저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 지금 랠리는 마지막 랠리가 될 가능성이 크며, 금·은·농산물 등 실물자산을 보유하되 미국 기술주(팡)는 매도 대상으로 본다. 시장 분위기: 연초 열광→공포→재반등 등 감정이 짧은 기간에 빠르게 순환했다. 6월 저점 대비 10% 이상 반등했으며, 기술적 요인과 원자재 가격 하락이 반등 배경이다. 랠리 전망: 비관론이 커지면 다시 낙관이 오는 패턴이며, 당분간 랠리가 이어질 수 있으나 이번이 마지막 랠리라고 본다. 과거 긴 상승장 끝에 투자자가 몰리며 주가가 과열되는 패턴이 반복돼 왔다고 설명한다. 본인은 공매도나 매도를 하지 않고 큰 랠리를 기다리는 중이다. 원자재·실물자산: 부채 급증으로 중앙은행이 결국 돈을 더 찍을 것이며, 이때 실물자산(쌀, 은 등)이 유리하다. 공급 제약도 원자재 강세 요인이다. 은은 최고점 대비 70~80% 하락해 금보다 저렴하다고 보고 은을 선호한다. 금·은: 금 보유를 유지하며 자녀에게 물려줄 계획이고, 버블이 되지 않는 한 팔지 않겠다고 밝힌다. 은은 적정 가격에 매수할 의향이 있다. 달러: 미국 달러는 안전자산이 아니며, 위기 시 과대평가될 수 있어 보유하되 매도 타이밍을 노린다고 설명한다. 가상자산: 정부가 독점을 잃지 않으려 할 것이므로 암호화폐가 화폐로 성공하기 어렵다고 본다. 미국 연준·부채: 현재 하락장은 평생 겪은 최악의 약세장이 될 수 있으며, 전 세계 부채가 거대해 다음 약세장이 더 심할 것이라고 주장한다. 중국: 부동산 버블이 터지며 경제 문제가 이어지겠지만, 미국도 20세기에 여러 위기를 겪고 성장했듯 중국도 극복할 것이라 본다. 부동산 버블: 인도 등 여러 나라의 부동산 버블은 결국 터지며, 버블이 보이면 잘 아는 사람만 활용할 수 있다고 조언한다. 3년 전망: 3년 롱은 은(또는 농산물), 숏은 미국 주식시장의 팡(기술주)이다.
다듬은 글
the Jim Rogers is the author Street smarts adventures and uh on the road and in the markets joining in right now to give us a sense as to the outlook on equities what his view is as well on the commodity space good to have you on board Jim thanks much for taking time out um just take a look at the market set up and ever so different from what we've witnessed just about a month ago in terms of the landscape given the fact uh that now the fears seem to be with respect to the dollar Index Rising as well as what may happen with foreign institutional investors who have now turned around and continued to buy what's the overall landscape for India looking like for the equity markets I think as I told you last time you know there's a lot of pessim has been a lot of pessimism around and usually when there's a lot of pessimism something comes along to make people optimistic again that seems to have happened people think the central banks are going to calm down now we have optimism so we're probably going to have a rally for a while uh I I have not sold short anything I have not sold anything I am waiting for this big rally Jim um why is the volatility this year in Global Financial markets so high beginning of the year it was Euphoria then came the fear now there is a comeback we've seen all emotions but perhaps getting played out in less than 8 months fear excitement greed Euphoria bubble realization am I missing one anything sounds like Bollywood doesn't it that's what India is no no we've had yes you you're exactly right but remember we had 12 years I'll use the us we had 12 years in the US of a big rally we've never had such a long bull market in American history so of course everybody got excited they always get excited at the end of a long bull market uh then things started calming down we had pessimism huge pessimism because of inflation and other things now it looks like maybe the inflation or the pessimism is breaking but this will be the last rally the coach just remember this is probably the last rally you referred to it last time you said look rally was coming it could be because of technical factors it could be because of geopolitical factors I think technical factors and a decline in commodity prices have led to this comeback from the June low of about 10% plus but when you say this will be the last rally why are you of the view that this could be the last rally well because all the sides that we've seen before in this movie new investors are coming in they're all saying oh I've just discovered this new thing called the stock market it's fun and you can make money and it's easy and they're bidding up crazy stocks crazy stocks are going through the roof no all of this has happened before it's not the first time I've seen this rodeo and it's happening again but usually towards the end stocks go crazy uh remember previous uh bull markets in the end they go crazy everybody comes piling and spacks you know spaxs have been around 300 years then spaxs come back it's all happened before Jim so is it still a lot of silver some gold lot of rice and lot of sugar in your backyard well again I'm not I have bought I own Commodities as you know and commodities certainly are going to do well because of Supply constraints that are developing and the central banks will print more money eventually because that's all they know to do when we have the recession they will Panic they will print more money and when there's a lot of money printing the thing to own main thing to own are real assets whether it's rice or silver whatever it is you should own real assets okay own real assets yeah you know know you've of course in the past said that silver and agriculture probably the least dangerous in the next two to three years but Jim try help our viewers understand what we're seeing right now especially with the US Bond markets the way the dollar is also strengthening what can this mean for Commodities and safe havs like gold and of course silver well whenever you have money printing it leads to price Rises of real assets it's pretty simple it's a historic fact that people can look up and that's what's happening now you may say why would you own the US dollar and I own a lot of US dollars as I think you know because when things gets turmoil when we have turmoil people look for a safe haven they think the US dollar is a safe haven for historic reasons it's not it's not but I own a lot of it because during the turmoil people will reach for the US dollar it'll get overpriced and I hope I'm smart enough to sell it okay US dollar is not a safe haven you're reiterating that what about gold uh Jim what's the view here well I own gold I mean how can I not own gold I've own gold for many years my my plan is for my children to own my gold someday I hope I don't ever have to sell my gold but if gold turns into a bubble of course I'll have to sell it someday but I should ask you about gold I I mean India India knows more about gold and silver than any country in the world but I own both and don't plan to sell either unless they turn into a bubble fair enough I know you own gold I know you continue to remain very bullish I want to ask you about other asset classes that you want to pass on to your children but before that you've been fairly categorical about your view regarding crypto um and you know that's something that uh you don't believe in at all if you could just reiterate that theory well my view on cryptos you say I don't believe in it it's not it's not the question of belief my analysis is that if they become successful as money governments will react governments do not want to lose their Monopoly and governments will do something the American government and every government is working on crypto money but when money is on the computer the American government is not going to say okay this is your money now but if you want to use use that money you can that's not the way governments think that's not the way bureaucrats think they want control and they want to know everything Jim Rogers you've been in the market for about more than 27 years three bare markets you said this has been the worst bare Market perhaps in your lifetime having said that you've also blamed the US fed for a lot of what we're seeing in the markets right I am going to not to ask you about the Jackson Hall Symposium later this this week uh lot of chatter what is the US fed going to do can it finally be ahead of the curve can it finally stop overreacting what are your expectations well if it's the worst bare Market in my lifetime it's going to be the worst in your lifetime too I assure you I've seen plenty of bare markets but there was a big bare Market in 200 2008 because of too much debt well since then the debt has skyrocketed everywhere so next bare Market has to be the worst in my lifetime I mean I think I'm stating a simple fact because gigantic debt is built up around the world I mean even China has debt now China didn't have much debt last time so debt is huge we have to have the worst bare Market in my lifetime I I'm just trying to tell people to do a little research I don't want to scare people but they need to understand what's going on what are some of the other assets then that you'd like to pass on to your children apart from gold which you said that you own I'll pass on gold and silver if I were passing on anything today it would be silver Silver's much cheaper Silver's down something like 70 or 80% from its all-time high you know gold is 15% below its all-time high I I will buy both at the right price but at the moment I would prefer silver to gold I mean go around India you'll see a lot of silver in India you'll see a lot of gold in India for next 3 years and that's a reasonable time frame if you let's say had to long just one commodity or one currency what would be that threeyear long trade for you and what would be that threeyear short trade for you imagine Jim Roger comes to India and before he comes to India on a threeyear long holiday he is allowed to do two things long one trade short one trade and forget about those tra trades for three years which would be those traes I would love I would love to come to India for a three you know I've told many people it's a single best country in the world to visit if you can only visit one country it should be India so I'd love to come for three years oh my gosh the food the the sites the man-made sites the natural sites the women as you know they win the beauty contest all the time oh my gosh wouldn't that be wonderful uh the one thing I guess I would buy would be uh silver or or AG well silver maybe agriculture the one thing I would sell would be the American Stock Market the fangs you know the technology stocks in America Jim how will China change the Matrix this decade China was the big demand Factor the driving factor for global economy for last couple of years I would say for last one and a half decade nobody knows what and how that economy will unfold it's a large economy so the direction in which China would move or the economy would unfold it will have a impact on supply chain consumption metal prices global geopolitics policymaking everything what do you mean nobody knows ET knows e knows everything that's why I watch ET uh well China had a huge bubble in property that bubble is finally popping and it's affecting the entire economy in China but and China will probably continue to have problems for a while but I would remind you that in the 20th century America had many problems including many recessions and depressions on the way to being a great success China will have problems but they will come out of it okay if you ask me what about um the property markets what about real estate The View on Indian real estate well again you should watch ET they will tell you uh as you know at least what I read there's been a bubble in some Indian property and whenever there's a bubble it always pops eventually either interest rates go higher or prices just get too high there are various property bubbles around the world Korea New Zealand many places uh but all property bubbles eventually pop and when you see a bubble if you're smart maybe you can play it but you better be very good because all bubbles pop even in India even in India property bubbles pop eventually okay Jim Rogers great to have you on the show as always uh sticking to his views when it comes to Silver in particular gold doesn't want to see US dollar as a safe haven even though that is certainly the case at the moment uh great is get always to talk Commodities with her well if I get to India we'll go buy some silver okay we look forward to that watch some Bollywood as well and watch some Bollywood that was is opening comment right India and Bollywood thank you thank you
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