저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
모비우스는 금·은 등 실물 귀금속 보유를 권하며 달러 약세와 중앙은행 불신을 근거로 상승을 전망했다. 원유는 달러 약세 영향으로 점진적 상승을 예상했고, 금리 인하 시 신흥시장 자금 유입이 늘 것으로 보았다. 소프트웨어(인도 IT)와 기술 활용 제조업에 긍정적이며, 타타그룹을 장기 수혜주로 꼽고 Sensex 10만 목표를 재확인했다.
다듬은 글
Welcome back. This is a special edition of Market Masters, and with us is the ultimate master of emerging markets and of investing, Mark Mobius. We've talked a lot about India and equities here. What's interesting is the run-up we've seen in the commodities space, where many hard commodities have had big multi-year rallies. Do you have any preferred equity plays in this space? Do you like the metals space in India, gold and silver? How do you play that?
That's a very good point. I believe every portfolio should have some physical gold. It's very, very important. Look at what has happened to gold and silver. Silver is already outperforming gold. There are a number of reasons for that, but probably the primary one is that globally there's a new generation of investors who don't really trust the central banks around the world or the currencies, and they want to hedge their portfolios by buying gold and silver. That's going to be a very interesting development. And as gold moves up, other metals move up as well, because people are betting on commodities in general to preserve their wealth. So we're seeing a big shift. If you look at cryptocurrencies, they're moving up at a fast pace too, in line with gold and silver.
Okay Mark, on that point about commodities: I know you're an India bull, but Brent crude is at $90 a barrel, and there's tension simmering between Israel and Iran that could potentially be a risk for crude prices. Do you think that could be a deterrent, at least in the near to medium term?
I don't think it will be a deterrent. I think there'd be a gradual increase in the price of oil in dollar terms. That reflects not so much the oil price itself but the depreciation of the dollar. The dollar is very plentiful, as you know. The Fed has been printing and printing, and now they're reducing, but there are still an awful lot of dollars out there, and that's a reflection of the dollar's weakness. This applies to oil and commodities in general.
Just a follow-up on crude: do you look at oil marketing companies as investable options?
Yes, we do, but we're more interested now in oil companies that are exploring and have the technology to discover new oil. That's one area we think is quite interesting.
Any other industrial metals that stand out? Copper, for example, was supposed to have a big super cycle in 2021. We had a sharp move, but then it fizzled. Do you think copper makes a big comeback? What's your view on other industrial metals?
I think nickel is worth looking at, mainly because of batteries. Electric car battery consumption is increasing, so the need for batteries is growing, and nickel might be interesting. But you have to be very careful with these commodities, because at the end of the day, the supply-demand equation could really be a problem, and we have to look at that.
Mark, you briefly mentioned interest rates in the West. US rates have gone to 5.25%, and Western markets have done very well. One could say that if rates going up didn't hurt, then rates coming down will help. But for emerging markets, if rates come down and the dollar weakens substantially, that's a time-tested correlation. It means more flows into emerging markets. Sitting here in India, is that the bet, that whenever rates start to come off and the dollar goes south, that pushes a lot of money toward EM?
Generally speaking, yes. If rates come down, it will be more attractive to go into emerging markets. But the shift to emerging markets has already begun. If you look at the US market and the Indian market as a good example, Korea has done well and Taiwan has done very well. People are beginning to diversify away from the US market, knowing it has performed very well but may not continue this trend. So I believe you're going to see a lot of people diversifying into emerging markets regardless of where interest rates are. Of course, a lower interest rate means people will put more money into equities.
Okay Mark, we're starting earnings season soon with TCS. What's your sense of the IT space, considering the global demand situation? Are there any specific IT stocks you like, given all that's happening with artificial intelligence?
That's a very good question, because AI is really changing the scenario for software in general. Software companies that aren't taking advantage of AI will be in trouble. But I believe many have grasped the opportunity, and there will actually be more opportunities for Indian software companies to export their software. So I'm quite bullish on software in general, and I believe companies in this space will do quite well.
You mentioned in passing the world moving to electric vehicles. Have you bought an EV yourself?
No, I don't drive. Maybe I fly in a private jet. But it's interesting that here in Dubai, if you hire an electric vehicle, it's more expensive than the regular petrol engines. That's understandable given its proximity to oil. But speaking of that theme, a lot of people call Tata Motors the Tesla of India, with money coming out of the US and going into India. Where are you on that?
I believe the automobile industry in India will grow at a fast pace, with more and more people able to afford cars. Companies applying AI to automobiles are going to see a very good development. Electric vehicles are the future for India as well. Speaking of Tata itself, a lot of these conglomerates have come back. We've seen big announcements from the Birlas trying to set their house in order for many of their companies. Tata has of course been a big wealth creator. Tata is probably the prime example of a company that has done so well in so many areas and really improved the quality of various sectors. Look at what they've done in the airline sector and in many other areas. They're a leader in many of these sectors, so I would say Tata will do very well, simply because demand in India is going to increase tremendously, and there's going to be demand for electric vehicles.
Mark, for about ten years before that, it was all about services, about technology, not tangibles, not hard infrastructure. That changed over the last couple of years after COVID. I think the world woke up to the fact that manufacturing capacity in many areas is not enough, so there's a revival in that direction. I want to understand your big picture over the next couple of years. What are the big themes within manufacturing? Is it electrification? Within electrification, is it cars, or is it power? What are the big manufacturing themes that will do very well? At the end of the day, what happens globally comes here sooner or later.
The key to the entire system now is technology. When we go to a manufacturing company, in fact any company we're looking at, the first thing we ask management is what they're doing in technology, and how they're using it to improve profitability and efficiency. That is the key theme. In manufacturing it's going to be even more important, because with robotics and AI, efficiency is going to improve dramatically. You cannot invest in a company that isn't using technology to improve its profitability and efficiency. As a result of AI, prices will come down in real terms, and competition will become much fiercer.
Okay Mark, before we wrap up, you previously gave a target that the Sensex will probably hit one lakh, probably within the next five years. Leave us with any targets for the Nifty and the Sensex, near term or long term, three or five years?
I stick with that target. I think it's going to happen, maybe even sooner than I expected.
No question. One lakh over the next couple of years on the Sensex. Mark, it's a pleasure having you with us. Thank you very much for joining us, good luck with your fund, and we hope to speak with you over the next couple of months, and post-elections as well. Thank you indeed for joining us.
Thank you very much.
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