저자: Paul · 외국인
요약 보기
영상 결론: 찰리 멍거의 바이두/알리바바(BABA) 지분 절반 매도는 공포가 아니라 세금손실 상계(tax loss harvest) 목적일 가능성이 높으며, 발표자는 BABA를 계속 보유하고 하락 시 더 매수하겠다는 입장이다. 멍거 매도 해석: 멍거가 분석이 틀렸다고 판단했다면 전량 매도했을 것이므로 절반 매도는 세금 목적으로 추정된다. 같은 맥락에서 몬니시 파브라이도 12월에 BABA를 매도했다고 언급. 세금손실 상계 설명: 이익 난 종목을 팔 때 손실 난 종목을 함께 매도해 과세 대상 이익을 상쇄하는 방식이며, 유사한 대체 종목을 사면 투자 노출을 유지할 수 있다고 설명. 발표자 본인 사례: SPY 손실을 실현하고 QQQ를 숏으로 전환해 세금 상계를 했다고 밝힘. 투자 논리: 중국 VIE 구조 리스크가 6~7개월 전보다 덜 언급되고 있으나, 중국 당국의 미국 상장 철회·미국의 중국 기업 상장 금지 시나리오가 있으며 메릴린치·찰스슈왑도 홍콩 거래소 전환 가능성을 언급했다고 함. 가치 판단: 저평가(5년 PE 16.3, 기준 22.5 이하), ROIC 10.5%, 매출 248억→1,120억 달러 성장(약 5배), 순이익 68.6억→236억 달러 증가, 자사주 매입 진행, 장기부채 370억 달러로 연간 잉여현금흐름(약 200억 달러) 기준 2년 내 상환 가능이라 8개 기준 중 7개 충족 주장. 행동 방침: 주가가 내려가면 더 매수하겠다는 장기 보유 입장. 발표자는 신규 투자자에게 종목 모방보다 과정 학습을 강조. 리스크: 중국 규제·VIE 구조 리스크, 상장 폐지 가능성, 매도 시 자금 수령 지연 가능성.
다듬은 글
charlie munger sold half of his baba position paul you own a million dollars of the stock are you scared what's going on so when we met with monash pabrai back in december he made a very very specific statement i love this yes it was great he said investors will sell for a thousand reasons and buy for only one this never crossed my mind i just thought so selling is fear but when you say it you're right maybe they're paying for maybe you out there are paying for college maybe you want to buy a car it's finally to cash in you're taking profits what's the one reason they buy i got you to make money so i don't know why charlie munger sold his baba but i can speculate okay remember one thing he didn't sell the entire position and it's kind of interesting that charlie munger and warren buffett believe in long term and the stock falls a lot so one or two things happened he looked back and said you know what i got the analysis wrong but if that's the case why only sell half if he truly believed he got the analysis wrong he would have sold the entire thing this is lightning to my brain ball because i you're right i never thought about that well yeah absolutely i mean listen guys there's no they have no problem being highly concentrated in one investment munger and buffett always talk about for the average person diversification is very important but if you're a very very astute investor who has a thorough understanding of a company or investment you should be very very concentrated so what's my speculation my speculation is baba fell a lot he had other investments in a strong market that went up a lot that he wanted to sell this might be what's called a tax loss harvest which is actually also the reason why monish prai sold his baba position in december right so what is a tax loss harvest a tax loss harvest is you have two investments company a you invested in and it went up 100 so you want to sell it you're like you know what this has reached this max i want to sell it well guess what you have a capital gain and let's say you made a thousand dollars on it in profit so you need to pay tax on a thousand bucks but you have company b company b has fallen by fifty percent and you have a thousand dollar loss if you sell both of these you get zero tax liability you made a thousand you write off a thousand it's zero now you might sit there and say yeah but i lost the investment i really like unless you find a similar investment that has the same credentials right so what this means is if you have another company company c that has all the attributes of company b the same kind of upside etc you could sell this one pay zero in tax and still buy a company that gets you the same type of investment return that you wanted a company b now this might sound complicated and i get that but it's a good way and a lot of great investors use this as a way of foregoing taxes and taking advantage of some tax losses now to offset them gains that have already been realized as well and that's why i believe he did that because if you think about it it was one of his biggest holdings and he sold it still and my speculation is because he probably had some gains along the way that he sold off as well and in order to not pay taxes he said you know what if i sell half my position i don't pay taxes on my other gains and i still have some alibaba stock and i can use that money to go buy something else i did it recently with my s p y versus q q q sale i had a big loss in sp y i sold it and shorted qq so i'm gonna get all that tax write off on my spy gains against my other gains spy loss against my other gains and still own qqq as a short which is done fabulously well did it ever cross your mind to sell your baba last no and the reason being is so then goes the next question has my thesis change on bob that's where i'm going with this sure i i keep looking at the numbers and i keep looking at the situation here's the question this vie structure which was a big thing six or seven months ago and now you never hear about it if all of a sudden china withdraws all those companies from the u.s or the u.s bans chinese companies from being publicly traded here i've already called merrill lynch mo has already called charles schwab and their exact comment was your your stock would be converted to the hong kong exchange and the only risk you has if is if you want to sell it someday it might take a couple weeks for that money after you sell it to come to you that's it that's it so the next question becomes do i believe in alibaba well one do i think it's selling cheap today relative to value yes two do i think that alibaba will be a bigger company 10 years from now than today yes revenue will be higher three do i believe they will have more profit 10 years from now than today yes and guess what they're buying shares back now at a cheap price so they're now giving me an incentive to keep my shares because they're decreasing the number of shares out there to give me more ownership of the company i still believe in this company as you guys know from our our software here if i go to baba and i click on it i look at all the data on it and i think to myself darn this is the company that made look at its history guys look at its max history it went public around 100 back in 2014.
it's at 100 today but look at the income the revenue in 2014 it did 8.24 billion in revenue it took 112 billion today 13 times more guess what it has more in profit today three times more in profit today than it did back then in revenue so it did 8.24 billion in revenue and now it's doing 23 billion in profit today this is incredible the stock is the same price think about that for a second when i when i reflect on this paul obviously when someone of this magnitude sells as a normal younger investor than you with none not as much experience i get a little shaky in my boots and i have to remind myself what you've told us is that if i liked it enough to buy it the first time and the numbers keep getting better uh or staying the same i can i can rest easy knowing i made a good decision i'm almost forced to make this decision because the numbers are so good as a value investor and it is scary that charlie munger sold half his position don't get me wrong when i heard it i was like oh well what i'd heard was somebody mentioned it to me apology here monger sold his position in bob i was like wow really and then i went and googled it and he sold half his mission still a lot but if he didn't believe in the company he wouldn't even keep any of his shares it really the second i saw he sold half i said tax loss harvest i don't know that's true or not but immediately triggered to me that that's a possibility so paul again you got to help me as a new investor show me in our proprietary software why we like the valuation of this company why we like this company why we're buying it so we have our eight pillar process right so the first thing we look at is the market cap that's not one of the eight pillars but it's a first start this is if you bought all the shares outstanding the first pillar is the five-year pe this takes the five year of net income and divides it into the market cap we wanted to be under 22.5 it's 16.3 second pillar we want the return on invested capital greater than nine percent seth it's ten and a half percent that's good they do a good job of reinvesting the capital that's invested in the business player number three we want revenue growth over the last five years so we just go to the income statement 24.85 to 112 billion dollars that is a five times growth almost put number four net income growth look at this uncle seth 6.86 to 23.6 massive growth geez number five it's the hard one people understand we want shares outstanding decreasing we go five years ago actually the six mark 2.46 to 2.7 that's an x there so they are increasing their shares outstanding but again they did announce that they're decreasing shares by buying more shares back so this number will continue to decrease okay number six you know debt is very important in a company so what i found is i want to find companies that are good at generating cash flow and they can pay off their debt very quickly so what i did was i took the five year average free cash flow so if you go back to this main page our five year average free cash flow has been about 20 billion dollars we want to multiply by five so we basically want a hundred less than a hundred billion dollars in long-term liabilities very simple so we go to the balance sheet we go to the bottom and we go to total long-term liabilities 37 billion dollars guys that means if they do two years of free cash flow they can pay it off two years of their average the last five years they're doing 23 billion a year this is less than two years they're paying off their debt this company can stick around then now obviously the last two pillars have to do with our free cash flow free cash flow is the lifeblood of the company you can do one of five things with it you guys know what they are pay down debt buy back shares pay dividends reinvest back in yourself or make acquisitions so we go right here as you guys all know we added the line here 10.25 billion to 30 billion dollars massive check guys this is a seven pillar company i think because look at the five year average free cash flow 18.4 we multiply it by 20 to get a market cap that we want to pay for the company that is 30 368 billion dollars can you remember 273 was it yeah so guys look at this so on this eight pillar tab guys it's it's seven check marks now obviously doesn't mean you go out and buy it immediately but i love the story i love everything about it again we're trying to teach a process here we're not telling you just to mimic our investments but i do own baba and i plan on owning it for a while i'm hoping for a very long time but right now i look at the company as it goes down in price i want to own more of it yeah that's it thanks paul watch this next video on the r8 build process
Comments 0