저자: 미상 · 외국인
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워런 버핏 버크셔가 10분기 연속 순매도하며 현금이 주식 보유액보다 많아졌다고 설명. 시티그룹, 뉴홀딩스, 스노플레이크, Floor&Decor, HP, 쉐브론, T-Mobile, 뱅크오브아메리카, 애플 등 매도 사례를 소개. 버핏 은퇴 및 그레그 에이블 체제 전환, 사상 최대 현금 보유를 언급. 시장은 쉴러 PE 38, 버핏지표 200%로 고평가라는 거시 근거 제시. 영상 후반 포캐스터 광고 포함.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett has just done something he has never done before in his entire history of investing. He has been a net seller of stocks for 10 consecutive quarters, which now leaves him owning more cash than he owns in stocks. Let's look at 10 of the stocks he sold and at the end go over why isn't Warren Buffett all about buying stocks?
Why is he selling now? Yeah, so stock 10, as you can see, starting Q4 2024, he started selling Cityroup. And as per the most recent quarter, he finished the job and fully sold out of the stock. Interestingly, the stock has done very well this past year and Buffett sold around this price here. So, he made a profit and he's cashed that in now.
Soon, we'll get a better feel for why he's cashed in so many different stocks. Another stock that Buffett has sold is New Holdings. He didn't muck around. He sold all 14 million of his shares. The interesting thing about new is it's a stock that most investors would not dare selling. They have become the largest digital bank in the world by custom counts.
They expanded operations into Mexico and Colombia. They have grown their revenue from 300 million in 2018 to 11 billion today. And profit it was negative 28 million grown to a positive 2 billion. But Buffett despite this fully sold out the company. These two stocks I never thought Buffett would own in the first place.
and then now he's gone and sold them. The two stocks are ETFs in the S&P 500 and he 100% got rid of them recently. Now, I actually don't think it was Buffett who sold them or bought them in the first place. It must have been someone else within the company because Buffett is not a passive investor. He's an active investor.
And this speaks to a broader point which is that Berkshire Hathaway is changing. As we all know this year Buffett announced that he is stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway and Greg Ael will be taking over. This means that more and more large decisions will be made by other people and not Warren Buffett.
This will change Berkshire fundamentally where analysts are saying that the new CEO Greg Ael will be more hands-on, more focused on making deals and maybe even start paying a dividend, which just to put that into perspective, Bergkshire has only ever once paid a dividend in its history way back in 1967 for 10 cents a share.
We'll have to wait and see just how Berkshire changes with Buffett stepping aside, but at least for now, he is still making most of the stock moves. So, let's see what else he sold. Snowflake is a very interesting company. Again, it's a stock that you would never really associate with Bergkshire. It's more of a Arc Invest type stock.
Snowflake is a cloud-based platform that uses AI to process and model data. So, if you're a company, you can store, you can analyze, and you can share large volumes of your data. It's pretty important in the modern day. If you just looked at the stock's price, you would think, what has happened? If we go to forecaster and we look up Snowflake stock, we can see that it had a big crash post 2021.
Went from a price of $400 to a price of $110. And only as of right now, they've just recovered to the price that they IPOed at. But if you click on sales, which tells you how much revenue they made, it's done the opposite of price. It's gone from 592 million to 3.8 billion. But I'll tell you why the stock has gone nowhere, and that's because of net income.
They're losing a lot of money each year and every year it's only gotten worse. You got to remember this is quite natural for a newish company. If they can turn this profit figure around, the stock will shoot up. Floor and Decor Waram sold 4 million shares in which amounted to all of Berkshire Hathaway's shares in the company and this was back in Q3 2024.
It's a stock that in the right market you could see Buffett wanting to own it. It's an old school business model which is quite easy to understand. brick and mortar store that sells flooring and flooring related accessories. Low price, high volume model like Costco, the stock that the great Charlie Manga used to love.
And they seem to quite consistently make decent revenue with a handsome margin attached if it were at a reasonable valuation. You could see Bergkshire buying into the stock. However, the stock is quite pricey right now with a PE ratio around 40. And I have a funny feeling this may be why Burkshire sold.
sell high, buy low type mentality. Okay, stock five of Buffett's sales was HP, Inc., the PC and printing company. And he sold this stock across multiple quarters until he fully sold out of the stock in 2024. A lot of fully sold out positions in 2024. Now, you don't have to be a genius to work out that this is a lot of selling.
It's unprecedented. Never been done before by Warren. 10 consecutive quarters of selling. If you know Buffett, it's not his style. He's made a lot of his money from buying stocks, not from selling them. The interesting thing is that the market has not like this one bit. Burkshire Hathaway is down 11% since May.
And a key reason is obviously because Buffett has decided to step down from Berkshire, but I'm sure the net selling of stocks investors don't love that. But always remember, Buffett is a long-term guy, and there is clearly a reason why he sold. Stock four that he's been selling a lot of, this is a very weighty position.
It's the oil company Chevron. He's been selling the stock consistently across six quarters, but if you actually look at his portfolio, he still holds it. He's just reduced it a lot. And normally you wouldn't consider Warren Buffett a trader, but he's executed this position in a way that any seasoned trader would be proud of.
If you go to forecaster, Buffett started buying Chevron at this time here around $80 a share. And then he purchased heavily from 2021 to Q1 2022 at a decent price and then he did most of his selling from Q4 2022 and in 2023. So he made a nice profit on the stock. So, yeah, just to let you know, the data that I'm using is from forecaster.biz.
You can click the link in the description if you want to use it, too. It's a very well-designed site, and they are the sponsor of today's video. Forecaster has so many cool features. Look at this. If we stay on our stock, Chevron, and we scroll down, they have an entire section dedicated to value investing.
This includes a discounted cash flow calculation to get the fair value of the stock. Discounted cash flow, of course, that's the method that Warren Buffett used to calculate intrinsic value. In this case, the discounted cash flow model shows us that Chevron's intrinsic value is $681. But let's say you're more aligned to Peter Lynch's approach.
Well, forecaster have included this method, too. Peter Lynch's model looks at how fast the company's earnings have been growing if growth has slowed down or worse, gone flat or negative, then Lynch argues that the stock doesn't justify a high valuation even if the company is still profitable. So what we do is we go on forecaster and we just find the model that we are most aligned to and then you can go to any stock be it Apple, Invidia, Meta, Berkshire, Tesla and quickly get a strong feel for the intrinsic value of the company.
Also you can use a few different models and forecaster will put them together and give you the average fair value based on these models. This is just one of the many features that Forecaster has and you can use these by clicking the link in the description or seeing the pin comment for this video. Now, it is kind of surprising to see him selling so much of an oil company.
He's spoken quite well of the oil industry in the past, but just remember if you look at his current portfolio, he still owns a lot of oil. Chevron's his fifth largest stock position and Oxidental is his sixth. So, he's not out of the industry by any means at all. Okay, stock three of Buffett's sales is T-Mobile.
He started reducing his position in Q2 2024 and then he reduced it more in Q4 and even the latest quarter he sold 460,000 shares of the stock. I have noticed that Buffett he generally doesn't sell off all of his shares at once like someone like Michael Bury would. Buffett he tends to sell in batches.
All up he sold 1.3 million shares but he still has 1 million left in the portfolio. So he reduced the position by about half and I wouldn't be surprised if he kept selling over the next few quarters. T-Mobile, you guys know what the company does. They're the wireless communications company. They sell phones, offer internet services, charge people to access its network.
As a stock, they've actually done quite well. They're up 65% since last year. And the reason is because of this. Their net income, aka profit, is up from 2.5 billion to 12 billion. That's pretty dramatic. The thing is, the longer you're in stocks, the more you'll see that the market follows this pattern.
When net income goes up, the market loves you, and when it's down, it absolutely hates you. All of this selling has left him with a lot of cash on his books. Berkshire has $347 billion of cash on hand. As you can see, it's been these past 10 quarters where the cash pile has shot up with all of the selling.
Only a few years ago, they had 105 billion in cash. Now, it has tripled. Just to put that into perspective, no company in the history of the world has ever held this much cash. It is unprecedented in corporate finance. Microsoft has 80 billion, Google has 95 billion, Amazon has 95 billion, and Meta has 70 billion.
H they would have a lot more if Zuck didn't blow 40 billion on the metaverse. But hey, if you combine all of these figures of some of the most cash heavy companies in the world, they still don't add up to the amount of cash that Burkshire has. And it all comes down to these last few years of Buffett selling stocks and having nowhere to put the money apart from keeping it stored away in cash.
As we mentioned before, his cash position is actually bigger than his US stock position, which is extremely rare. I'm not sure that this has ever happened before. Now, many Berkshire investors think that he has this cash on hand so that he can go elephant hunting. Elephant hunting is a term that Buffer has used in the past, referring to a search for large acquisition targets that can meaningfully move the needle for Berkshire.
He famously said in his 2013 shareholder letter, "Charlie and I have dawned our safari outfits and resumed our search for elephants." This was when he had $80 billion in cash to work with. If investing with 80 billion is elephant hunting, then the 350 billion that he has now means Buffett is more like dinosaur hunting, which like dinosaurs, I'm not even sure if they exist.
A private company worth $300 billion that is willing to sell and is considered a decent deal, good luck finding that. Which may mean unless we see a massive stock crash, Buffett could have to do what he has always been against and simply issue a dividend to Berkshire investors. I know I said it. So, Bank of America and Apple, these are two of his biggest moves and probably most surprising to a lot of people.
You know, he's made a lot of money on both of these stocks in the past and to see him sell so much with such large positions tells you a lot about the market we are in. So, Bank of America, he sold for the last three quarters straight. In total, he sold 400 million shares. So, he's reduced it by 40% of the original position.
And Apple, he sold for four quarters in a row. He sold around 615 million shares, about 66% of the original amount. It's a lot. Granted, they still make up his largest and fourth largest stock positions. So, he still obviously believes in them and feels that they have a future in the modern world that we live in.
He's just scaled back. If you look back to 2023, these two positions alone made up more than half of his portfolio, 60%. But today his portfolio looks more diversified, a little bit more like a regular portfolio with Apple and Bank of America making up 35% and he still owns a lot of oil, a lot of banks, and of course the traditional Apple and Coca-Cola.
So that brings us to the big question as to why he sold. I'm not going to go over each individual stock and look at things from a micro level. Instead, we'll look at the big picture. The macro will show us what's going on. Warren Buffett is a deal hunter. He looks at the market very differently to someone like Kathy Wood or Tom Lee.
He wants to buy stocks when they are cheap or at least fair value. The latter will just buy if they like the company sometimes regardless if the price is high or low. Warren Buffett will outright refuse to buy and can even sell if valuations are lofty. We will never buy in our stock at a silly price.
We may make a mistake by not buying it at a cheap price, but we'll never make a mistake, I don't think, by buying it at a silly price. The market right now, well, let's look at it. The price toearnings ratio of the market S&P 500 is 28. Prices are 28 times higher than earnings. Historically, the average PE ratio is around 15 to 16.
So, currently it's almost double the historical average, two times more expensive. Well, you might say that this is an inaccurate metric because it includes earnings from the past 12 months, and 12 months can be very volatile and not give you a good picture. Well, this is the exact reason why they developed the Schiller PE ratio, which uses the average earnings over 10 years.
So, it smooths out the volatility and gets rid of short-term noise. The Schiller PE ratio is 38, which is higher than what it was before the housing crash in 2007 and getting dangerously close to the level it was before the dotcom crash in 2000. And then we look at the Buffett indicator, the one that Warren Buffett said is the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.
Well, that is sitting at 200%, well above the historical trend line, 57% higher, two standard deviations above the norm. This indicates that the market is overvalued relative to how much it produces. These three graphs will give you a very good idea of why Buffett, the king of value, is choosing to sell and instead stack cash in these market conditions.
Thank you Forecaster for sponsoring this video. But don't forget to go check out the link in the description or the pin comment if you want to get 10% off to use these great features that Forecaster has for us stock investors.
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