저자: Paul · 외국인
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결론: 코스트코는 훌륭한 기업이지만 현재 주가(약 530달러)는 고평가 구간이라 신규 매수는 신중해야 하며, 단기 매매 관점에선 모멘텀 흐름을 보며 접근할 수 있다. [기업 재무·8가지 기준 점검] 8개 기준 중 주식수 감소, 부채 수준(잉여현금흐름 2.7배 미만), 순이익·매출·잉여현금흐름 성장, 투하자본이익률(ROIC) 등은 대체로 양호하게 평가된다. 다만 5년 PER 58.6, 5년 P/FCF 53.68로 밸류에이션 지표가 매우 높다고 지적. [마진·경쟁사 비교] 코스트코 영업마진 약 2.6%로 낮지만 투하자본이익률은 높다. 월마트 ROIC 약 12%, 크로거 약 6% 대비 비교 언급. [찰리 멍거 견해] 멍거는 코스트코를 가장 좋아하는 주식으로 언급하며 매도할 생각이 없다고 했지만, 진행자는 현 가격에서는 추가 매수하지 않을 것이라고 해석. [매장 성장·동일매장매출] 최근 3년 동일매장매출 성장률 6%, 8%, 16%(2021년). 2022년 신규 창고 35개(이전 5개 포함) 계획. 10-K 보고서에서 비교매장 매출 항목 확인을 권장. [애널리스트 전망·밸류에이션 시나리오] 애널리스트 기준 2030년 매출 약 3,820억 달러(연 약 6~7% 성장 수준), 주당순이익 성장은 2배 남짓. 단일 애널리스트 추정이라 신뢰도 낮다고 강조. 자체 분석 도구로 12.5% 기대수익률 기준 적정가는 약 122~220달러 범위, 현재가 530달러는 크게 높다고 제시. 진행자는 주가가 그 수준까지 떨어지지 않을 것이라는 반론에 대해 과거 사례를 근거로 반박. [단기 매매 관점] 상대강도가 강하고 150일·225일 이동평균선이 밀집해 지지되고 있어 상승 흐름 가능성을 언급. 최근 일간 변동성이 커 데이트레이딩 종목으로 적합하다는 평가. [리스크·기타] 고밸류에이션에 따른 조정 가능성, 애널리스트 추정 불확실성. 영상 후반부는 유료 커뮤니티·구독 홍보가 중심.
다듬은 글
check please hey guys welcome back to everything money today we're revisiting costco we're gonna talk about the stock the financials why charlie munger loves it we'll show you what's under the hood of this company their profit their revenue their shares outstanding we'll show you what should be paying for this company using our amazing everything money stock analyzer tool and if you can trade this stock with mo he'll guide us while using the charts with those candles and moving averages and all that and more i bring your questions to paul and mo these guys own and operate real estate businesses lots of money in stocks and they'll guide you and i and provide a mindset about how whether we should be buying or avoiding a company a great company like costco go ahead paul guys costco is charlie munger's favorite stock in the world he loves it he preaches about it low margin business but they do a great job and getting a high return invested capital so and customer experience is huge and people love it i mean tim over here loves costco i like costco i like their gas prices everything so um let's look at costco from an eight pillar perspective so here's our eight pillar software we use these eight pillars to analyze the stock say you're new to this where do i even start most of you just see a ticker price and say is it a buy or is it not we'd like to show you the foundation of what we look at when we're the eight pillars that we look at the company and its health what's under the hood paul give it to us so i i the eight pillars was my initial screen for stocks and i was doing my own investing without the channel just sit there and say here are the things i want to look at so first off costco off its all-time highs it was 5.71 now it's at 529 so not too far off by 10 percent let's go to the eight pillars tab so guys a couple x's here a few x's here one sure is not standing up slightly not a big deal remember guys we want shares outstanding decreasing especially if it's an undervalued company want them buying back shares to give you more ownership of the business we don't want them issuing shares as much now when the company's expensive yeah issue shares all you want to do i'd rather you do that than to take on some debt and all of a sudden we're on the hook for debt sell sell people over price shares low debt levels less than 2.7 times free cash flow for the debt levels free cash flow growth net income growth revenue growth high return on invested capital which is pretty hard to do i think in the retail world yeah for example kroger has a six percent uh return on invested capital much different uh kroger does yeah wow what about walmart look up walmart now guys the two areas here if you've watched our channel before the two red flags valuation metrics the five-year pe is 58.6 and the five-year price of free cash flow is 53.68 that's pretty high i mean that's the kind of numbers you don't even see on big tech companies i mean this is a very very high multiple now charlie munger loves the stocks a lot of people are out there going oh i'm gonna buy it it's like well i don't know if charlie munger is buying more of a stock market he said i love this company i would not but i but based on the way that i invest i would not be adding to it right now i said i would not be buying it right now but he said i do not foresee myself ever selling it either so charlie's just being why time things he's like listen i have a good company i don't know what's gonna happen and by it might double in price and from that standpoint maybe by then by the time there's a correction the valuation's double the fundamentals double so why sell it so he's doing the smart thing there so what we're looking at here is i want you guys to see the income statement oh i want you to see the main part look at this margin 2.6 percent what was walmart's return invested capital uh walmart is at 12.
oh wow yeah and they're what margie oh yeah walmart is a 2.4 percent margin kroger is at 1.2 yeah so guys this is all about the experience costco has a great user experience when people go there they love it i mean mo loves it tim loves it seth are you a fan no not at all but that's why i'm surprised that there's this fandom behind this silly company though it's like it's incredi so it is incredible i went i actually got them delivered from costco last night now they have high-end brands like creed cologne hermes um lemaire it's a fantasy i'm surprised hermes allows that to be sold valentino it's incredible kathy ireland kathy ireland i don't know what that is she's a it was her case she was part of kmart you know kathy ireland is well she was very famous before cartoon and i would have believed you look up kathy ireland she's a smoke she was like the girl from when we were in high school right keep going okay so what we have to do here now yeah wow exactly thank you very much mo very beautiful she's on the cover of forbes oh yeah she did this line with kmart and she made a ton of money supermodel super mogul so guys the stock is very famous very exciting this the company everybody loves it but one thing i want you to do with all retail i want you to go to the metrics page of our software scroll to the bottom hit annual reports i want you to find the 10k before you invest in any retail business this is going to take you right to the scc website and it's going to show you exactly the 10k right here you need to find the comparable store sales this is so important in retail what that number does is it tells you for companies that have been around for at least a year and every company has a different idea but it's basically what company the stores have been around for at least a year how are their sales done have they grown have they not grown because costco is looking to increase its number of stores right so you want to make sure that the stores that are open and have been open are still increasing sales now the benefit is inflation's happening prices are all going up so naturally so compare the growth and sales at some point to inflation too you want to make sure they're making strides there but this is a very important factor in retail anytime you have retail locations you want to look at same store sales and make sure look at dick's sporting goods we did the other day yeah they had amazing same store sales from even comparable to 2019 before covet happened they had 5.3 percent increase in same store sales so guys i actually found the data the 10k very simple i control f hit comparable found it right here now the last three years comparable sales u.s canada international and total company six percent growth eight percent growth sixteen percent growth wow sixteen percent growth from twenty twenty remember stores were shut down in 2020 so 2021 was expected to have a big jump but even to see an eight percent growth in 2020 compared to 2019 with how much of the year they weren't even open and they were one of the first companies that have a strict mass policy if you remember that yes they were they were one of the very first companies to do that so these are very strong same store sales the next thing i'd want you to do what you're going to find right now is number of locations so one of the areas i found in the 10k is capital expenditures and they talked about we opened 22 new warehouses last year and two relocations in 2021 and we plan to open additional 35 including five relocations of 2022.
okay these are important aspects to me hearing those numbers i think to myself okay that's good reasonable growth there's a lot of growing a lot of fast growing areas and southea and the south part of the united states and western part united states they're gonna have to grow as they grow outward more warehouses and relocations definitely helps with shipping that stuff all over the country oh one thousand percent our amazon seller for our product they're opening up a new arizona warehouse and it's really gonna help us with california getting stuff out well if you remember years ago amazon was spending so much in capital expenditures because of these distribution centers and it's now paying off even though this don't make money shipping stuff but either way the point is they're opening stores but it's not like 100 stores so you can sit there and get this information the 10k or talk to our community about it so speaking of which guys our users asked and we delivered we made the software for them we created all this this software includes th watch list guys it's all available on your mobile phone the exclusive video content every single day we release videos just to people on our software and desktop and mobile phone it's directed at them it's from seth moe and i you get access to us you get everything you've seen here plus what that's coming out there's more stuff coming out every single day but if you felt alone paul that chat the biggest thing we did we created this everything money community chat over 6 000 people are in it and they're talking every day you can go in there and actually search for costco have conversations you don't want to read a 10k i don't blame you i don't either go in there split it up with people talk to people what have you found oh everything is a google search away and people will aggregate their in their information together and be able to talk about it we found that everyone was like us feeling alone in their investing journey this allows everybody to be together from all over the world to talk about the exact same ideas now there's different opinions but it allows you to bounce ideas off each other international users it's so easy to do go sign up whatever price you sign up for today as we increase the price the future you will not go to that new level it's a no-brainer if you're able to make one or two extra percent per yea this extra retirement go sign up now one dollar per day paul what do i pay for this company in terms of ticker price is what we need to know so guys we talked earlier about charlie munger loving the company but wouldn't buy at this price so i pulled some analyst expectations in the company these are the earnings per share expectations of the future this is the revenue expectations last year's revenue estimates are 220 billion dollars and in 2030 they're expected to do 382 billion dollars so an increase of about what sixty percent seventy percent over the next nine years that's not big growth so just keep that in mind this premium of 50 times revenue and profit sorry profit and free cash flow probably is a little high look at their earnings per share they're only expected a little over than double based on analyst expectations and by the way guys in the last years it's only one analyst so you're taking one analyst information guys take it with a grain of salt i don't know how good these analysts are they might be great they might be bad i don't know but it provides some sort of framework for you to look at and say okay how can i be conservative maybe you're going to be conservative and look at the low numbers by the way look at the deviation look at august look at year end august 2025 the price the earnings per share difference is 17 to 23 dollars a share that's a big difference so always keep that in mind the future is unknown so what we did we created our stock analyzer tool the most popular part of our website where we can make our own estimates so i'm going to go in moe's going to challenge you in a couple three five and seven percent same okay profit margin 2.2 2.4 and 2.6 okay free cash flow are going to do the exact same thing p e 13 15 17.
paul it's 42 right now i know and guess what it's not gonna grow fast guys even the most aggressive of assumptions assumed five or six percent a year in revenue growth the next 10 years that's not a lot if you think it's a high growth company you're bananas hit the analyze button and i always do 12.5 return because that provides a good margin of safety and a reason to invest in an individual company versus etf and look at this a low of 122 a high of 220.
current price 530. paul it'll never get to that price do me a favor go through our library of 1300 plus videos and look at all the times i was told in the comments the price will not go that low and look how many times that actually happened and we haven't even hit a bear market yet yeah you keep telling me that i'm like oh things are bleak paul you're like things haven't even started it hasn't started yet this is the call before the storm it's so funny people are just messaging me like okay we're at the bottom let's go buy them i love i saw that in yahoo i saw a market watch every day they're like um is march the bottom i'm like bottom of my what my dad just texted me as we were making this and he's like you need to go and start looking at these companies i'm like what it's over just do what i do with my father just lie to them and say you bought it all i got them all that's what i did my father like paul look at this great coming i'm like oh yeah i bought something the problem would happen when the one out of 30 like tripled in price he's like i absolutely bought it i just lie but were people trading good news is my the only person who watches my family is my cousin yusuf and i swear to you if you tell a soul i will murder you he always tested me when i commented about him on her channel if you want to trade costco at a quicker pace with day trade swing trade momentum long term mo can guide you in the bid and ask nation mo what's going on over there so this is funny i saw this story while i was reading for the morning show with all the turbulence that happened during the pandemic and now with russia ukraine they just keep they're sustained they keep going up they've gained like seven percent in the last couple days or something like that but the point is pay attention to companies like this i like to call these companies relative strength companies they are they have they have they are strong relative to the rest of the market so pay attention to them let's see if we can get this red line to start turning up and heading toward that sweet spot and move towards these all-time highs that would be great um put on a watch list let the stock choose a direction from its trend and then go from there go long or short tend to think that this thing might be along if you don't want to do something long term come over here to swing trading chart the good thing that you have is your major moving averages are right on top of each other i just circled three lines it's your 150 and 25 day moving average it's gonna be very strong to drop below those levels that gives me more i don't know what to say more confidence that what i said on the previous chart is going to happen it's going to stay right here and it's going to move towards the top so pay attention to this stock long term now paul mentioned this earlier in the video this is a stock that we day trade a lot even though it's 500 and some dollars a share every single day it has movement look today it had movement we didn't trade this today did we paul uh i don't know i didn't i didn't trade it it it had great engulfing candlesticks coming in consistent volume and it was over 80 and you could have had a heck of a day and to be honest if you bought it this morning at oh well i guess it was a little after 12 o'clock you are still in this thing and you are still making money you would have purchased this at let's call it 520 and now it's at 532 dollars a share so you're still in this and every day you can go short on it you can go long on it this is a great stock to have in a day trading portfolio especially if you can spend 500 bucks a share if you're drawn by having a new system maybe a new process to investing click on the upper right hand corner here you can follow along in a more deeper video about the eight pillars and why we choose these metrics moving forward with stocks that's a take on costco follow thumbs up subscribe and you'll see us next video thanks paul for your insight you
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