저자: KevinHassid또는진행자Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프의 Hassett 연준의장 지명 가능성 약화(Walsh 확률 상승)로 불확실성 확대. 연준 1월 28일 회의는 동결 가능성 높음. 노동시장 데이터는 견조, 모기지 금리 하락 기대. 나스닥100은 627 저항 실패로 약세 기술적 신호. 지정학(이란, 그린란드, 대법원 IEEPA 판결) 불확실성은 대체로 저가매수 기회로 봄. 장기적으로 Walsh 지명 및 AI 부채 리스크에 경계. 모기지 관련 종목(Rocket, LDI, Figure) 강세 선호.
다듬은 글
I see Kevin's in the audience and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today. I actually want to keep you where you are if you want to know the truth. Kevin Hassid is so good. I'm saying, "Wait a minute. If I move him, these Fed guys, certainly the one we have now, they don't talk much.
I would lose you." It's a serious concern to me. The next two weeks are going to be really interesting, and you should mark your calendar for the catalyst coming up. First, we're going to get some of the initial data for January to see how is the labor market actually doing. Are the challenger and monthly ADP reports showing a rebound in December going to continue?
And what is the Federal Reserve going to show us on my birthday, January 28th? Probably a big fat pause, which is pretty disappointing. But we also now have a much greater chance of getting Kevin Walsh as Fed chair because this morning Donald Trump told us that Kevin Hasset should stay where he is. And Donald Trump essentially told us the quiet part out loud.
Donald Trump said he wants his shill to stay at the NEC, the National Economic Council. Donald Trump said, quote, "I want to keep you where you are. If you want to know the truth, if I move him, these Fed guys, certainly the one we have now, they don't talk much. I would lose you." In other words, I won't have my shill.
So, as a result, we are now seeing the odds of Hasset becoming the Fed chairperson. absolutely plummet. Uh we went down from about a 36% chance with Kevin Worsh at 44%. Hasset now down at 16 and Walsh all the way up at 60. Waller did get a little bit of a bump, but not much. I still maintain that Waller or Myin would be the best choices and Myin is down here at less than 1%.
Now, this would be a shocker if somebody actually played that Myin would would be the choice. If you think about it, Myin would be the most vocal shill for Trump with a brain because Myron actually uses an economic argument for why we should preempt rate cuts. And Myron's not the only one saying that.
Bowman this morning came out as well and said, "If we pause in January, we should be really careful about how we signal that pause because we should be taking preemptive work on the labor market." And that's what obviously is going to make next week's weekly data. Tuesday morning very interesting. Markets are of course closed on Friday.
So it's a 3-day weekend. And at the same time, as these next two weeks continue, we'll probably continue to see mortgage rates fall, which is great for real estate, but we'll also be faced with that geopolitical uncertainty, which can often create a buy the dip opportunity. More on this in just a moment.
First, take a look at some of the sticks. The NASDAQ 100 is allergic to 627. Once again, we couldn't hold 627 yesterday. The alpha report yesterday morning suggested watch at open. If we reject holding 627 and if we do, wait for a retest. It's bearish. So, what happened? We dropped out of 627. Retest, reject, reject, reject, re like perfect rejection right here.
You can't make it up. It was the easiest technical analysis. This is the stuff we point out every single day in the alpha report. The other thing that we did is we said this morning that figure had a good shot. If it held green for the first few minutes, it had a good shot of memeing today. Look at this.
If you bought figure even at, you know, 9:34, 4 or 5 minutes after, you would still be up roughly 10% on the day with how much it rallied since. We bought this back at IPO at 30 bucks. It keeps going. I think probably the next six weeks are going to be really good to these mortgage plays. Here's another play of ours.
LDI up 18%. This is a billion-dollar company. It's tiny. The the momentum is just beginning on these puppies. So now I I do think they will settle down because that MBS enthusiasm from Trump buying MBS's will fade probably after April. So we'll get earnings in April. Yay. Wow. Big refinance boom. But some of that will fade unless we get weaker jobs data.
Uh if we get stronger jobs data, it's good for the soft landing, but it does indicate that we could actually see rates move back up again and then you'll see some of this enthusiasm for mortgage companies come down. So just be cautious in how you trade these. But I'm very excited because I've got large exposures to uh Rocket Mortgage, LDI, Figure, and they're killing it with course members right now.
That said, remember you can join by going to meet me Kevin.com. Get lifetime access. Let's understand the other uncertainties that we have right now and announcements that we're going to be getting from Davos. See, Davos is coming up on the 19th and Kevin Hasset told us this morning that Trump plans to announce 401k investment options for homes.
Now, many of you might already know that you could borrow against your 401k to uh buy rental to buy real estate to buy a home yourself. Uh and then you don't pay the penalties that you would otherwise pay, but there are often fees involved for doing this. So Kevin Hassid is now shilling this idea of suppose you take that 10% down and you take that 10% equity and put it into a home.
This is then really interesting because what you do is you're instead of borrowing against your 401k, you're actually in like co-investing in your home with your 401k. And if you then go sell that property, those gains would actually be in your 401k and deferred until you paid taxes when you start withdrawing at 59 12.
Now, we don't yet know all of the details for this, but that's my sort of p piecing the puzzle together here along with the other stimulative argument that we've been seeing from Republicans. See right here, the Republicans have been pitching in the making the American dream affordable again. Proposal number five is establishing a home savings account to existing Trump account structure, allowing individuals to leverage other tax advantaged savings account to make it easier than ever before for working Americans to save towards owning their first home.
So, this is very interesting. A lot of uh new options for either investing in stocks or investing in real estate, which is beneficial to both. Doesn't mean there aren't risks left in the economy, but it's worth paying attention to these. I personally think a big risk that we have right now is that we're going to end up getting a Kevin Worsh as a Fed chair.
Now, the economist thinks that the real risk right now is that with only few firms making reliable profits from artificial intelligence, there is a risk we face a credit meltdown that could rock the entire financial system and the economy more broadly. And then there are going to be companies going around picking up the pieces.
Totally agree with this, by the way. But Kevin Dorsh won't be a tool for helping us get out of that hole. In fact, in 2008, he made the very mistakes that we should be avoiding in a Federal Reserve. If you go to a video that it made about uh Kevin Walsh, you can see a full video on it. I'll show you what it's called so you could look it up yourself and you could go to the different segments of it.
But the video was posted about a month ago and it says, "Trump picking Kevin Worsh for Fed chair would be a disaster." That's the title of it. So, you could look up that title. But in that video, we go through and we show how Kevin Walsh, in the middle of the collapsing financial crisis of 2008, wanted to raise interest rates to save the economy.
That's who Kevin Worsh is. That's the schmuck who has the greatest chance of being Fed chair right now. And I personally think one of the reasons why the NASDAQ 100 fell today right here was not only because of the allergy the NASDAQ 100 has against the uh 627 level but because of the uncertainty of what happens if we actually get Kevin Walsh and then we end up needing to rely on the Fed.
Kevin has sets a wet blanket. We know that he would just be a shelf for Trump. Kevin Vor would probably be better for credibility, but he would be bad in an emergency. You want Kevin, you want Chris Waller. That's who you want. An economist at heart who maintains Federal Reserve credibility and stands for preempting a labor market collapse.
That's how you could potentially keep kicking the can down the road of this recession, which is exactly what Trump wants. He wants to run the economy hot to quote forestall a recession. I say the word quote because that's exactly what Kevin uh um Mr. Myron said. Myin tells us we want to forestall a recession.
That's the mo. They're saying the quiet part out loud. No, there are recessionary impetuses, but we could stay bullish in the short term, especially on like mortgage companies because of the current choices the federal government is making, mostly Donald Trump's stimulative actions, which we'll see more of those over the next few months.
And I wouldn't be surprised if we do end up getting a reconciliation 2.0 style bill. All of that is positive and bullish, but the big test comes on Tuesday and then with the announcement of the Fed chair. In addition to the chance that we're still going to see a strike against Iran by the end of the month, especially as we move our carrier strike group into the region and as concerns grow over Greenland, understand the catalyst that we have for the next few weeks.
We are catalyst heavy for the next few weeks. What do we have? Supreme Court on AIPA. This creates short-term uncertainty, right? We have uh Fed choice WSH versus Waller, right? Which would be Waller would be good. I would say Wsh would be bad. Uh okay, that's my opinion. So, I should make a little note that that would be my opinion.
What else do we have? Weekly uh jobs data on Tuesday. We have the Fed pause and uh how they describe that pause on Jan 28 that's you know bearish bearish uh bearish and hawkish right this is you know just uncertainty until we get it because we don't want to just rely on government data we want to rely on some of that private data this right here is uncertainty right the Supreme Court we already know is uncertainty but what else is uncertainty Greenland is uncertainty.
Uh and then of course we have Iran strikes uncertainty. Now the bottom two are usually by the dips, right? Generally geopolitical stuff is a buy the dip. So right here we would say usually uh buy the dip. This right here is usually by the dip. Supreme Court on AIPA is by the dip. Great news. if canned uh if tariffs are canned because I think in midterms Trump's not going to do much.
Waller is bearish. Waller is straight bearish or sorry saying this wrong. Walsh is straight bearish and uh and then of course we don't know. We we'll see what happens here. But of course we're going to get some bearish posy. So there's plenty of a reason to see why we're not getting you know enthusiasm in markets right now on all-time highs.
There are plenty of uncertain catalysts. Of course, you could also argue that Venezuela is another unknown uh still unknown what's going to happen with the regime over there just like Iran is still an unknown. So, we've got a lot of uncertainty. A lot of these things come to a head within the next two to four weeks as we get decisions, data, the Fed meeting, and then of course a choice by Donald Trump.
So, not a surprise we're not seeing deals here. Now, there are deals on other stocks. I mean, if you actually look, you know, people are like, "Oh, Kevin, stocks are at all-time highs." I don't like Microsoft. I don't own Microsoft, but understand that Microsoft is about to hit a 52- week low. You know, if we fall down over here to 428 and we hold that for a couple more months, we're going to be at 52- week lows on Microsoft, and this company prints freaking cash.
It's crazy. Again, I don't own them, so I'm not trying to shill them. Like gosh, I I tell you when I own stuff because I I want to be as transparent as I can, but uh you know, the the market has almost kind of priced perfection back here when we were in the midst of the rate cutting cycle. And this is the problem.
The market loves getting rate cuts. That's when we hit all-time highs, but we're about to go into a cycle of no rate cuts. So, this is what I call cautious optimism, right? This is why I'm at a six on bareb. I'm cautiously optimistic. Most issues above will create shortterm dip by opportunities. Uh longer wash is a longerterm issue.
A longerterm red flag canary in the coal mine along with you know OpenAI overspending. Uh those are long-term issues, right? But most of the stuff up here is just short-term drama, uh, which creates opportunities. Now, we have a 3-day weekend coming up. Uh, and then we're going to be walking into, of course, the other catalyst, which is going to be, uh, at the end of the month, we're going to have another massive price increase on both the, uh, meet Kevin alpha report.
That's where you can see my fundamental analysis uh, on uh, on individual stocks. We do this every day the market is open, but also the reinvest AI with our valuation AI now in progress. And that's going to be a really big gamecher. So, I'm very very excited about that. Uh because this this is going to allow us to value every property in the United States that's on the market and tell you where you can get the most net worth anywhere in the country with a snap of a finger.
Really an incredible product. We need to stop selling the lifetime membership for this because uh I I think people are going to be very willing to pay monthly for this or, you know, quarterly or whatever we decide to do. So, uh, that gives you a breakdown roughly of what's going on in markets right now.
You do have, you know, some yapping, like miscellaneous yapping, like Ashley Stlair is suing Elon Musk. Uh, this is not a surprise for sort of the declo pictures. You know, this the lawsuits take years to litigate. Anyway, OpenAI and Microsoft don't get dismissal uh on the early phase of the case that Elon Musk has against them for OpenAI becoming a profit company, essentially a for-profit.
So, that'll take years more to litigate. We've got Bitmine Immersion throwing $200 million into Mr. Beast uh and and Beast, you know, Industries, but you know, they just raised $7.6 6 billion in stock, which is an amazing offering that Tom Lee pulled off here. In fairness, you know, they're down about $3 billion on their Ethereum purchases.
They were down as much as $5 billion. So, they're actually up from the hole. See, here's the $5.2 billion they took in unrealized losses. They're actually up to now only like a $3 billion loss. Still a lot, but $200 million is really a rounding error. But a lot of people were pretty upset with the presentation uh that Tom Lee gave because it was really like, yeah, Mr.
Beast is popular, right? You might think we've gone off the rails, but he's popular, right? I hate to summarize it like that, but that's really what what I saw of the conference felt like. Of course, you get more uncertainty around the Federal Reserve here from people like Mr. Tis who argue that hey we're not going to confirm any Fed chair choice from Donald Trump until we stop these inquiries into the Federal Reserve which you know Pyro's staff apparently sent emails to the Federal Reserve saying hey let's hop on a call and the Fed is like this is unprofessional we don't want to talk to the DOJ if they're talking to us like this so the Fed just purposefully ignored them uh we lowkeyed it they say and uh and and then of course you know they ended up coming out with their subpoena because they felt ignored.
All this is just drama and uncertainty in the short term. Big key now is how do we get through the labor market in the face of all of these uncertainties. Labor keeps holding up the way it has been in December. These are all clear buy the dip opportunities. Uh January is layoff month though, so we'll have to see how much we get in January in terms of layoffs just because, you know, obviously you're going to get seasonal layoffs.
Uh which does indicate we'll have some really fat seasonal adjustments. And so if we go negative beyond the seasonal adjustments, that's where the problem comes from. you know, Greenland. I personally see this as not much of an issue because I think I think Donald Trump is mostly bluffing on all this and he's doing it because he's trying to negotiate.
He'll end up negotiating some kind of lease of some kind of edge of land along northern Greenland. Greenlanders will make a bunch of money. Greenlanders will still own Greenland and everything will be fine. But all the drama in the meantime, like these threats of tariffs and stuff against countries that don't go along with the the Greenland takeover, uh, I think that's just part of Donald Trump's chaos theory and his negotiating.
So, that's my take on what's going on in the world today. Hopefully, that's useful to you. Remember to go to meet Kevin.com to check out the alpha membership and go to houseack.com or reinvest.co to check out Reinvest AI. Thanks so much for being here, folks, .
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