저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 국채 10년물 금리가 5%대에서 5% 아래로 하락한 것은 AI 투자 불확실성에 따른 안전자산 선호 때문이라고 진단. 기술주는 약세지만 자금이 헬스케어·금융·유틸리티 등 방어주로 이동 중이며, 전반적으로 실적 기반 강세장은 지속된다는 견해. 중간선거와 중동 상황 이후 저가매수 기회를 기대. 연준은 이번 회의에서 인상하지 않을 가능성이 크고, 12월 25bp 인상과 내년 초 추가 인상을 예상. 유가에는 지정학적 불확실성 프리미엄이 있으나 호르무즈 해협 원유 공급은 전쟁 전보다 많다고 진단.
다듬은 글
Ed Yadeni. He is president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research. Ed, uh, you know, I want to start off with bond yields because what we've seen on the US tenure has been quite sharp, right? We were at 5.1 5.2 at the start of the week. We're currently sitting sub 5% on the 10 year and of course the 30-year and the 2-year have followed suit.
What's playing out in your opinion? Was it overheated in terms of the bond yield? Was it oversold? Well, I think we are seeing a flight to quality. Clearly, uh investors over the past uh certainly over the past day and for the past week or so have gotten increasingly anxious about the AI trade. They're very confused about all the spending and whether the borrowing is going to be sustainable and what the rate of return might eventually be on all this uh investment.
And the answer is nobody knows for sure. And so I think um we've got the AI jitters right now and that's sent a lot of money into the 10-year Treasury which explains why it's back down below 5%. Morning Ed. uh you know do you see a trend of further equity selling and you know going and that money flowing into fixed income bonds because now that seems to be the safe heaven for investors.
Well, you know the the market capitalization of technology is so large that if money is coming out of there, there's plenty to go around not just into the fixed income markets but into the rest of the stock market. As a matter of fact, um that's what we saw this uh this past day, a trading day in the United States.
We saw that the technology stocks were down, led by the AI plays. Semiconductors were down, but healthcare was up, financials were up, utilities were up. So, there's a lot of money that u has to basically stay in the stock market. The only question is whether they uh are aggressive in what they're investing or they're defensive.
And today was a riskoff day and we saw a lot of the defensive sectors doing really quite well. Uh I I I think this is starting to uh play play out in such a way that uh it's it's not going to continue. Uh I I think that we've seen enough of a selloff that [snorts] there will probably be some buyers.
But before all that happens, before we see any dip buying, I think we really have to get past the midter midterms in a few days and then uh we have to see what happens in the Middle East following that. On that, Ed, how are you positioning yourself? Well, I've been recommending that you stay fully invested in this market.
I think it's a bull market. I think it's been a bull market actually for quite a long time. It's essentially been a bull market since 2009. We haven't had a recession uh since then. Uh we did have a bare market in 2022. Uh but we did not have a recession and it turned out to be a great buying opportunity.
Uh so whether you time it from 20, you know, 2009 or from 2022, the gains have been significant. It's been very much an earningsled bull market which is more sustainable than a PE or valuationled bull market. I think over the past week or so we've sort of eliminated the uh analogy between what's happening now and what happened in 1999 and 2000 pees valuation multiples have actually gone down this time.
Nobody's chasing this market up with valuation multiples again. And it's been an earningsled market which is a solid market. Ed, uh how do you look at inflation here? Because what we are seeing is uh uh crude is inching higher and that uh is creating an inflation fear which is impacting gold as well.
uh but uh in US how do you see uh the impact of inflation as we go into an FOMC meet with the street already penciling in that there may not be a hike this time maybe in December but how do you look at the inflation well I look on the interest rate uh front uh as I said uh as as you pointed out the bond deal is back below 5% the Federal Reserve will meet next week and I think uh the markets uh do not expect to see a rate hike.
And I think that's plausible because again that's just going to be a few days before the midterms and I think the Fed would prefer not to uh do anything uh before the the midterms. It would be just too political. Uh certainly the president of the United States could very well scream about the Fed raising interest rates in front of the midterms.
So I I think they would probably prefer to come up with some excuse to postpone and maybe their excuse is they tightened in September. They want to see how it plays out. There's some uncertainties uh in the financial markets that they want to see settle down and I think they'll still go ahead and raise in December by 25 basis points and at the beginning of uh next year by 25 basis points.
I think basically they they have to uh take back what they gave us in 2025 when they cut rates by altogether 75 basis points. I think they're going to reverse that by early next year. Okay. Uh Ed, uh you know, I get exactly where you're coming from, but crude is determining everything at this point of time, right?
And it'll likely determine uh where inflation goes as well. What's the call on crude? I mean, we were speaking to a couple of experts and divergent views coming. Uh, just give us your sense. I don't think anybody really knows. Uh, you know, obviously uh geopolitical crisis uh tend to be hard to predict.
Wars there's the phrase the the fog of war. You know, sometimes war started as as we saw Russia invade Ukraine, as we saw the US bomb Iran and the the side that started it anticipated that it would be a quick war and then it turns out to be a long war and that's a situation I think that the United States is facing now with Iran.
it's not going to be that easy uh to get any uh surrender from the revolutionary guards in in in Iran. Uh but on the other hand, the military uh reescalation is likely to to happen u after the midterms and that plus the blockade of Iran may pretty much neutralize that that country's ability to disrupt the flow of oil coming out of the street of Harmuz as it is.
The Wall Street Journal just reported today that uh more oil is coming out of the that that region of the world than came out before the uh the war started. So I think what we're seeing in the war in the price of oil is a war premium is a uh uncertainty premium about what kind of damage Iran can still do uh to its neighbors who produce oil.
Um, but I think the the next round of escalation will kind of determine whether there's any real significant uh military risk coming out of Iran with regards to disrupting oil oil supply. Stop. Ed, I'm trying to understand so the risk of trade uh uh you know likely playing out to a certain extent. Can that continue and if so, how much?
because and and I wonder if the view is that India is part of that risk of trade because currently that seems to be the case. Look, I I think the US economy has withtood one stress test after the after another since the beginning of the decade starting with the pandemic and then we had inflation and the Fed raised rates.
We had a financial crisis didn't last very long, tariffs, and now the war and another round of inflation. And yet the US economy continues to be remarkably resilient. Consumer spending uh is uh a good reason why that's happening and capital spending has been very strong. It's possible that uh this latest AI development uh will lead to some slowing in capital spending.
I don't really expect to see much slowing. Uh but the bottom line of it all is that um as long as the US economy is continuing to pass these stress tests, uh I think the stock market's earnings outlook remains positive and that's what's driving the stock market higher. I mean just basically it felt like a riskoff day for sure.
Uh but as I said there was a lot of rotation back into other sectors that have underperformed. Actually, one of the most expensive um sectors in the market right now is consumer staples. We had a huge day for Proctor and Gamble. It was it was up dramatically. A lot of a lot of money wants to stay in the market but decided to go into hiding in consumer staples.
On the other hand, information technologies gotten cheaper and cheaper. Uh and I think you're going to find some uh significant buying once we get past the midterms and once we have some better sense of what's kind of escalation going to occur in the Middle East. Okay. Uh Ed, wonderful chatting with you.
Thank you so much for coming in, giving us your perspective and have a great evening. I
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