for Tesla are going to become explosive with autonomous Mobility wood also shared her belief that Tesla would be at the Forefront of the autonomous taxi platform Market more so than its other competitors because they aren't focused enough on autonomous vehicles furthermore wood said that Tesla models are of higher quality traditional autoanalyst deemed Tesla as doomed to failure they did not understand that Tesla was a Robotics and energy storage and artificial intelligence company not an auto company wood noted last year even analysts can see that Tesla's energy storage business is booming in the recent Q4 2022 Financial results the automaker released its energy divisions deployment number although Tesla solar had a good quarter with 100 megawatts deployed the company showed significant results with its energy storage deployment power walls and mega packs Tesla confirmed that it deployed a record 2.4 gigawatt hours of energy storage in Q4 which is up 152 percent year-over-year and 300 megawatts more than the previous quarter which was also a massive record it's brought Tesla's total deployment for the whole year to an impressive 6.5 gigawatt hours up 64 percent versus 2021.
in its Q4 shareholders letter Tesla wrote about its energy storage business energy storage deployment and increased by a hundred fifty two percent year-over-year in Q4 to 2.5 gigawatt hours for a total deployment of 6.5 gigawatt hours in 2022 by far the highest level of deployments we have achieved demand for our storage products remains in excess of our ability to supply we are in the process of ramping production at our dedicated 40 gigawatt hour mega pack Factory in Lathrop California to address the growing demand this Factory should help to further accelerate the growth of energy storage deployments subscribe for more
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