저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 테슬라 2024년 주가 7,000달러 목표를 제시하며 장기 강세론을 펼치고, 반대 측 출연자는 자율주행 및 수익성 측면에서 논쟁을 제기함. 주요 주장: 2024년 전기차 판매 3,400만대 전망(현재 약 200만대), 라잇의 법칙(생산량 증가에 따른 원가 하락) 적용 시 자동차 마진 20%→40%로 개선 전망. 자본효율: 상하이 공장 기준 대당 설비투자 약 1,000달러로 업계 최저 수준 근접, 자동차 산업 전반에서 선도적 위치라고 주장. 자율주행: 테슬라가 레벨5 완전자율주행을 목표로 하며, 2024년까지 로보택시 네트워크 출시 확률을 25%로 가정. 경쟁사(웨이모 등)는 레벨4 중심. 데이터 우위: 테슬라 누적 주행데이터 140억마일 이상(웨이모 2,000만마일), 차량 약 70만대가 데이터 수집. 자체 AI칩은 경쟁사 대비 약 4년 앞선다고 평가. 수익성: 캐시 우드는 평균적으로 수익성 유지 가능하다고 낙관. 반대측은 신차 출시·독일 공장 등 비용 부담과 운영 역량 부족을 우려. 반대 측 견해: 자율주행 기술이 핵심 리스크이며 현재 밸류에이션을 자동차 제조사로서 정당화하기 어렵다고 주장. 다만 발언이 모호해 실제 입장은 불분명. 시장 심리: 최근 약세 의견이 줄고 있으며 개인투자자 매수 압력이 이어질 경우 주가 상승 모멘텀이 유지될 수 있다는 전망. 리스크: 자율주행 상용화 지연, 생산 확대 실패, 수익성 악화 가능성.
다듬은 글
hey I'm Stephen and this is solving the money problem if you knew welcome if you're not welcome back today we're doing yet another reaction video to yet another bull versus bear debate on Tesla on one of the finance networks hope you guys are enjoying this series without further ado let's get into it Kathy let me start with you known for your very a bull case scenario here are seven thousand dollars to share on Tesla by 2024 what gets you to seven thousand there are a number of variables that get us there the first is our forecast for electric vehicles in 2024 is 34 million units up from roughly 2 million last year this comment from Cathy will no doubt leave a few people scratching their heads all I can say on this one is go back and look at historical s-curve adoptions for new disruptive technologies I'm not gonna say anything more on this so that right there is an exponential growth rate the second is our gross margin assumption we are using rights law which you may have heard us discussed before rights law gets us from roughly 20% on auto margins in the fourth quarter to roughly 40% during the next 5 years I'm sure some of you are wondering what the hell is rights law I'll put a link to some of Arc's research and sort of explanation around how this plays into the Tesla story but it's really important that you get an understanding of this the general idea is that as production volumes increase on a certain product of technology its cost inevitably will decline moore's law is sort of similar in this regard but it refers to progress of innovation over time not related to production volume which i think is a very important distinction and i think our car on the right track here and using rights law over moore's law to make these predictions again check the link in the description if you're wondering what the hell are they on about and then we're also looking at capital efficiency capital efficiency we see now from shanghai that tesla can build a car for roughly $1,000 in capital spending per unit that is one of the lowest rates out there this is a really important point cathy isn't just referring to electric vehicles she's talking about the entire automotive industries Tesla's cost per unit of capacity in terms of how much they need to spend on a factory versus how many vehicles it can produce every year it's already approaching industry-leading across the automotive industry this is really important they're a young company it's only going to get better from here and finally our belief that Tesla is furthest ahead in autonomous capability so in that forecast we have a 25 percent chance or probability that Tesla will launch an autonomous taxi network within the next five years this is worth waiting sinking to because our car no Nest has those biggest balls yet when you look at that reasoning in this case for example they're only assuming that in the next five years by 2024 Tesla only has a 25% chance of launching their Robo taxi network this is really important because a lot of people just assume that but I have some really crazy price target and they're insane they're like hyper bulls that don't see any reason and just pull numbers out of their ass but when you actually look at their analysis and the numbers and the probabilities that they've assigned a certain outcome you start to see a pretty reasonable picture the fact that the price target seems a little bit insane now it's not their fault look at their reasoning and then look at the end result and you'll be like oh hang on a minute I think actually they're pretty reasonable in their analysis here they're just looking at facts and data points that other people are completely ignoring or just totally oblivious to you so add let me bring you in here because this strikes home for a lot of people this ability for autonomous driving are we not yet at level five or as Tesla not yet leading the way on level five yeah so I mean I think I I agree that that actually autonomous drive technology is really kind of a key issue here because I don't see at Tesla I can conserve justify its current valuation as a auto manufacturer and there are other issues with evie forecast that we can get into too but I think autonomous is the key issue here because that's the only way they get out of rights law side what is fundamentally a capital intensive low margin business very reasonable point so far mr.
bear but when you look at Tesla its approach to autonomy is very very different than basically everybody else in the space all right so let's pay attention to this argument is being built up the foundation so far about Tesla's potential to win autonomy is they're doing a different approach to everyone else let that sink in they're taking money they're selling cars to enter private ownership they're using a very limited sensor suite in order to make that vehicle affordable I'm starting to get those is this bear actually a Tesla bull vibes from this guy his point is true Tesla has very intentionally selected affordable hardware to achieve full autonomy whereas most of the competition is using tens if not hundreds thousand dollars of equipment to try and solve the same problem think about this for a minute are you going to make a mass-market affordable car if you've got a hundred thousand dollars of sensor sweets stuck on it I don't think so sure the costs might come down over time but why put all this absurdly complicated technology on a vehicle when we know that humans can drive pretty well with just two cameras I think he's on the bull side might be a bear in disguise has just really been coerced into coming on television but doesn't want to actually say anything bearish that makes him sound like a fool so far these points are all true and relevant it's just how you interpret them that makes them meaning um and they're promising they can do level 5 when basically all the other full autonomy developers are focused on level 4 which means sort of developing a system to be used within a specific geofence and as a Robo taxi fleet for example in one city yeah I'm pretty sure this guy's a bull in disguise and he does want to say anything that makes him sound like an idiot he's trying to like throw out points that could be interpreted as bearish but come on the point now is everyone else is only aiming for level for autonomy Tesla is aiming for level 5 of autonomy this is true if we run things forward a little bit and everyone hits their targets who ends up with full autonomy and who doesn't and let's carry on I think you know if if we're sort of at the you know Kitty Hawk stage of autonomous vehicles with I was recently in a way mo that was fully driverless um you know I think Tesla's sort of like a guy who's putting down or accepting deposits for like an f-35 what they're promising is is so disconnected from where everybody else in the space is you just hear that let's watch that again let's listen to what he just said one more time what they're promising is is so disconnected from where everybody else in the space is yes yes yes nothing else to add you guys get it right good it just doesn't seem plausible all right so after all that buildup you know point after point after point after point the culmination of his argument essentially boils down to this what Tesla is aiming for it's so incredible so amazing so disruptive so transformative and no one else appears to even be in the race that clearly it's very unlikely that tez will achieve this astonishing thing they're trying to achieve that's it there's no wait a minute this particular competitor is much further ahead on data or this particular competitor has demonstrated a much higher level of autonomy none of this it's just too good to be true it can't possibly happen right right right Cathy another point that you mentioned on was their margins are you fully confident that Tesla is able to be profitable really from here on out yes on average on balance yes I just want to touch on this profitability point really quickly and I've got a pro tip for you guys and girls if you're ever talking to somebody about Tesla and they bring up their concerns about Tesla's lack of profitability or they're concerned about Tesla's ability to be profitable in the future you know immediately you're talking to somebody who either a hasn't looked at the information they don't have all the informations and they can't draw a reasonable conclusions or B there's something wrong with their reasoning faculties they have looked at all the information yet their interpretation of that information leads to really absurd conclusions it's not worth even wasting your time point them in the direction of the data and if you've already done that and they still don't get it it's their loss if you don't get it you just don't get it I just like to address the autonomous points that Edward so autonomous is an artificial intelligence project Tesla is taking a leaf from apples book here Apple was moving the smartphone market ahead so quickly so much more quickly than Nokia Ericsson and Motorola that it had to design its own chip and the rest is history what a great analogy the point here is that Tesla is pushing the technology had so fast that it literally can't rely on other people to provide the core technologies for this to happen they need to make it themselves because they're so far ahead that no-one else is in the game no one else is even creating this stuff Tesla is the only auto manufacturer to have designed its own AI chip and our analysts are AI analyst James Wang who spent nine years at Nvidia took a look at the specs of that chip and said Tesla is four years ahead of any other autonomous or auto manufacturer the other way it's ahead is with data the winner in an AI project has the most data and the highest quality data Tesla has 14 billion plus miles of real-world driving data while way mo the closest competitor in this regard has 20 million 14 billion 20 million and Tesla has 700,000 cars out on the roads you could consider them robots collecting this data and sending it back every night and they have the best AI team we believe not just in the auto industry but maybe in almost any industry that is the micro moment from Cathy right there it'll go over a few people's heads but understanding deep learning and how these neural networks actually improve if you get this you understand how important data is the fact that Tesla's data lead is literally orders of magnitude beyond anyone else just its game set and match but if you don't get it you don't get it right and final question here to you are you doubting Tesla's ability to be profitable from here on out oh no she didn't well after I've just said my thoughts on anyone that doubts Tesla's ability to be profitable in the future she asked the question how will he answer given my hallucination is that he in fact a bull that's been brought in to play the bear role doesn't want to make himself look like an absolute on television maybe he's seen one of my bull vs.
bear reaction videos unlikely but hey you never know but the point here is it's gonna be very interesting to see how he delicately answers this question or does he just self-immolate and say yes I really doubt their ability to be profitable in the future despite the evidence pointing to the contrary I'm look I think that they have a lot on their plate that they have to to pay for what a Doge let's watch this again I'm not gonna interrupt I'm gonna let him do the fool answer I'm gonna replay that little bit and just let it go through Ava I'm look I think that they have a lot on their plate that they have to to pay for they have a couple of products the semi the roads around the model Y which all have to come out this year they're building this Factory they're building a factory in Germany has to be a lot more expensive they have a lot to do and the problem with sort of approaching Tesla is a tech company people imagine that as like a software company where you sort of make a certain amount of fixed cost investment and once that's amortized the variable cost of each additional copy you sell is almost nothing I'm you know the auto industry simply isn't like that and and where we see you know and Tesla is very easy to understand in terms of these stories but the problem is is that this is not a CH startup this is a company with a track record and you know operation of the operational fitness required to be sustainably profitable in this really brutally tough business I'm you know is one of habits this is what we've learned from Toyota it's it's about culture and and so you can't just flip a switch and say we're gonna be profitable now it's about developing a culture of continuous improvement and really detailed focused and I just haven't seen that that track record there I'm sorry but I didn't interrupt it's been a minute more than a minute that he's been squirming his way through this answer is anyone else is uncomfortable as I am watching this it's just rewind I'm not gonna replay this bit again but we won and just watch the body language dodge dodge is like in bullet time on the matrix just like anything other than answering the question directly but he knows you'll have to and so between that lack of operational sort of fitness and and the huge expenses that they have to deliver on what they've already promised I think it's very can be very difficult for them to be profitable so if his closing point here comes down to this Tesla does things that are difficult it will be difficult for Tesla to do the things they want to do no Sherlock everything Tesla does is difficult yet they continue to execute I don't blame the guy I totally get it you don't want to go on TV as a bull in a bears disguise and make it absolute full of yourself saying completely absurd stuff that you just know it's not going to play out because yes somebody like me is going to make a video featuring your stupidity so well played sir you're not going to be made a mockery of in a few months time because you didn't say anything dumb however you did a great job of dodging questions but the foundation of this argument here is effectively it seems unlikely Tesla can do what they want to do and it'll be difficult for Tesla to do what they want to do this is not new information but it hints it's something a little bit more important and this is the whole point of the video why I continue to make these reaction videos a few months ago I began calling it the analyst will wake up they will see what's before our very eyes they will get it it will take time but they'll get it and this shift in sentiment is happening as we speak only a few months ago there were bears at the drop of a hat willing to go on CNBC or Yahoo Finance and make absurdly bearish calls about Tesla but just completely ridiculous because the sentiment was very negative lots of fighting the media autism is going to go bankrupt but it's becoming so painfully obvious and apparent that Tesla is executing they're going to get this stuff done yes it's difficult but they're going to get it done that all the bears are now in hibernation and all that's left on these finance networks is what I hallucinate to be a bull in a bear's disguise coming on trying to promote their company or service by okay I'll play the bear even though I'm not really a bear get myself on TV that's good for my business or whatever but they're not willing to embarrass themselves too much I doubt they've been watching my bull vs.
bear reaction videos maybe they have maybe that's why the Bears are in hibernation but the point here is this if sentiment continues to shift which we're seeing right now as I called this is the sentiment shift that's happening retail investors who previously sat at home with their mouths open being spoon-fed what they should believe and invest in from CNBC and other me you outlets will no longer be being spoon-fed such bearish sentiment that will then open their mind up to the possibility that hi hang on a minute well that fight about Tesla I'm not hearing it anymore maybe I'll look into this Oh what the hell holy crap they're dominating this whole new burgeoning Eby market they've got an unassailable lead and data the full self-driving chip they're profitably producing Emmys blah blah blah blah blah hmm I'm but investing this company and if we see continued buying pressure from retail investors and the sentiment change continues we may see Tesla stock's price run continue this momentum may be sustained as this whole sentiment shift continues to play out through the finance media and through Wall Street one final closing statement I think that most of Wall Street knows the story about Tesla now they're not publicly talking about it maybe they're building our positions there's some shady stuff going on I don't know but it really really blows my mind that anybody who's smart enough to be working for an investment firm or as an analyst anything like this he's got the brains to have got the job it's not able to then apply those brains to look at the evidence and your similar conclusions the future for Tesla is very bright yes will be difficult but guess what Tesla knows how to execute I'm Stephen Marc Ryan this is solving the money problem and I love you all PS if you're still watching you're awesome this channel is kind of blown up since it launched and I'm working on making the best possible content for you guys but it takes time consider supporting the channel at patreon.com slash solving the money problem so I can continue creating content for you guys there's a link in the description either way the best kind of support is you being here and watching so thanks again
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