저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 금이 상승할 것이며 비트코인 버블은 결국 붕괴한다고 주장한다. 시장 낙관과 금 투자 심리: 주식시장이 오르고 투자자들이 낙관적이어서 헤지 목적의 금 매수 수요가 줄었다고 설명한다. 시장 밸류에이션은 역대 최고 수준이며 하락 우려는 거의 없다고 지적한다. 비트코인과 금의 관계: 비트코인이 올해 10배 이상 올랐고 디지털 금으로 여겨져 금 수요를 빼앗고 있다고 본다. 하지만 금이 본격적으로 오르면 비트코인 보유자들이 실물 금으로 갈아타려 해 비트코인 버블을 터뜨리는 핀이 될 수 있다고 주장한다. 두 자산은 음의 상관관계에 가깝다고 본다. 비트코인 가치 비판: 비트코인은 실물 가치가 없고 주고받거나 더 높은 가격에 팔 수 있는 투기 자산일 뿐이라고 평가한다. 공급이 유한하다는 점도 포크로 인해 의미가 없다고 본다. 비트코인 하락 전망: 비트코인과 암호화폐는 로켓처럼 올랐기 때문에 하락도 훨씬 빠르고 가파를 것이며 하루에 80~90%까지 떨어질 수 있다고 경고한다. 미리 빠져나오지 않은 투자자는 갇힐 것이라고 말한다. 금 가격 전망: 금 가격은 더 오를 것이며 시점과 폭은 정확히 알 수 없다고 말한다. 연준 정책과 미국 경제의 실상을 시장이 깨닫게 되면 달러 이탈과 금 매수 쟁탈전이 벌어질 것이라고 본다. 연기금과 펀드가 금 배분을 늘리면 2011년 고점 1900달러를 쉽게 돌파할 것이라고 주장한다. 리스크 및 조건: 금 상승 시점과 폭은 불확실하며 시장 참여자들이 현실을 인식하는 데 달려 있다.
다듬은 글
one point traders have dumped net bullish bets at the fastest pace in five months so what's behind this are people just bored of gold Peter well look you know the stock market is going up everybody is optimistic everybody wants to get in on the action so I think a lot of people who were buying gold as a hedge they think there's no reason to hedge I mean we've never seen so much optimism about the market the market has never been this expensive while at the same time so few people are worried that it might go down so to the extent that people buy gold those insurance investors think they no longer need insurance because this time it's different and that everything is gonna keep going up plus then you also have the sideshow with the crypto currencies Bitcoin you know look at the explosive move bitcoin is up over tenfold this year a lot of other crypto currencies are up even more than that so to the extent that people think that bitcoin is digital gold which it's not but to the extent that people think that and so that some money that might otherwise buy real gold is buying this fool's gold instead then that is taking away some of the demand for gold but you know I do think that once gold really starts to go up it could end up being the pin that pricks the Bitcoin bubble because I think when people who have been buying digital gold decide that they want the real thing because now the real thing is going up and they have a lot of paper profits in in in digital gold they're gonna try to make the switch and that's impossible I mean it's a it's possible for a small amount of money to get out of Bitcoin but there's no way a significant amount can get out without imploding the entire market you know there are people who think that maybe gold and Bitcoin moved together they don't they're more negatively correlated and so if you're in Bitcoin the last thing you want to see is a big move up in the price of gold because that could be the pin that pricks your bubble well I just want to dig a little deeper here I'm happy you brought this up because people just love pitying gold versus Bitcoin I know you've even taken part in debates debating exactly this so what's your greatest argument in gold's favor when people compare it to Bitcoin well I mean gold is a real element right is a tangible commodity that has unique properties that other commodities don't have that other metals don't have and so gold has been valued throughout human history and it was valued as a luxury good as a valuable metal long before money was invented but once people came up with the idea of money gold was the perfect commodity to use as money but bitcoin was invented less than a decade ago and in prior to its introduction as a cryptocurrency it had no value whatsoever I mean nobody used bitcoins for anything and in fact nobody can use them for anything today they don't have a real world value the only thing that you can do with a Bitcoin is give it to somebody else or sell it to somebody else who thinks the price is gonna rise right so that is the value it's not a store of value like gold is because Bitcoin has no inherent value to store it's a speculative asset that people are hoarding because other people are buying it but the idea that it's scarce the way gold is scarce is nonsense yes there is a finite number of bitcoins but there is an infinite number of digital currencies that can be created that are as good as Bitcoin or in many cases better many of the crypto currencies that have come out since Bitcoin are faster and cheaper to use than Bitcoin itself and Bitcoin is already fork twice you have Bitcoin cash and you have Bitcoin gold so there you have tripled the supply of Bitcoin branded digital currencies there is an unlimited number of Forks that you can take so they can be spinning off all sorts of bitcoins into the future there is no limit to the number of other crypto currencies that can be created so that you know that you can saturate the world with supply see right now the demand for cryptocurrency seems to be growing faster than the supply because so many of the people that own them or hoarding them but at some point that people who are hoarding them are going to want to cash out the supply is going to continue to grow and eventually overwhelm the demand and then the price is going to implode and you know there an old saying about how markets you know they take the stairs up and the elevator down well Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies they took a rocket ship up so they're if they're gonna go down faster than they went up and markets always go down faster than they go up I mean this thing is going to implode and so the people who don't get out in advance are just gonna get trapped in this thing because when it goes down I mean this thing can fall eighty or ninety percent in one day well I have a feeling this debate will continue in 2018 just a wrap now Peter you said you expect higher gold prices we tend to see a January bounce for gold and the mining stocks but you have a certain outlook what prices we can expect when we start the new year look I think the price is going higher there's no way to know exactly how much higher how soon but a lot of it depends on you know the markets and the traders figuring things out I mean once people really come to terms with reality on the true state of the US economy and what the future direction of Fed policy is going to be there's gonna be a mass exit from dollars and a scramble to buy gold and you know there's not a lot of gold available for sale and if a lot of the big pension funds and portfolio managers decide that they just want to have a small allocation to gold as opposed to no allocation at all I mean you're gonna see the the highs from 2011 that 1900 we're going to go through that like a hot knife through butter Peter Schiff euro pacific capital thank you so much for joining us today and Happy Holidays bein to you and thank you for watching we'll have much more on our outlook so be sure to stay tuned you
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