저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장 소음과 변동성 속에서도 장기적으로는 부의 기회가 있으며, 유망 테마(RISE)를 찾는 인내심 있는 투자가 핵심이라는 메시지. 시장 환경 및 투자 자세: 시장은 인플레이션·유가·달러·전쟁 등 다양한 변수로 흔들리며, 단기적 조정 속에서 신중해야 한다. 과거 상승 종목이 다음 상승장에서도 오른다는 보장은 없어 테마 순환을 고려해야 한다. RISE 테마: R(재생에너지·에너지 전환), I(인프라·물류), S(보안·사이버보안·방산 일부), E(신기술: AI, 데이터센터, EV, 결제 게이트웨이 등). 향후 10년 유망 테마로 제시. 방산·보안: 대형 방산주는 이미 알려져 있고 가격 부담이 커 직접 투자하지 않음. 사이버보안 신규 상장사 4곳에 투자했다고 언급. 저비용 고효과 드론 등 소형·중형 방산주 관심. 인프라: 라슨앤드투브로 제외한 다수 인프라 기업이 고점 대비 1/3~40~70% 할인되어 있다고 주장. 수주 소식이 늘고 실행 능력 있는 기업은 4~5곳에 불과하다고 평가. 중국 및 해외: 과거 중국 관련 ETF(홍콩 주식 ETF)에 투자해 1.5~2년간 약 50% 수익을 얻었으나 최근 전량 매도, 다시 인도 시장에 집중. 태양광: 태양광 기업 지분 일부 투자, 솔라 펌프·옥상 태양광 관련 비상장 기업에 최근 투자. 정부 정책(PM Kusum, PM Surya Ghar) 수혜 기대. 비상장 투자: 비상장 시장에서 지분(5~10%)을 확보하고 PE 5~6배 수준의 밸류에이션으로 투자하는 것을 선호. 아이디어 단계가 아닌 3~4년 실적이 있는 성장 자본 단계 기업에 투자. 시장 교훈: 강세장보다 약세장이 가장 큰 스승이며, 소음 속에서도 자리를 지키는 것이 중요. 지수보다 개별 종목·섹터에 집중. CAGR 계산보다 10년 장기 관점이 중요하며, 소형주가 중형주로 성장할지 여부를 기준으로 판단. 리스크: 정부 의존 사업은 정책 변화에 취약. 기술 변화가 빨라 테마가 쉽게 무너질 수 있음. 비상장 투자는 유동성이 낮아 출구 전략이 불확실. 단기 시장 바닥은 예측하지 않는다고 명시. 출연자 전망: 현재 시장은 바닥 확인이 어렵고 인내심 테스트가 계속된다고 봄. 장기적으로 기회가 있다는 낙관적 입장.
다듬은 글
What is happening in the market any given time. So I can recite a few lines of that. So it is like this, sometimes DI, sometimes FI inflation, sometimes oil, sometimes dollar, sometimes rain, this is the game of all these. By singing victory. Hey, where are you singing? So I sing the last four lines.
Let me complete this first. So sometimes DI, sometimes FI inflation, sometimes oil, sometimes dollar, sometimes rain, this is a game of all these. There are many names of problems here. Be a little different and be careful in the short term, my love. O heart, it is difficult to earn here. If you move a little away and be careful in the short term, my love.
And his second stanza is this. Sometimes macro, sometimes micro, sometimes slow down, sometimes scale, sometimes US, sometimes China, sometimes fight, sometimes match. There are many names of tension here. Be a little different, be careful in trading, my love, and the last one is this, sometimes tension, sometimes fear, sometimes crisis, I cannot bear the tune of this, so choose mutual fund, there are many names for investment here, be a little different, be careful in short term, my love, my heart, simple earning is here, if long term is just long term, only long term is my love.
Okay, we will get you to add the musical notes later but since you did talk about the conviction and mutual funds that this noise, rain, fight and trouble will all continue. What should retail investors be doing right now ? Investors? What should they do right now in this market? With so much noise and volatility, what is the future for investors?
No see this is what is every bull killed every you the market every euphoria market turns into a crisis this is what this is what data suggest this is what we have seen in the market if you see the 50 years history you know so every crisis will turn into an opportunity and this is what happened between 202 and 2024 people made a lot of money not in percentage less but they multiplied their money.
So now this is the side effect of what is called the side effect of love. So this is the side effect of love brother. So this brother okay it's going on for last two years on. But I think like everybody is also saying that the table is going to turn you know things are going to change. But one thing I feel is that investors should keep it in mind that whichever stocks are performed in the past may not perform in the future.
Whichever shares have multiplied in the last bull market may not be participating in the next bull market. So, it is a rotation theme. So Ah Ro Ah theme is concern it is only a rotational basis. So, now you have to do ah you know your homework and whatever is given you money is not necessary that is going to give you money.
So, you have to be a have money. You have to be careful in this market. But ultimately I think people will make a big money. If you can sense what is the emerging theme in this market then you will make big money. So where are you sensing the next emerging theme? Considering even Rhythm Desai just said that if you want to make money then ask Vijay Kedia where to invest in stocks?
No, he did not want to answer them, so he put it on me. So that is a different matter. So to me I think the next theme for the next 10 years theme I've given acronym to it. It is like rice. You Know. So this Rise theme is going to make money for investors and in this Rise I will tell you that R stands for renewable.
So renewable and energy transition because I feel like oxygen is important to the body. Same way energy is important to a nation. You Know Energy Runs the Nation. Like oxygen runs real. So I think this is a new theme may be because of our AI and data center whatever so many people have spoken about that.
So I think this R stands for renewable energy renewable and energy transactions they should do well and I stands for infrastructure and logistics. So this is I think this is again a sunrise theme and S is for security. It could be a defence and it could be a cyber security because defence security also requires cyber security.
So that is going to be a play out that is going to become a very big theme you know and you know what I feel that now a days things have become so much depending on data ignition depending so much on data that you don't have to even if you attack like suppose I had said somewhere else like if I suppose attack your data center through cybersecurity breach of cybersecurity your entire system will become you know stand standard so this is what s stands for security and cybersecurity and east stands for emerging technology.
So whether it is either EAI or data center or EV or payment gateway or what so ever. So this emerging technology. So if I think this is what I'm focusing upon. If investors focus on this theme, they should make money in the next 10 years. You mentioned renewables, infra security and emerging technologies.
If we look at securities, there has been a huge jump in stocks in defense. Many emerging technologies are coming there too. So what do you see? Who is looking at what kind of technologies ? And which companies in India are doing this? So in this, everything about defence is everybody knows about defence.
It's old exclusive pack ho gaya woh. Yes. Or and p wise also it's very expensive discount wise. So, I'm not, I'm not investing into that kind of security. But I have invested in few cyber security companies. So, those are newly listed in the market, you know, so I am invested in all of them. Whatever there are four companies listed, I have invested.
But there is a caveat, one should remember that things are changing technology is changing so fast. You Know, You Never Know Whatever We Feel That Today Is The 100% Guarantee, There Is Nothing Called Guaranteed In This Month, or. So, today we feel that it could be it could make money for us. May be tomorrow technology changes.
So that is why you have to be on your toes every given time. So this is what I mean or there has been a warfare change in securities also. You see you know we used to have big missiles high cost missiles. Now it is a drone system, you know low cost high impact security cyber security, you mentioned that from the web point of view but from the low cost high impact, there you are seeing opportunities in some small and mid cap companies which are working really well on that space, in this I would like to tell one thing that most of the shares in this, as you name them, like in cyber security also, all these shares which are in the unlisted category, will come listed in the market someday or the other.
Yes, he will come. So either you invest in unlisted companies and you wait for them to get listed. So the same thing is happening inside the defense. So much work is being done in startups. Now, like you talked about Brahmos, some missile, some Visail, that too, some Bor or some startup from Chennai is involved in it.
So this technology is changing so rapidly inside it. So this new space of startups is going to play a vital role. So inside it, but the common investor does not have access there. Because they don't understand which is which is worth investing and which is not worth investing. Because out of those 10 companies, one will be successful and the other companies will fail.
So this is a bit tricky. So in other words, it is better that if you find a listed company which has a track record and if the market ever falls, then you should invest in it at a low PE. Which is the safer route? And in infra, there are so many companies, so many infra companies, all of them are available at one-third the price from the top.
Whatever 5-10 names you take, leave out Larsen, but apart from Larsen, all the other companies at the bottom are available at one-third and a half, 40, 60, 70% discount and you should look at all of them, every week you will find, you will see on your TV channel that this company got an order of 2000 crores, this one got an order of 500 crores, this one got an order of 700 crores, so these companies are getting their order books built and right now there are very few executors, earlier in infra, understand that there would be 100-10 companies that execute, right now there are only four-five companies that execute well, so by saying this, this entire transformation will happen and without infrastructure, nothing is going to happen in India because still we are far behind, so the shares of those which are listed in it are cheap, one should think about that, so Vijay One is the rise theme but you are an investor I remember three and four years back you were the first one who said that I am buying China.
Right? You are the first one in the marsh loz who said that buy the market now. You know, you've been very ahead of the herd and you've taken those contra bottom-up bets. What Is That Large Sizable Bet That You Can Spot In This Market Right Now. And globally, let me not just you know stick it to India.
So, in Ahead of the Curve, it's like when the line turns, you're left behind. So that is temporary that is ahead of the cup and so far Chinese is a concern yes I had bought some ETF that Hong Kong stock ETF was it is listed here in NSE and all and I had bought that last week I exited because I found may be that ah Chinese economy may do well but may be Chinese stocks also I got 50% ah return in one and half or may be two years time.
So that is okay. So but I I have ah sold all my Chinese ETFs and all. Now again I am focusing on the Indian market. So this is one ah change and meaningful stake I don't know I bot some stake in one a solar company so integrated solar plant they I took some percentage into that that company. So I'm bullish on Solar Age I.
Right. For the seasoned investor and perhaps that is also a reason why the market was flat because there was so much money last year at least which was going into private equity and which was going a lot into IPOs as well. Till of course you know the March fall happened. With in the private equity space because you are a large investor there.
Where do you find these big sizeable opportunities right now? So I am focusing on deep tech companies like again of course again cyber security company and plus related to power whatever the rise theme actually I just now I said I am focusing on that rise theme and mainly into like last week only I invested in one company which is into solar pumps and all you know rooftop solar and solar pumps and load which is like it is ah means PM also has PM Kusum Yojana, PM Surya Ghar and all those things that all the government's focus is.
So, my focus is where the government's focus is. Simple is one thing. There are pluses as well as minuses in it because ultimately they are dependent on the government. So, people don't like to be dependent on all these infrastructure stocks as you said, they couldn't do well in the last two three years because of the because they were fully dependent on government ah ah money.
And the government was busy distributing free seeds and all. So like free electricity free, these schemes, sister scheme, brother scheme, niece scheme, all these actually could not get money from the government, that is why they suffered, but in this the government has given priority that they have a target that yes brother solar pumps and this has to be installed as a priority.
So I have invested in which is at unlisted space. So this is what the latest I did. If we look at the last 2 years, Vijay Retail Investor has not got that much return. But as you say, one should invest for the long term. So how much patience will retail investors have to have there ? No brother, the stock market is a game of patience here.
So here three things are very important. Knowledge, courage and patience. And patience is not in your hands as long as it is there, there is a song of mine that hey this is the bottom, I don't know anything about this bottom, we don't understand Vijay songs like this, I mean you have to put a music note to it, no one could understand, no one will be able to, as long as it keeps on taking, it will make a new low, it will fall and get sold, that is the bottom, this is the bottom, it is not of this bottom, I don't know anything about it, this is an illusion, so the testing of patience here, the testing of your patience is going to happen here, so until you don't give up, the market will keep falling, it will test your patience.
The day you said, hey brother, I can't see it anymore, that's where the bottom is formed. This is what history tells here. Do you think the bottom has been reached? No, it is difficult to say and I never look at the bottom of the index. I want to tell you one thing. I never target the bottom of the index.
The bottom of the index plays its own trick. One thing you should understand is that such a huge historical rise took place between 2003 and 2007. Then came the market crash in 2008. But since the market crash of 2008, the index has not shown any new highs between 2008 and 2014. The index kept moving here.
But there are many stocks which became multi-multibaggers between 2008 and 14. My three shares increased 10 times, 20 times, 100 times. There were 100 times from 2008 to 2016-17. So I understood that I should not invest by looking at the index. The index is a comforting factor for you that yes brother, if the index is high then the market is good, the economy is good.
What he just told me was that in the sales of May, the sales of vehicles were at an all-time high. Its sales are at an all-time high. Its sales are at an all-time high. So he tells himself. The index does not give you the complete picture of the market. So I do n't focus on the index. I have a bottom approach.
I focus on individual stocks and individual sectors. And I keep this in mind that even if this index remains stagnant, the market does not crash, even if the market sentiment is good, even if it is sideways, then it will probably give good returns. So Vijay, you said that you have just exited your positions in the Hashing ETF.
Or where is it that you increased allocation from in the last six months. So as I said again that rise that I am I have both I think three two companies in to solar space and one company that is into pump and roof top solar so that it is also again solar so I have increased I have increased my you know investment in this or and plus I have both one infra company some shares in infra companies also I have now and plus I am looking for unlisted space now I am very active in unlisted space why is it so that you see higher valuation in listed space or do you see more opportunities and returns in unlisted space going forward?
No, what happens in that is that in the unlisted space, firstly you get quantity, the rest of the mid cap is completely illiquid, it is in your hands to enter or exit as per your wish, otherwise it is in God's hands whether you will exit less or in the listed unlisted space, there is even more money there, the money can be zero or it can multiply, but there, firstly I get quantity, I get 5%, 10% shares in the company and in terms of valuation, I invest in such companies which I get at a PE of five or six.
Who comes and tells me the narrative that Sir, I have come from IM. I come from IIT and Nvidia has such a huge market cap. It has such a huge market cap. Who compares himself to him. I don't even meet him. I say there is no benefit in wasting time brother. Where do I have to meet the Nvidia guy? Nvidia One is not going to let itself go.
So, in this regard, I am absolutely sure that if I get a good valuation then I will invest in it. Otherwise just greet from a distance. Do you meet a lot of companies and new entrepreneurs who are first time entrepreneurs and have ideas but they do n't have funding because as you said, those who come to you from IM and IIT also ask for high valuations.
But you natural or ground entrepreneurs know the business and also know how to bring returns. I know the business and also know how to bring in returns. So do you invest more in those companies or do you prefer those as opposed to Harvard MBA, the ground up ones, you know story, you prefer those as opposed to the IITs and those which I don't entertain of course, education is necessary in that, there is no such thing in that, I have not said anything about IIT-IM, but it is not that every person becomes a big entrepreneur after coming out of IIT, you will have to choose in that also, ultimately you will have to extract diamond from the coal mines only.
So everyone comes here and says that is not the only criteria that you have come from IIT and that does not mean that I am going to give you money. What is your vision and how much pain can you bear? That is different. Because whatever idea you take in a startup, I do not invest in it at the very idea stage.
When that company has already made its mark for three-four years. I have seen ups and downs. It has been saved from spreading two-three times. He has learnt it. Suppose I invest in it for three, four, five years. I do n't invest at the idea stage. The company has an approval track record. The order is already in hand.
There is already revenue. Already in profit. But he needs growth capital. He does n't just want money for his idea. So I invest at such stages and in such companies. I do n't invest in empty narratives or empty stories. So Vijay, it's Etina's 17th birthday next week. In the last 17 years that you have tracked markets.
What has been your biggest learning? The biggest learning in the stock market is that bull market and bear market keep coming and going. So in this, only the one who stands on the pitch earns money. I have said this to you many times and at many places that the person standing on the pitch will earn money.
If you get out and go to the pavilion and later a no ball comes, then the person who comes to bat after you will hit a six on it. Your career is over. That means your innings is over. So here is when you feel that the pitch is not good. When you feel that the ball is coming very ah ah bad, you are not able to play.
You keep playing defensive on him quietly. Do n't give up on your pitch. The stock market also shows us the same thing. When there is a problem, when there is war, when there is inflation, when it is crude now , this is it. You stand quietly. Like the heron, when the fish comes, I kill it and take it.
Otherwise I would have remained sitting quietly like Bagola Bhagat inside the pond without making any movement. So this is what I understood here and the bear market which stands there is the biggest teacher of the stock market. The biggest teacher is not the bull market. When we are right we earn, when we are wrong we learn.
In the bear market, everyone came to know how much strength you have or how intelligent you are. whatever I I whatever comes to mind, I did it. I increased it. This increased in me. So I say the same thing to everyone. You don't do anything in the stock market. It happens to you. If you stay on the pitch, all kinds of balls come, so if you hit them, you get the money.
Now we have been earning some money every year for so many years. I never see these CAGR VGR. 15 taka CAGR 25 taka CAGR I don't understand this. Such shares of mine did not last for 3-4 years and when they did, they became 10 times better within 2 years. So my CAGR automatically improved for me. So I feel like this is working for me.
So all this, like looking at CAGR, doing this, doing that, should not be done here. We should have a long term vision as to whether this change will happen in 10 years or not. Will this micro cap or micro cap become mid cap in 10 years or not? If a company worth Rs 500 crore becomes Rs 5000 crore or Rs 5000 crore in 10 years and you buy 1%, half or any share in it, whatever share you have, then your money can become 10, 20, 25 times like this.
So one should wait for the right moment. One should wait for the right script. One should not try to hit every ball. Vijay, we have reached the end of our discussion but before leaving, let us share a new poem of yours. Hey brother, there is no poem on me. Then the film people will pick me up and take me away.
Then what to do? Thank you, thank you, thank you. Thank you. That's not such a bad thing, though. No, nothing comes to my mind right now, friend. Okay, so that song for investors bar with lyrics, no one understood you, why do you keep growing and fall, why do these 90% people lose money, those who thought well understood this, those who took and sat down are the ones who earned, open your eyes brother, think a little brother, nine out of 10 people lose money in trading, it seems simple but it is a maze, no one could escape, BA, CA or M brother, 100% S, they say in emoji language, but Vijay K, thank you so much for your time, today always a pleasure, thank you, thank you a
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