저자: Paul · 외국인
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엔비디아는 펀더멘털(매출·순이익 고성장)은 좋지만 PER 56배 등 고평가 상태다. 분석툴 기준 적정가 범위는 73~155달러, 중간 107달러로 제시되며 현재가 약 220달러 대비 하락 가능성을 언급한다. 장기 애널리스트 추정으로는 2028년 주당순이익 15.5달러 가정 시 수익률이 연 4~5% 수준에 그친다고 본다. 결론적으로 가격이 높아 지금은 매수를 서두르지 않는 입장이다. 영상은 유료 멤버십 홍보를 함께 담고 있다.
다듬은 글
check please welcome back to everything money in this video you will learn about the semiconductor company nvidia there's a lot of talk about this in the news paul the democrats are looking to pass some infrastructure because we got to stop getting our semiconductors overseas they might be plugging some money into some american-based semiconductor companies and we'll see if this plays out but we're going to give you the financials behind nvidia we will show you how to trade this company with mo moving forward and show you what stock price you should be paying using our stock analyzer tool paul tell me about nvidia so um nvidia is a great company uh as you talk about infrastructure intel's building 220 billion dollar plants one in our backyard here in columbus so we're obviously very pro there but nvidia let's just go right now and um let's just go see in video in our eight pillars so nvda pop up nvidia let's go to the eight pillars real quick all right so guys if you watch the uh our process in our past videos if you wait till the end we'll show you how to really learn the eight pillar process but these are eight pillars usually when we see the first and eighth one we're excited because every other attribute is a green check except it's is overpriced now in this one they have issued some more shares than we'd like 5.7 with that said i'm kind of okay with the company issuing shares when it's insanely overpriced like it is here 118 times five year free cash flow that's a very very high number guys we wanted to be below 20.
it's at 118. we want pe five year pe blow 22 and a half is at 114. guys keep this in mind is this expensive i don't know but in order to justify a really really high pe you need a really really high growth rate so the question to ask yourself is can nvidia grow to make up for this every other aspect we like even the shares outstanding i'm not bad with look at this debt they can pay off their debt in 2.8 years based on if they just do the last five years of free cash flow again and they're growing so let's go actually look at their income statement on our software to show you the growth all right guys look at their revenue growth 9.7 to 27 billion that's a big jump okay let's look at the net income growth three point zero five to nine point seven five guys big jumps here there are look at the growth last ten years ago they did 560 million in profit last year did a 9.75 that's almost 20 times more that's a huge growth number i want you to remember it is becoming a bigger and bigger company growing faster will be more and more difficult now one thing i want to check out i want to see did they make acquisitions along the way that might have been the reason why they issued shares so we go to the cash flow statement we scroll down and right here we look at acquisitions they had an 8.5 billion dollar acquisition in 2021 the year 2021.
so let's go look at their number of shares outstanding that's found on the income statement at the very bottom where was their where was their jump in shares outstanding it was actually back here that was the big jump so i don't think that's the reason they just had a big jump here is that concerning to me i'm not like i'm not sitting there going ignore it's not like we see other companies where they have 300 percent more shares than they did at 10 years you know now they did 10 years ago i'm not worried about this one as much as i hate shares outstanding increasing this doesn't concern me as much so this is part of our process that we look at and i want you to remember these fundamentals of growth and you can pay more for a company as a multiple but you got to get the growth there and this is why we have the software here to show you all of this paul it's good you bring this up i'm looking actually at dadorama there's been a lot of cells over four almost 400 million dollars in cells from a lot of the top investors in the world but it's amazing some people are reducing their position then other people are increasing their position by 400 so go figure but there's been a lot of sales of this company they're not in love with it at the moment well remember people sell for many many different reasons what's more important to focus on is who is buying and why am i telling you to mimic them but just like i i very much value some value investors opinions i won't go mimic them but i'll look at their moves and say am i missing something here and go try to reset it's a great way to do it show me the analyst lane let's think so guys if you watch this channel i'm not very pro watching analysts but at the same point you can look at analysts and see what you feel about them what they're saying so this is the next six years of nvidia earnings per share estimations based on number of analysts by year so for this year they're looking at for next year to look at well for this year but see you're ending january 2023 five dollars and sixty cents per share two analysts in 2028 are saying 15.50 almost tripling but you have to ask yourself let's say these guys are right multiply this by even an aggressive 20 times you're looking at a share price of 300 and 300 what's the current share price for nvidia 219 so are you willing if they're right are you willing to buy something for 219 today that's six years from now will be worth 300.
that's not a very good return oh no that's not a great return right it's about four or five percent a year it's just something to look at and observe let's go look at the revenue growth estimations by analysts 34.8 billion to 81 billion keep in mind intel this year is gonna do like 75 billion so it's still smaller than intel but the market cap is much larger than intel keep that in mind i was reading a book recently that i love guys guys remember one of our most popular videos we ever did and go look at this was we looked at tesla and said tesla at the time was 600 billion here all the companies you can buy for 600 billion dollars combined which ones would you rather have these five companies that all generate billions and billions of cash flow or tesla this is actually a very common theme amongst value investors go look at the comparison of what you can buy with that and i look at this saying why would i want nvidia which starts to grow into intel's value and guys we have a long way to go to get to this point a lot of things can happen from here all right so this is an idea but look at the earnings look at the revenue growth over the next six years it's declining because it's getting bigger and bigger and bigger all right so these are the things to do now with that said why do we talk about this so paul with all this all the analysts and all this mumbo jumbo you know we have done videos in the past when this stock was really high where you were telling us just to be patient so so in general like how can i increase my level of patience i need someone to talk to besides just listening to you all day how do i do this well so this software was specifically created because our users made a request and we followed through on it they said we want to be able to do the same analysis you do without waiting for you to make a video so we made the software the software is right here it's all on your phone it's very simple to get it includes everything here eight pillars retirement calculator stock analyzer tool eight pillar portfolio it allows you to put the 50 of your stocks into a portfolio to see how it does how it looks as an eight pillar stock exclusive video content every single day seth moe and i release content to only those users who belong to our community belong to our software and our watch list you can now set price targets and we'll show you shortly on nvidia how to determine the price you want to pay and then set a price target so the software will notify you on the app and on the computer and over email will tell you to buy the stock i love this watch list we'll get to it here in a minute oh it's incredible and then also these things are coming in but the biggest aspect the em community chat guys i get frustrated with with uh with research it's a time-consuming process we have over six thousand people in here who are all researching the same thing you can go into the chat search nvidia and go engage it'll show you exactly where people are talking about things you can engage in the conversation about nvidia somebody else has probably seen tons of other people probably seen things you haven't and you've seen things they haven't you can engage in the conversation immediately this is all available for only one dollar per day one dollar per day less than a cup of coffee guys if this increases your returns by one or two percent a year or more importantly allows you to avoid the misses of peloton palantir and the ones that don't make sense that are dropping 70 80 percent this is a no brainer it'll lead to hundreds of thousands not millions of dollars for international users the benefits of everythingman.com is you don't pay sales yet this is awesome go sign up whatever you sign up for today is locked in forever you get all this stuff as our price goes up you stay locked in a no-brainer we will cut to moe and he will show you how to trade this stock moving forward but paul the stock analyzer helps you a viewer at home and myself of course the dummies out there like me come up with what i should be paying for this company we mentioned some analyst prices but show me like just show me how we can walk through this i love this tool all right so in video we go back to nvidia we go right to the stock analyzer tool it always starts with a 10-year analysis you can do one to 20.
so mo revenue growth numbers i mean they're big in the last 10 years they're getting higher and higher but you know me i put 15 18 and 21. 15 18 and 21 revenue growth so just to keep in mind what that means at 21 revenue growth for 10 years they're gonna do 235 billion dollars in revenue in 10 years is that a lot yeah it's about three times the size of it's intel now however to most point the world is becoming more and more advanced more and more technology as the world becomes more more reliant on technology these are going to become more and more valuable inflation is kicking up is it high maybe so but the 15 doesn't seem too crazy to me so um lock it down profit margin 24 26 and 28.
so 24 in case it doesn't pan out well 26 i think a good middle ground and 28 hey if they keep doing it there it is all right what about free cash flow margin i had the same perfect guys and over long periods of time free cash flow earnings should be the same now the pe number because you're going to see 56 here guys and go oh my god 56 what did you put in there well what do you want to put in here 14 16 18.
i agree guys the larger larger the company is the harder it is to pay a high p e because it's harder to grow that's it same thing with price of free cash flow and finally return twelve and a half percent i tend to put twelve and a half percent in because it's a good margin of safety gives you a reason to go invest in it as opposed to buying an etf to make nine or ten percent very simply hit the analyze button stock price is 220 today all right it's gotta fall in half from here a low of 73 a high 155 and a middle of 107.
you might sit there and say that's insane well guys the pe is 56 in half makes it 28 which is still high but they can grow into that because they have higher growth rates you might sit there and say that's crazy paul okay that's by the way if you want to put that as your as your watch list price hit the plus right here it immediately puts it in there notify me boom you're notified when it hits 106.99 done it sounds crazy to have this fall but if you look at just the stock the chart it it had a parabolic rise i mean if you even pull back a little further paul go to the five year it's like that kind of looks crazy to me yep and guess what it was as high as recently as 346.
so it's already down 30 since it's high recently and as i always say in all these videos the the faster growing hype stocks that are more of a price are going to fall the most when the times when times are bad that's it now does that mean you can't make money off nvidia no mo does trading day trading chart reading long long-term trades has nothing to do with the fundamentals i don't care if they have negative revenue it doesn't mean i don't care if they're bitcoin you can still make money off the trading motivation it is funny paul and i'll say before we get to mobile is you're shorting the qq at the same time day trading the same stocks to make money it doesn't it's completely relevant to me they're two different strategies completely go ahead mo so another this is incredible guys when you look at these big companies like this this is under all four major moving averages again so all of these companies are getting beaten down this is something i talked about on the morning show many times we talk about these flagpole patterns where the stock has a crazy parabolic rise and creates this flagpole i said so many times at the end of last year what this thing when it shot up so fast in one month it was going to come right back down and here we are i don't know when it's going to be but it's always going to come crashing down and this was in like a two-week period so we're consolidating now at this level of 219.
guys let's pull up a candle and just see what we can do here give me one second candles and we'll see which i mean there is support in here but when this starts falling and it starts dropping below these wicks i said the same thing in the microsoft video when it starts dropping below those february 24th january 24th dates this thing is going to fall apart and nvidia is not going to be it's going to be just as susceptible as everybody else now this is a great stock to day trade 2 because it has so much volatility day to day last friday you could have traded it in the morning and in the afternoon from a short from a shorting perspective this morning if the market gets going and nvidia starts rolling with the market we're creeping towards that 80 area you can get some good buying volume get some engulfing candlesticks and go from there if you want to learn a day trade come and day trade with us we do it live a couple times a week you get to watch if you're in the video nation i'm just waiting that's all i'm doing i'm going to sit here and wait for the right price the right time the fundamentals are probably going to get are going to continue to get better but if the price is high it's possible to overpay for a good thing and i think that's the case here in a video at this price and if you want to learn more about our eight pillar process going through all the steps you can click this card in the upper right hand corner take it to a new video where we go over the eight pillars and why we use them to screen stocks as our take we'll see you next video make sure you follow thumbs up subscribe thanks for watching you
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