저자: Paul · 외국인
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워런 버핏 지표(시가총액/GDP 비율)는 현재 약 197%로 장기 추세선보다 크게 높아 주식시장이 고평가 상태라는 결론. 이 지표는 과거 1950년 이후 추세선 부근에 머문 적이 거의 없고 극단 사이를 오갔으며, 저평가 극단에서는 공포가 가장 컸다는 주장. 고평가 구간에서는 시장이 과열 정리 과정을 거쳐 조정될 가능성이 크고, 특히 고평가 기업(ARK 관련 종목 등)이 크게 하락하며 시장 전체를 끌어내릴 수 있다는 전망. 출연자는 조정이 와도 장기 투자자(20~40년)는 버틸 수 있으며, 품질 좋은 기업(현금흐름·재무구조 우수)이 상대적으로 덜 하락한다고 강조. 개인적으로 Alibaba, Facebook, Intel, Walgreens 등을 보유 중이라고 언급하며 특정 종목 매수를 권유하지는 않는다고 함. 단기 가격 전망이나 목표가는 제시하지 않았고, 주식 가격 확인을 자주 하지 말고 감정적 대응을 줄이라는 조언이 주를 이룸. 버핏은 최근 1년간 ARK를 압도했으며 장기적으로 꾸준히 투자 원칙을 지켜왔다고 평가. 영상은 자체 소프트웨어·커뮤니티 유료 구독을 홍보하는 내용을 포함.
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check please we're going to talk about warren buffett and his buffett indicator what this graph means what it should mean to you as a viewer in terms of where we're headed this indicator can give us a glimpse as to what's to come especially in terms of stock prices and the economy inflation we'll take a look at all of this and more right now paul give us your thoughts on this guys warren buffett was once quoted as saying the stock market the gdp ratio is probably the single most reliable metric at any given time on where the stock market falls in terms of valuation this has now become called the buffett indicator and what it basically is is it takes the entire stock market value now this is where it gets tricky because their numbers are all over the place in terms of what's the entire stock market a lot of people call the wheelchair 5000 and i think this metric here they're gonna show you does that but the bottom line is pick the s p 500 put the russell 3000 whatever it is as long as you do a ratio based on the gdp and you look over time you will see the metric and where it falls now the idea here is as the u.s economy grows and gdp is the basically the national income of the economy all the companies in the us's income should grow as well so if they if the values of the stock market are skyrocketing while the u.s economy isn't growing as fast they're becoming more over the stocks are becoming more overvalued and vice versa so here's a chart going back to 1950 of this this is the trend line and this is where we stand at 197 ratio of market gdp this says 52 higher than long-term trend line i've seen other mark websites like guru focus that say we're 70 plus percent over now remember guys how often are we ever at this trend line i always hear people say like oh yeah we could get back down to here no no we don't do that we either are way above or way below not way but the point is we cross 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 times the last 70 years that's it the whole point is we're either gonna be above or below when we're below this is when fear is the most uh is the highest look at how low we got here guys look at how low we got 30 percent 32 percent down in 1982.
the tech boom was 155 we got as high here as 210 215 this is insane to keep in to keep in mind they don't have us going back to 1928 the um the great depression but i think that one only got to like 130. why is this insane this is overvalued this just shows how overvalued stocks are this is crazy guys and guess what the pendulum swings from extreme to extreme this is the most extreme time in history my guess is at some point we're going to be at one of the most extreme lows of history what will that mean for a normal viewer so a lot of people might be watching and saying um hang on a second but what if values just increase they will fundamentals will get better but it's much easier for stocks to fall than for fundamentals to get better the good news for you as a viewer is you have a long-term outlook on investing 20 30 40 years for retirement which is our average user you're going to be okay because these things usually pass through every 10 or 15 years if you only have 10 or 15 10 15 years of retirement i'm not trying to scare you i'm just trying to tell you be cautious buy higher quality companies that have good cash flow and good balance sheets they will be hurt the least in this the good news is just like here the biggest falls will happen in the most overpriced companies that you've seen as i said about arc investments there they went from 160 to share down to 58 dollars a share all these companies are down 60 70 80 and they're going to go further and it will drag the rest of the market down trust me that'll happen but that's okay we need to rid the market of crap in order to get the good stuff to come to the top that's just the way it works and it might seem scary but you'll survive it better than you think the good news for you is if you're still investing money as it falls you'll be buying better companies at better prices the process that we're teaching everyone the process that we're trying to learn every single day is by good quality companies day in and day out dollar cost average they go down facebook and baba intel walgreens these are the companies that i personally own i'm not telling you to own them but i personally own because i like their potential and their balance sheets in their future and the price relative to the value and that's why i own them i don't know when they're gonna buy them i don't know they're gonna top but i do know that if i had to buy them today i would buy them today at their values so if this methodology speaks you at looking at the numbers you can have the software in the palm of your hand on your phone right now behind paul paul tell them how they get it so guys when we first started this channel two years ago one of the one of the most common questions we got was how do i analyze companies the way you do without waiting for you to make a video because i was using y charts which is a great service but very expensive so we invested hundreds of thousands of dollars and constantly invest multiple multiple five figures every single month in our software you get everything you've seen so far you get the eight pillars retirement calculator stock analyzer tool we release videos only for the users of our software and our app because this is all available on our mobile app as well you get a watch list which is coming out very shortly you get real estate calculator moment all these things that are coming out soon you get as well but most importantly guys you get this the em community because the most common thing we heard and the most common thing we all experienced was we felt alone being value investors we were ridiculed we were told you don't get it but in this community over 6 000 people we can now have conversations and have like-minded conversations today alibaba is down 10 percent and people are talking about it because it's a big holding of ours and it's a value play that we truly believe in so this community allows you to go in there have conversations there are two ways to sign up fo for our international users the benefit to everythingmoney.com directly is you don't pay sales tech yet because we're not big enough guys if this can increase your returns by one or two percent a year or decrease your losses by avoiding the big losses by one or two percent a year this will reap in your retirement no-brainer one dollar per day less than a cup of coffee is what this costs and whatever whatever price level you sign up for as we increase the price in future months you're stuck at that level you stay at the same level no brainer go sign up with all that said paul this sounds really scary i mean i'm trying to save for myself my kids i got a lot of money a lot of money i got some money we're saved for retirement i've seen it go down drastically already i'm worried what does all this mean to the viewers go look at the history of the stock market and go look at all the bad things that have happened in this country in the last 120 150 years and guess what ends up happening right stocks eventually rebound and they get at the higher levels your job is a dollar cost average their job will be to sit there and be emotionally in tune the way things are just the reality of it this is why we created all the software in this em community chat we have six thousand people in here talking about the stuff and actually sitting there discussing like hey what do we think about this it'll i literally see people saying remember what we're taught we're taught to re-evaluate and decide if it's still a good deal as the stock falls and trust me guys it is hard it's not an easy task i get that completely i still battle with it but the point is that's why we have this community built that's how we sit there and say okay wait a second if the stock market were to turn off today an hour to own facebook and alibaba at today's prices for the next 10 years and then opened and all of a sudden revalued but i'd be happy yes i would be happy and that's when i know i have to buy the company that's a very hard thing to do and if you have to if it makes you want to check every day stop checking every day don't check every day very simple if you're a recovering alcoholic and drug addict what's the first thing they teach you stay away from the people that accentuated that behavior get away from that stop looking at stop being around drugs not being around alcohol you might sit there and think i'm joking about that that's an absolute truth you're addicted to looking at your brokerage account in the stock market stop doing it this took me years it's still you're still doing it no not at all i swear paul i swear i have no clue i heard all the time for the previous of one year warren buffett's past his prime i don't hear anything about the fact that warren buffett is crushing everybody right now crushing crushing everyone right now nobody talks about that all of a sudden that information doesn't matter why it's only been a year so wait a second when ark is up for one year it's a new thing when buffett's crushing ark for one year it's oh it's just it's just a fluke that's weird dude been crushing it since the 60s since the 50s and that guy learns every single day every single day he's 91 years old and he still learns every single day so it's this patience i think to know that we'll be better and and this is like you said paul a very learned thing it's it's uh it takes time man it will never ever end but that's the joy of it the joy of it is it will never end you will never stop learning i haven't stopped learning i'll never stop learning if you think this is an end result that's going to happen i don't know what to tell you i spoke to someone and actually saw youtube about that same thing so when it's skyrocketing it's how amazing the company is and then when it falls it's well no one knew the market was going to crash how would we know market hasn't crashed it's down 15 if you think that's a crash it's not even in correction territory yet yeah that's not even a correction that's not even a bear no it's a correction ten percent of the correction bear market fair market i'm sorry yeah it's a ten percent of correction yeah come on what are we talking about here guys this is about it for the long haul stick with the long haul buffet's not an idiot his his truisms will happen forever and is he modified along the way absolutely he used to want to buy companies that were called cigarette butts where they had the last one puffing them now he tries to buy good companies with high return invested capital that have moats that are gonna be around for a long time okay so buy i've changed my method too i don't buy i don't buy small companies longer pushed them to that yeah monger pushing that if you're drawn to all this again join the community you can get the data click on the top right corner here you can see a card about the eight pillars and how we analyze the foundational aspects of a company and moving forward uh patience is a learned this is learned and we're all doing this together so let's have discipline patient investments moving forward and we can guide you and help you in our community bond with a thumbs up subscribe
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