저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 우려 속에서도 강세장이 수년간 이어질 수 있다는 낙관론이 우세하다. 자금 흐름: 스파이더(SPY) 등에서 약 35억 달러 유출, 채권·금·저변동성 등 방어 자산으로 불안 신호가 보이나, 기술 섹터 ETF에는 2월 들어 약 30억 달러가 유입되어 1년 넘게 최대 수준이다. 기술주 랠리: 기술 섹터가 올해 두 배로 오른 상황이며, 애플 매출 감소 경고에도 넷플릭스·아마존·페이스북 실적이 시장을 떠받쳤다. 반도체 ETF(SOXX)는 소폭 유출에 그쳤다. 거시 리스크: 수익률곡선 평탄화·역전, 코로나19로 인한 중국 제조업 둔화, 기업 실적 부진이 우려 요인이나 캐시 우드는 이를 '벽을 오르는 우려(climbing the wall of worry)'로 보고 강세장의 전형으로 해석한다. 조정 가능성은 부정하지 않는다. 우드 포트폴리오 전략: 상위 10개 보유 종목 중 헬스케어 비중이 높으며(약 35%), 유전자 편집 분야의 핵심 특허 보유 3개 종목(CRISPR Therapeutics, Intellia, Editas)을 보유한다. 이들의 합산 시총은 약 50억 달러로 낮다고 주장한다. 핀테크: 블록(스퀘어)을 가장 기대되는 종목으로 꼽고, 캐시앱의 성장 가능성을 Venmo·PayPal보다 높게 본다. 모방 ETF: 기술 파괴 테마를 따라가는 ETF(DTEC, XT, COMP 등)가 등장했으며, COMP는 테슬라 비중이 크고 2월에만 약 4억 달러가 유입되었다. 테슬라: 캐시 우드가 강세 입장을 보이는 대표 종목이나 구체적 목표가는 언급되지 않았다.
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it's a mixed bag and in fact there's some nerves creeping in some early 2019 kind of nerves before I get to that SPL G I want to point out this is a new one you don't see very often Spyder basically made the made this ETF track the S&P 500 and then lowered its feet of three basis points to convene cook Pete with voo and ivv and it's really off to a good start four billion dollars it's kind of a knockoff of spie doing well but you look you've got utilities you've got bonds you've got Treasuries you've got gold you've got low vol that's a little that's some nerves creeping in here in this market let's look at the outflows which also show some nerves as well because we've got about three and a half billion out of spy we've got j and k seeing some outflows right IV v in here even XLF so definitely people are nervous but if you want some good news and I do think overall people are bullish just look at the tech sector the flows into tech ETFs are just rampant right they've taken in about three billion dollars in February and the month isn't even over and you can see that would be the most in over a year easily and look at that last two months so this is a lot of people running into tech and why wouldn't they Tech is doubling the market this year so Taylor there is some nervousness but largely people are bullish on tech and that's a good sign well thank you to Eric Val tunas and this week's round table features Kathy wood she's founder CEO and CIO of arc Investment Management and Katie cry Feld a cross asset reporter for Bloomberg News I want to start with you Kathy would I mean we just heard Eric Val Tunis there and sort of on the massive tech rally that we've seen if it's not coronavirus what is it that slows down or stops this rally that's a very good question we've been climbing the wall of worry and as Eric just mentioned we're still seeing outflows in many of the equity funds so I actually love this dynamic as a portfolio manager the fear associated with once again flattening to inverted yield curves coronavirus you know there's serious slowdown in manufacturing some of the earnings disappointments we're seeing this market is climbing a wall of worry those are usually the strongest bull markets that's not to say we won't have a correction I don't want to suggest that at all but I really do believe this is a very strong bull market and I also believe it could last for years and Katie I want to bring into this I saw over the weekend you know Apple reported sales declining I thought okay this is it we're gonna least have a bad week but it's just not showing up what are you seeing when you really dig into other tech ETFs well there's really not any evidence to speak of that that Apple warning had a broader impact I mean yesterday in particular you had Netflix Amazon Facebook all come in to save the day of course Apple's rallying today so it's kind of like the rally that doesn't stop and you know if you zero into the ETF flows we were really looking for evidence you know obviously you want to write about the news of the day but it really wasn't there you saw a little bit of a reaction and socks that's the iShares chipmaker heavy ETF trading search thereby the most in about two years but at the end of the day that was only twenty six million in outflows which really isn't anything to write home about first fund of this size Cathy you know you are known in part because of your big bull call on a Tesla we're gonna get to Tesla later in the meantime though there are some stocks that give you the same amount of excitement that you find as well from Tesla what are some of those other stocks that give you that same excitement well if you look at our portfolios the top ten in our portfolios you'll find a disproportionate weighting in healthcare now that sounds odd because we're talking about technology here but these companies are technologically enabled and they're going to transform healthcare so in the gene-editing space we own all three of the stocks with the foundational patents in our flagship portfolio and in our genomics portfolio so those are CRISPR therapeutics in Telia and edit Oz now these three stocks together their market caps collectively are a little more than five billion dollars roughly right now if I had told you in the late 90s that there were three stocks with the foundational patents to a technology that was going to cure disease actually cure it not just treat symptoms but cure my guess is the three collectively would have cumulated to 200 or billion dollars in market cap instead we have five billion dollars Apple at one-and-a-half billion is a great stock it's transformed our lives sure but it's not curing disease we think there's huge inefficiency in the the new biotech space alumina is the godfather of this space we could Gina editing wouldn't mean anything if we couldn't identify the mutations in our genomes so now that we can identify the the mutations we're going to be able to edit and correct those programming errors so healthcare is a surprisingly large part of our portfolio almost 35 percent and then FinTech would be another big part of our portfolio our most exciting stock there is square we think that while venmo gets all of the attention for its peer-to-peer lending in or a peer-to-peer I capabilities in venmo PayPal's venmo we think the cash app is as powerful if not more powerful if you look at the searches that are taking place now on Google cash app is getting a disproportionate share and Katie if all these stocks are techy but they're not in the tech sector and Kathy may have started but there's a lot of copycats and they're actually kind of riding her coattails pretty well right yeah it's kind of funny you've seen you know D Tech XT com jump to mind that are trying to ride this disruptor a wave they all launched post-2014 so after art came to market but I want to hone in on comp because it looks a lot like arc I mean again it has this disrupter flavor its biggest holding is Tesla and it's really ridden this boom it's pulled in over 400 million in February alone which is just massive relative to its size it's just over 500 million and it was a lot less about a month ago
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