저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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인도는 장기 성장 구조(인구, 제조·수출 대체, 디지털화)가 좋아 이머징 최선호 시장이라는 주장. 모디 정권 3기 연장 기대로 정책·인프라·하드웨어 기술 투자 확대 전망. 인도 증시 유동성 부족(시총 규모 중국 대비 작음)과 정부 기업 IPO·민영화 필요성 언급. 중소형주는 리서치 부족으로 기회 존재. 인도 기업 밸류에이션 프리미엄은 이익 성장률 차이로 정당화. 은행주는 규제 리스크로 회피, 공기업(PSU) 중 철도·항공 인프라 관심 표명.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to a new edition of Market masters with a consistent history of 10 to 12% dollar cagr over the last 10 and 20 years India is now the fifth largest Equity Market in the world and continued reforms should maintain India's and I quote fastest growing large economy end of code status we have with us someone who has been a vocal champion of India for several years now Mark mobus is a force to reckon with in the Emerging Market investing Universe he's currently setting up the Mobius emerging opportunities fund so I'm very pleased to welcome him on this special program edition of Market Masters Mark great to have you back on CNBC TV8 it's always a pleasure speaking with you uh Mark so let's just get the basic hygiene stuff out of the way India still top of the list as far as the Emerging Market ranking for you goes yes it is is uh for many many reasons you know I've been a big bull on India uh but we must take a long-term View and if you look at the long term India looks terrific uh uh it's got the right population structure uh now with China slowing down India is going to be taking up the slack in terms of manufacturing and exports so India is in a very good position there's no question uh you know you were setting up a a new fund Mark and you were in of course touch with uh lots of investors who want to put money into your fund and who know what you want to do you want to put sort of you know put money into India that's the largest weight for you I mean at least uh you know where you want to go uh from a foreign investor point of view I mean how do they what is some of the push backs that you get right now we're in election season right now most opinion polls suggest uh that Mr Modi and the BJP will come back to uh come back to power for a third term uh so just wanted to sort of get your sense and feedback in terms of what you're hearing from investors uh yeah there are questions regarding uh Modi having so much power and increasing power uh but at the end of the day uh India is the largest democracy in the world it's got an incredible uh election system that goes on as you know for months and U I believe that the position of most in around the world are beginning to change uh they've of course been burned very badly in China and they're looking for another place in which to invest and India seem to be the logical choice now of course for Global Investors uh they've been making good money in Japan uh the US market has done very well but at the end of the day uh India is now beginning to outperform the US market and it makes sense for people to look at India now of course there's a problem of size um there needs to be more Equity offerings in India more IPOs and hopefully more U government Enterprises being uh listed in the market because uh as you know India has some very large government Enterprises that could be listed so that's a challenge but of course that will come I believe as Modi gets more strength politically of course you know he is interesting in digitizing the Indian economy and is interested in technology generally so we're in a very good position now with him getting stronger with a a stronger political base you know Mark I want to come to I'll get to asking you about what should we expect from the third term what would you like to see from the government in the third term because so much of the infrastructure development and spend on infrastructure sectors make in India Import substitution has been driven by government policy right it's not just Services it's now manufacturing which is uh I mean which is being built uh and that's great to see uh but before I do that let me ask you this India China question I remember I speak speaking with Rajiv J of gqg Partners they're the single largest foreign investor in India now uh and and uh he said you know the shift from you know people who invested in China and that money you know know in a in a big way coming to India it will happen but it has not happened yet it will happen in the future do you agree with that Mark that that big shift is yet to happen yes uh and the reason why it hasn't happened as big as big as it should happen is because uh the liquidity is not there in other words if you look at the size the market capitalization of the Indian market compared to the Chinese market it's completely different China is much much larger so large in s from the US and other parts of the world find it difficult to put their money too much money into India so that's the reason why I say there needs to be an expansion of the Indian Equity Market uh that means more private companies being uh ipoed but also government privatization and you mentioned infrastructure I think one area where you can have a lot more size is in the infrastructure area if you do IPOs of various infrastructure projects whether it be Bridges toll roads whatever real course the railroads in India is one area that has incredible potential for growth Mark hi welcome to the show well just uh focusing a little bit on the near-term theme of Elections combined with sectors or themes that you would probably like anything specific you mentioned infrastructure but would consumption financials be things themes that you would look up look at as a runup to elections and maybe even post elction well post elction I think uh the the uh very interesting area would be Hardware technology Hardware um as you know India is a huge exporter of software they're doing very very good in software but uh now there's a need to expand the hardware sector technology hardware and of course as people want to diversify their supply chain away from China India can take up that slack you've got the population you've got the capability and I believe that's going to be a very interesting area for expansion and IPOs by the way right so you know you did speak about a lot of Supply or the possibility of a lot of Supply in the Indian markets Etc as well Mark I wanted your thoughts on three things in particular we usually ask you to make predictions about uh markets but if you could give was a sense of what your expectations from the elections are um and what post the elections Modi 3.0 what does that look like to you and for the psus itself you hoped that there would be some more offerings coming in what would your thoughts be out here well one of the things that we're seeing of course is Modi becoming stronger politically in other words uh it looks like he's going to have a a larger uh Stronger position in the political structure of the Indian market and that is very good news for investors because it means that he's going to continue to push for uh technology in India and the application of Technology that's number one number two he's going to be pushing more for infrastructure and that's going to be of course we've seen a lot of infrastructure spending but I think that's going to be becoming much more important and critical for the growth of India so uh all of the points are in line we're in a very good position with Modi getting stronger politically uh you know you mentioned more Supply right on the equity side uh and that is perhaps uh one thing which perhap perhaps we've not seen over the last 10 years I'm talking about disinvestments do you think that'll also be picked up uh you know in the third term it could pick up uh yes uh a lot by the way a lot depends on the U ability of Modi to reduce the amount of bureaucracy uh for people who want to invest in India as you know there's quite a lot of bureaucracy for people wanting to put money into the Indian market uh for the large investors it's easier but for the smaller investors not so easy so I think that's something that uh Modi will want to work on reducing the bureaucracy and the paperwork necessary to get into the Indian market are you buying public sector Banks or public sector units in general because the PSU Enterprise crossed that 50 lakh CR in market cap we've seen a big Relentless rally out there where are you on that are you buying at current levels did you buy earlier your thoughts going forward uh normally we don't go into the banks uh and that's a a policy globally with very few exceptions uh we find that banks are subject to a lot of government regul and of course they have problems down the line not just Banks uh the public sector Enterprise in general all the public sector units yes we're looking at public sector very very closely we haven't invested yet but we're looking at it very closely because we believe that's where you can get size if you to invest what kind of themes there in the public sector space there uh I'm very very interested in infrastructure I believe that that would be a very high growth area U rail the rail sector is very very interesting and the Air Airline sector is also interesting okay well Mark uh you know we need to take a short break but before we do that uh just wanted your thoughts on the entire theme of the midcaps as well as the small caps we all know it's been phenomenal it's been remarkable in terms of the returns that we've seen for the midcaps as well as as the small caps but do you think that there should be maybe some amount of caution which could be probably seeping in do you expect those kind of returns to probably continue into this year or you're probably going to take some profits now uh that's an interesting question if you look at the US market you'll see that uh the Big 10 Big TCH sector companies are most popular and uh that's not the case in India yet that could happen but I believe that the small and midcap companies are the ones to look at because they're oftenly ignored and they're not fully researched so people who are willing to put the work in and look at these companies can really make good money and I think that's going to continue in the recent past you spoke about wari tips and netweb wanted your thoughts on if there have been more additions to that list uh that's that's a good good question but I'm not um we're now looking at them man I can't comment you're going to uh so uh you know that that fund will be set up and then you'll sort of coming but those three still remain on the radar uh Mark yes definitely yes okay and of course many more names right I mean uh in addition to that to those three names by the way Mark by when are we going to see that fund when are we going to see what the fund the the new fund which you're setting up the new fund uh that will not come into play until September October okay all right we're now going the okay now just to press on that point about valuations uh a bit longer right uh we've had uh we were talking about Supply we've had many uh instances of global companies mnc's reducing their stakes in the India entity uh in their respective India entity and uh essentially using that money and taking that money back home for V for a variety of purposes you know we had for example just to use anecdote the world poool global CEO on the record uh essentially saying that there is a big valuation Arbitrage between what the India entity trades at and what the global parent trades at so it kind of makes sense to uh use that and monetize that Arbitrage uh just your thoughts Mark I mean these are business owners uh and sort of talking about this valuation uh difference and of course I mean the implication being that valuations here are uh you know quite High relatively speaking mark of course you you can look at that all the multinationals almost that are in India the valuations are higher than what you see in their home market and there's a good reason for that growth uh you know a lot of people ask me gee India looks expensive on a PE basis but they forget that the E the earnings are growing at a much faster Pace than what you see in the US or China or anywhere else so it's Justified that these companies have a higher evaluation all right you know Mark what we'll do is uh we have a lot more ground to cover but let's just take that quick commercial break here stay with us Mark we are back with many more questions both local and a bit about the global cycle as well stay with us
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