저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라 주가는 강세 지속 전망, 단기 조정은 일시적이며 목표가 350달러 제시. 핵심 주장: 테슬라는 전기차 회사가 아닌 기술(AI·자율주행) 기업으로 보고, 슈퍼차저 네트워크 등 서비스 수익화가 본격화된다고 봄. 2분기 인도량 46.6만대로 월가 예상(44.7만대)을 상회. 근거 수치: 2분기 생산 47.97만대, 인도 46.6만대. 목표가 기존 대비 40달러 상향해 300→350달러. 350달러 목표는 2024년 주당순이익 추정 4.80달러 기준 약 73배. 주가는 약 244.5달러(8개월 신고가)였고 당시 250달러 수준. 올해 주가 90%+ 상승. 슈퍼차저 수익: 포드·GM 충전 접근 허용으로 약 30억 달러 추가 매출 추정. 2030년까지 슈퍼차저 연 최대 200억 달러 매출 가능(전체 매출의 약 6%), 테슬라 전체 매출 3,300억 달러 이상 가능성 제시. 미 정부 75억 달러 충전 보조금 확보 노력 언급. 가격인하: 마진 희생으로 점유율 확대 전략이 옳았다고 평가, 다음 1~2분기 마진 압박 후 내년 반등 전망. 기술주 전망: 하반기 기술주 급등 가능성 언급, 나스닥 조정 시 테슬라도 영향받을 수 있음을 인정하나 새로운 기술 강세장이 시작됐다고 주장. 엔비디아 등 AI 지출 확대 수혜 강조. 리스크: 금리 상승, 마진 약화, 가격인하 지속, 곰 진영의 자동차 회사 관점 비판. 출연자 전망: 다니엘 아이브스는 강한 상승 확신, 테슬라 매수 의견 유지.
다듬은 글
percent of overall EVS that ultimately are going to be using the charging stations, what they're going to be charging per kilowatt hour, and then, the important things. Guys, the Bears will say, "Well, today everyone just charges at home." But they charge at their office better than expected. Now, that's perhaps the best way to describe Tesla and its stock. So, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is on point on that one.
What's more, he believes there's more room to run for the EV leader after its latest bullish Q2 delivery numbers. For context, Tesla reported record second-quarter deliveries of 466,000, ahead of Wall Street's 447,000 consensus estimate. Production in the quarter also rose to 479,700, which I've said was evidence of improved capacity and a healthier macro. In a research note, he added that when you look right now, they're going to be the only game in town. That's why you have GM and others going into Tesla. I think today it's supercharging, in charging next is going to be batteries, and then eventually FSD. AI kickstarts the thesis. Apple on the services side. This is just the early stages of monetizing. The numbers are proof to combat the narrative of a murky backdrop and should put the Bears back into hibernation mode.
It is no secret that Dan Ives is a Tesla bull. You are all aware that the news of Tesla's partnership with Ford and GM was well received. In fact, Tesla shares set a fresh eight-month high a few days back, jumping four percent to 244.50 after the firm announced it will open its Supercharger network to General Motors electric vehicles, coming on the heels of a similar announcement for Ford EVs. This represents a... In a recent note to clients, he upped his price target for Tesla by 40 to 300.
At the time, where are we on the roadmap of price cuts in terms of Tesla, which Elon Musk is clearly moving to put growth ahead of profitability? Yeah, I think that's been the right poker move, and I think it's paid off significantly, especially in China. I think now, of 95-96 of those cuts, we think in the Arabian America, and I think you saw maybe some overreaction last week, and you definitely saw a rebound as I think more investors are recognizing that. But right now, margins are suffering at the cost of units. Now I think that drops over the next quarter or two and starts to rebound into next year, and that's the yin and yang they're going to strike. But ultimately, it continues to be Tesla's world, and everyone else is paying rent. In terms of overall EVs, I think that's becoming clearer and clearer. In a note to clients, Ives, well, some actually did a recent note from Dan Ives of Wedbush. It is worth noting that Tesla is also working to secure its share of the $7.5 billion U.S. government subsidy designed to accelerate the installation of as many as 500,000 high-speed chargers on the country's busiest highways.
The Biden administration has been clear that Tesla would only be eligible if other automakers were granted access to its network. Spending on Tesla's Supercharger network has been significant, with charging stations costing a hefty $42,000 per connector. The resulting financial burden aside, Tesla stations are much more cost-effective compared to the $100,000 to $250,000 per connector spent by rivals, according to a report.
So in terms of the stock, it's up 10 percent this week, it's down 10 percent over a month. And the reason, I'm trying to get the correlation here between it and the NASDAQ. If the NASDAQ continues to have some trouble and big tech in general pulls back, this stock is going to be susceptible to that as well. Don't you think? Of course. Yeah, I mean, we continue to view Tesla as a disruptive technology company, not an auto player. But it's our view that during the second half of the year, tech stocks rip higher. It's my view that the new tech bull market has already begun. I think growth is going to exceed Street expectations. We were talking with Nvidia, that's just the tip of the iceberg. That's what we're going to see with this trillion-dollar tidal wave of spend over the coming years for players across the tech ecosystem. Undoubtedly, Tesla's Supercharger network is the most robust and expansive on the planet, and earlier this summer it gained massive attention when it struck deals with various OEMs to allow their EVs to access the charging infrastructure starting in spring 2024.
In another note to investors, Ives wrote, simply put, Ives is a firm believer in Tesla. In fact, he said Tesla is in a massive position of strength after building its EV castle and is now set to further monetize its success, pointing to the company's increasing ability to bring in revenue outside of EV sales. Tesla should net another $3 billion in new revenue from Ford and General Motors EV users, Ives estimated. He suggests Tesla's network is almost entirely solar-powered, so the energy generation costs are negligible. As a result, the Tesla Supercharger network will represent a large monetization opportunity and account for roughly three percent, according to Ives. This implies that Tesla stands to generate total revenue of more than $330 billion by the end of the decade across its sprawling business, a hefty increase from the $94 billion it reported over the trailing 12-month period. A few weeks ago, Ives gave Tesla stock a buy. His price target is $350 a share, one of the highest on Wall Street, which worked out to about 73 times his 2024 earnings estimate of $4.80 a share. Overall, 39 percent of analysts covering the company rate shares by now. It's having its pause, pullback, whatever you're going to characterize that as. What do you want these stocks to go up, 60 and 70 percent for the year? My view is, first, it overcorrected last year. That's our opinion, and I think now investors are more and more looking at 2024 and 2025, looking at a cycle that we haven't seen in 30 years. Of course, rates, as you have to, clearly are going to be a headwind. But when I look across software, cybersecurity, and chips, I view this as a time where we see the start of a new tech bull market, not the time where we're hiding because of valuations. I think these stocks will grow into their valuations over the coming years.
Raising his price target for the EV maker to $350, Ives argued in a note that Elon Musk's company has demonstrated that it can monetize key products, including its Supercharger network and self-driving tech. Tesla is currently trading at around $250 per share, $100 short of Ives' price target. Unsurprisingly, Tesla bears do not share Ives' optimism on Tesla stock, especially since Tesla stock has been falling ever since the company reported earnings in July, largely over concerns of weakening margins and continuous price cuts. However, the company, which is still up more than 90 percent for the year, is just at the beginning of its growth. Ives firmly believes that the Tesla bears are negative because they are looking at Tesla as a car company. He, on the other hand, remains incredibly bullish on the company's outlook because, similar to Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, he views the company as a major player in the tech and AI space. Bulls have disruptive technology, and that continues to be the big debate around the name. I've always viewed them as a tech play, and I can argue the FSD angle makes them one of the best AI plays. When you look down the road three to five years, Tesla as a tech company rather than a car company is something that will achieve profits through the monetization of certain invaluable services. The company's Supercharging network represents the very beginning of this monetization.
Ives and his team released new projections around the Tesla Supercharging network last week, saying the network could bring in up to $20 billion in revenue annually by the end of the decade, an amount equivalent to around six percent of Tesla's total revenue. This latest model is based on the assumption of broader EV adoption, with Ives looking at EVs to make up around 20 percent of all cars by the end of the decade, compared with the current ratio of three to four percent. There are a lot of variables, Ives said of the model. One is that the vast majority of charging today happens at home or at the place of business. This is under the scenario that more EVs are being used outside of just commuting and driving around and also being charged at their own long distances. Make sure to subscribe for more.
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