Don't Expect Any Rate Cuts From The US Fed In 2024: Ed Yardeni | CNBC TV18

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S&P500은 3월28일 고점 대비 약 5.5% 하락, 50일선 이탈 후 4800(2022년 1월 신고가 지지), 4700(200일선)까지 10% 조정 가능성 제기. 올해 연내 금리인하 없을 것으로 봄(3~4월 CPI 상회, 대선 전 동결 전망). 인도 증시는 이미 선반영됐으나 미국 10년물 금리 10%·S&P 10% 조정·강달러가 신흥국에 불리하다고 봄. S&P 연말 목표 5400은 유지하되 시장 휴지기 필요, 밸류에이션 부담으로 점진적 상승 예상. 성장주는 금리 상승기 underperform 경향, 테슬라는 EV 둔화로 매력 감소.

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01. Ed yard is with US president at yard Prashant the side uh you know the US indices have look a little weak technically speaking they've broken some averages do you expect a 4 5% kind of a pullback for indices from here well we're down 5.5% from the March 28th Peak for the S&P 500 I think uh that we could just go lower we just last week broke down below the 50-day moving average average and then um the next stop might be something in the neighborhood of 4,800 which which would might find support at that uh previous alltime record high that we made way back in January 3D of 2022 and if that doesn't hold then it'll be more like 4700 which is the 200 day moving average and that would be a full 10% correction so I I think we could get a full 10% correction on this I think the Market's going to uh in hasn't completely discounted the fact that we'll probably get no rate cuts by the fed this year okay no uh sorry what did you say you're not expecting any rate cuts by the fed this year correct I'm not I'm not I I look I think at this point uh the the FED uh was uh disturbed by the hotter than expected CPI inflation numbers during Jan January February and March uh and now we're getting to the political season so I think they probably won't do anything until after after the election which would put him at the November and December meetings but I think the economy is going to continue to do well okay so if that's the base case right Ed that there is no rate cut this year and which is the common narrative now how are you approaching Emerging Markets like India because that seems to be the case here as well growth is good uh things are picking up but we are heading into a huge election season so how do you approach the equity markets now well India's had a a tremendous move in in the stock market the Indian economy has been doing very well uh a lot of investors have already discounted the fact that uh China is not doing well and as a result of that some of the benefits of that are actually going to to India uh the election uh result I think is pretty well anticipated uh and the the government if it remains in uh in place has promised to make India the third largest economy in the world so you know they're certainly talking a bullish scenario for the Indian stock market but on the shortterm basis uh I think there's a possibility for the 10-year bond yield in the US to get up to 10% there's a possibility for a full 10% correction in the S&P 500 and meanwhile the dollar is strong so those are not conducive to uh Emerging Markets generally on a short-term basis hi Ed good morning you know I recall in the past you were talking about the S&P 500 I think approaching that 5,400 odd mark if we do get the other 42% correction that we just spoke about that's completes the 10% correction what could be the year end targets then on the S&P 500 it's still be 5400 uh you know on March 28th when we got uh to almost what uh 52 5200 5300 on the S&P 500 people were asking me if I was going to raise my 5400 Target for the end of the year I said no I think the market needs a a pause here it's discounted a lot the valuation multiple is awfully High I think from here on we have to have an earnings Le Market which I think we will but I think it's going to be a more gradual Ascent we we've had a melt up really from October 27th of 2023 through March 28th of this year and I think it's time for a pause uh you know we have these large companies the so-called magnificent 7 four out of the seven are reporting numbers this week uh and uh Tesla will report on Tuesday you know I put out a piece on Friday looking at uh not just Tesla but I mean the the general slowdown that EVS are seeing around the world at least the big important regions around the world be China Europe us Etc uh by the way Elon Musk was supposed to be here in India supposed to be here on Sunday and then uh you know was just was supposed to be the PM on Monday uh but of course that's been defer just a quick thought I mean it's an important it used to be at least an important uh indicator for the market overall before Nvidia took that uh sort of you know charge what's your sense here Ed well I think uh you know Tesla is uh clearly viewed as a technology company but it's also a car company and the car compan is a different kind of business than a semiconductor business uh but uh I think Tesla is uh not quite as magnificent as it had been uh we're also seeing that uh Nvidia has uh given up some a little bit of its uh meteoric rise uh the Magnificent 7 they're they're not all that magnificent they had a bad week last week uh Amazon U basically was the only stock that outperformed the S&P 500 and it was still down a little bit I should say Google was the only one Al alphabet has another name for it um but I would say all in all uh they are growth stocks and growth stocks do tend to uh underperform warm when interest rates are going up which is what they've been doing all right let's see how this plays out right Tesla has gone ahead and cut prices in China and in the US as well and we've seen a steep fall in their sales they've laid off 10% of their Global Workforce so things are getting pretty ugly over there but Ed thank you so much for stopping by and speaking to us at CNBC TV8 appreciate your time here have a great week ahead