저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
글로벌 채권시장은 일본 금리 상승과 엔캐리 청산으로 동조적으로 금리가 오르고 있으며, 프랑스는 2010년 그리스 같은 부채위기 가능성이 있다. 미국은 강한 성장(소비·AI 자본지출·재정적자)으로 중립금리가 높아진 것이 금리 상승의 주된 이유이며 아직 위험 수준은 아니다. AI 수요는 강해서 나스닥100 보유가 AI 투자로 합리적이라고 본다. 금은 금리 상승에도 중앙은행(특히 중국) 매입이 지지하며, 금리 상승이 멈추면 다시 중앙은행 매입이 초점이 될 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
I get to the nifty, let me go across...
Wait, I should output in Korean since the transcript is English? Let me reconsider: the instructions were written in Korean for a Korean YouTube channel, and the transcript is English. The system says "영어 자막은 영어로 다듬는다(번역하지 마라)." So output in English, cleaned up.
Let me go across. We're joined by Ed Yardeni. He's president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research. Ed, great having you. Let me first start by understanding your view on bonds and what's happening in the bond markets, especially in the US, and how that is not really impacting equity markets in the US and elsewhere. What's your view there?
Well, we have a perfect storm in the global bond market. When you look at things on a global basis, we've seen Japanese bond yields increase significantly, because they were so extraordinarily low, and the Bank of Japan has been raising short-term rates. That was a very important source of very cheap borrowing money, which was used to buy government securities around the world. As that yen carry trade unwinds, it's put upward pressure on yields around the world. I think that explains why we've seen a synchronized increase in bond yields.
Now, there are extremes in Europe. We've got the French situation, which increasingly is reminiscent of what happened in Greece in 2010 with its debt crisis. It certainly looks as though France has the potential, and may already be, in a debt crisis.
Here in the United States, I think a good part of why bond yields have risen is simply that the economy has been so strong. It's been strong because the consumer has continued to spend, capital spending has been very strong because of AI, and of course we have a huge government deficit. All those things have stimulated strong economic growth. I think we're seeing the bond market reprice to reflect the fact that the neutral interest rate, at which the economy can grow without generating a lot of inflation on a long-term basis, may be higher. So it's a wild situation around the world right now, for sure.
How do you look at the current situation with respect to the AI spend, which has been talked about a lot? On one hand you have the rising yields, and on the other you have spending going up. Do you see a point at which there will be a balance, and the markets will start factoring in the cost of that?
Well, I think there is definitely a fiscal crisis around the world. Deficits, in theory, are very easy to fix. All we have to do is increase revenues and cut expenses. The problem is that in many countries the political will to do that just isn't there. Liberals in various countries don't want to cut spending, and conservatives don't want to increase revenues. That's the problem we're having.
Around the world, interest rates have gone up, which makes the situation worse, because the cost of financing all that debt is really troublesome. There is a potential for the debt crisis we see in France to show up in other countries as well. But again, in the United States, I'm not convinced we're getting too close to that dangerous situation. For now, I think it's simply better-than-expected economic growth.
So, Ed, I'm trying to understand: do you believe we're in an AI bubble, to a large extent, with the Nasdaq hitting record highs? How should one reconcile that?
I don't know about you, but I have AI fatigue. I think we all have some AI fatigue. It can certainly make your head spin, because every day we get different news that points to different conclusions. Some people are very concerned that it's going to be very dangerous. Others are concerned that it's a bubble.
I think the way to calm down about it is to realize that AI is the real deal. It's here to stay, and it's all about processing as much data as possible, as fast as we can, as cheaply as we can. We're doing that, and there's never going to be a shortage of data. So the end demand for AI compute is going to remain strong. I don't see anything that's going to suddenly slam the brakes on it.
Of course, how we develop AI is very complicated. Financing is very complicated. The relationships between these companies are very complicated. My conclusion is that investors have decided they're just going to buy the Nasdaq 100 and assume that the winners are going to do a lot better than the losers. I think that's not a bad idea. Owning the Nasdaq 100 as the AI play makes the most sense.
Ed, I wonder what you make of gold and silver at this point, given the rally in bonds. If there's a concern in that end of the asset class, is it likely to benefit gold and silver?
Look, the problem for gold right now is that interest rates are going up. That's a little peculiar, because if the buyers of gold were concerned about the cost of storing gold, or the interest cost of owning it, then yes, I could see why gold would be hard hit. But the story for gold has really been central bank buying, particularly Chinese central bank buying, and they're not sensitive to interest rates. These central banks can buy gold, store it, and absorb the cost of financing it. Their main reason, of course, is that they have a target of de-dollarization. They want to be less dependent on the dollar, and as a result they've been buying gold.
So I don't know that this situation, where gold prices go down as interest rates go up, is going to last much longer. I think it will last until bond yields stop going up. When that happens, I think the focus will be back on central bank buying.
All right, Ed, wonderful talking to you, as always. It's really good having you here, and thank you for giving us that perspective.
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