"AI Fatigue" Hits Wall Street? Ed Yardeni Explains The Great Market Rotation | Business News

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연준(워시 신임 의장)은 매파적이나 유가 하락으로 인플레가 완화 중이며, 향후 6~12개월 내 긴축이 있더라도 경제·증시에 큰 악영향은 없을 것으로 봄. 중동 전쟁 종료와 실적이 현재 시장의 핵심 변수. 반도체·기술주는 'AI 피로'로 조정 중이며 시장이 AI 수혜 기업으로 확산(broadening)되는 흐름. 다우 신고가 vs 나스닥·S&P500 횡보. 미국 10년물 4.5%는 정상 수준이며 채권시장이 금리 방향을 적절히 반영 중. 최근 고용지표는 이상하지만 노동시장은 균형 상태라 연준은 고용보다 인플레 2% 달성을 우선해야 함.

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01. But let's welcome on board Ed Yardeni and ask him about what he's making of the global markets and the setup right now. Ed, hi, great to have you on the show. Ed, does it seem like the markets have already begun pricing in now, the US equities that is, that it's going to be a status quo for from Fed for a longer time to come?

02. Well, I think that the Fed certainly at it as as a result of the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the recent comments by the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, they they came across as very hawkish indicating that that they need to get the inflation rate down to 2% and that that's a priority.

03. However, inflation is coming down thanks to the drop in oil prices and other factors may also contribute to that. So, it may very well be that what the market is factoring in is some tightening over the next 6 to 12 months but later rather than sooner and not enough to really have any bad impact on the US or global economy.

04. So, I I think the Fed is not not a very relevant factor right now for the market. I think what is is earnings and of course the fact that the war in the Middle East seems to be over. Hi, morning Ed. Uh Do you think the the kind of corrections that we are seeing in some of the semis and the tech pack that will continue for some time as as funds get rotated from the semis to other sectors?

05. Well, I think what we're saying here is what I call AI fatigue. People are just getting really tired of the AI trade. There's just it's just it's making everybody's head spin cuz there's so many issues that are being raised about where this is all going. I I think by now everybody recognizes that that AI is the real deal, that it's a technology that's here to stay, that it could be as important, if not more important, than than the internet.

06. But as we saw with the internet and previous revolutions in our economy, uh not everybody wins. Uh there's always casualties. And just when you thought one company is the winner, it becomes the loser. Uh so I I what I see is a broadening in the market. I think there's a recognition that a lot of companies are going to benefit from AI, but they're not necessarily the ones that are going to be providing uh AI goods and services.

07. And so I see that that Dow Jones the Dow Jones is continues to make new record highs, while the Nasdaq is and the S&P 500 have sputtered here. They've kind of gone sideways. Mhm. Uh uh Ed, uh what do you think that this could do this this high of a longer kind of rate cycle? Uh could it uh in some way pressure investments in AI?

08. Well, you know, uh I think the market uh has already adjusted to higher for longer uh interest rates. Uh and I I really don't know that there's anything abnormal about that. I think, you know, a a 10-year bond yield in the US of about 4 and 1/2%. That's where it should be. That's that's normal. That's where it was before the period between the great financial crisis and the great virus crisis.

09. Uh so I I think we need a a free bond market, a bond market uh that uh properly allocates capital. And I think we're we're there. And I I'm not sure that the Fed really needs to do do all that much. As a matter of fact, with the way way I read Kevin Warsh, is he basically is saying that he wants the Fed to provide less guidance to the market and get more guidance from the market.

10. And I think what he's really talking about is listening to the bond market. And the bond market right now is saying that the economy is in good shape, inflation will probably moderate, and there's really no reason for the Fed to do much of anything. Mhm. Ed, if you look at the inflation numbers or or the jobs data which is coming in, do you think that you know, it's in the numbers are good enough for the Fed if at all to raise rate by the end of the year?

11. Well, I have to tell you we had just one of the strangest employment reports I can recall. There a lot of people kind of scratched their heads and kind of wondered what that was all about. It seems like a lot of anomalies, things just didn't make much sense. Um and so I think everybody's going to want to look at the at the next number.

12. But when you look at all the labor market indicators we have, uh they show that the labor market's in balance, the supply is more or less equal to demand. Uh we're not seeing any real price uh spiral at all. Uh and so I think from the Fed's perspective, uh focusing getting the inflation rate down to 2% uh should be more important than helping the labor market which which right now doesn't really look like it needs much help.

13. Mhm. Uh Ed, it was a pleasure talking to you today. Thank you very much for joining today. Thank you.